The Weekly Consensus

The Weekly Consensus

Maeghan Thompson

Story of the Week

General Mills finalizes sale of Canadian yogurt business

General Mills, Inc. has completed the sale of its Canadian yogurt business to Sodiaal. The transaction includes the Canadian operations of several yogurt brands, including Yoplait and Liberte, as well as a manufacturing facility in Saint-Hyacinthe, Que. General Mills announced plans to divest its North American yogurt businesses in mid-September. At that time, the company said it had reached agreements to sell its Canadian business to Sodiaal and its US business to the Lactalis Group for a combined approximately $2.1 billion. The sale of the US business remains on track to be finalized later in 2025, General Mills said.

Apparel & Footwear

VF returns to growth after 2 years of declines

VF Corp. reported $2.8 billion in revenue for the third quarter of its 2025 fiscal year, a 2% rise from last year. This marks the first quarterly revenue growth for the apparel conglomerate in over two years. Revenue was above the company’s own expectation of between $2.7 billion and $2.75 billion. VF attributed the increase to stronger DTC sales and an “outsized wholesale performance” due to additional reorders and lower cancellations. For the quarter, DTC fell 3% and wholesale grew 8%. VF saw growth at The North Face and Timberland, with 5% and 11% revenue increases, respectively. Vans, which has been a drag on the company’s earnings and is a key part of its transformation plan, saw revenue fall 9%. Dickies revenue dropped 10%.

MF Brands Is Negotiating to Sell The Kooples to Groupe Verdoso

MF Brands Group, which bought The Kooples in 2019, said it has entered into exclusive negotiations to sell the French fashion retailer to Groupe Verdoso. “This decision reflects MF Brands’ commitment to repositioning the brand to ensure ambitious growth while aligning with the group’s strategy of focusing on activities that resonate with its DNA, built around premium and global brand universes,” MF said. “Groupe Verdoso, with its proven expertise in transforming and supporting the growth of companies, represents an ideal partner to take over The Kooples brand and guide it into this new chapter of its journey.” The deal is subject to “consultation with employee representative bodies.” Groupe Verdoso is an industrial investment firm that was founded by Franck Ullmann in 1997. It has taken control of more than 30 companies and currently holds significant stakes in eight small and midsized French firms.

Blue Pool Capital Takes Stake in Golden Goose After Failed IPO

Golden Goose, the Italian sneaker maker whose planned listing was derailed last year, said Hong Kong-based investment firm Blue Pool Capital has taken a minority stake. The deal, which was agreed shortly after the IPO was postponed in June, completed on Jan 28, Golden Goose said in a statement. The terms were not disclosed. Private equity firm Permira will keep its majority stake in the brand. Golden Goose Group postponed its Milan listing at the last minute over concerns it would fall on its debut, even after it tempered valuation expectations. Luxury stocks were in a slump, weighed down by doubts over earnings and a drop in demand from China especially.

Levi beats earnings estimates but expects pressure this year from strong U.S. dollar

Levi Strauss issued dismal guidance for its current fiscal year on Jan 29, as the denim maker grapples with unfavorable currency exchange rates, one fewer selling week and a loss in revenue from its Denizen and footwear businesses. The company said it expects sales to decline between 1% and 2%, well behind estimates of 3.7% growth, according to LSEG. It also anticipates adjusted earnings per share will be between $1.20 and $1.25, below estimates of $1.37, according to LSEG. Shares fell about 6% in extended trading.

Athletic & Sporting Goods

Megabass is Latest Outdoor Brand to Partner with L Catterton

Megabass has entered into a strategic partnership with global investment firm L Catterton. The deal positions the Japan-headquartered fishing gear manufacturer for continued expansion by leveraging L Catterton’s operating capabilities and industry network as demand for its products increases.  Megabass and L Catterton will reportedly work closely together to drive growth for Megabass amid consumers’ greater propensity to spend on premium fishing gear in its key markets.  L Catterton said it has solid experience building outdoor brands worldwide, with current and past investments in the space including Airxcel, Heartland RVs, Open Road Resorts, and RealTruck.  The firm remains a majority shareholder in Birkenstock and also owns West Marine, 2XU, and Taxa Outdoor. In the health and wellness space worldwide, current and past investments include Peloton, Equinox, EGYM, Soul Cycle, CorePowerYoga, FlyWheel, Pure Barre, Xponential Fitness, Tonal, Hydrow, BodyTech, ClassPass, and iFIT/NordicTrack, among others.

Unleashed Brands Announces Acquisition of Water Wings Swim School

Unleashed Brands, the world’s first Youth Enrichment Platform providing safe, fun, and enriching environments to help kids learn, play, and grow, today announced the strategic acquisition of Water Wings Swim School, a premier year-round swim school offering high-quality swim instruction for children and adults.  Water Wings currently operates indoor facilities across Nevada, California, Idaho, and Texas and has earned a strong reputation for excellence in swim education and water safety. As part of the growth plan, Unleashed Brands will launch a national franchise program for the brand.  Unleashed Brands currently includes portfolio brands Urban Air, The Little Gym, Sylvan Learning, Snapology, XP League, Class 101, Premier Martial Arts and Water Wings Swim School. The platform was founded to curate and grow a portfolio of the most innovative and profitable franchise brands that help kids learn, play, and grow.

Cosmetics & Pharmacy

Victoria Beckham Beauty names new CEO

Victoria Beckham Beauty has announced the appointment of Lauren Edelman as CEO. Edelman, previously Global Chief Marketing Officer for the beauty brand, will succeed Katia Beauchamp. According to her LinkedIn profile, Edelman will be based in New York and brings some 15 years of marketing experience to the role, having held senior roles at L’Oreal, Chanel and Rose prior to joining Victoria Beckham Beauty in 2023. The company said in a statement, per WWD, “[Edelman] succeeds Katia Beauchamp with whom she worked closely over the last 18 months and who decided it was the right time to leave the business to focus on new opportunities. With an impressive background and tenure at L’Oreal Luxe and Chanel, Lauren brings unparalleled industry knowledge, expertise in brand storytelling and a proven track record of delivering results across all channels.”

Wella Company CEO Annie Young-Scrivner steps down

Wella Company has announced the resignation of Annie Young-Scrivner from her role as CEO and Board Director, citing family matters as a contributing factor. Glenn K. Murphy, the company’s current Board Chair, has been named Executive Chair to oversee the company’s operations during this transitional period. Glenn K. Murphy has served as Wella Company’s Board Chair for two years and brings a wealth of leadership experience, having held prominent roles at Gap Inc., Lululemon Athletica, and Shoppers Drug Mart. Wella Company, founded four years ago as an independent entity, boasts a portfolio of professional and retail brands across hair, nails, and beauty tech segments. Under Annie Young-Scrivner’s tenure, the company built a solid foundation for growth, positioning it to capitalize on future opportunities. Murphy’s appointment signals a continued focus on commercial excellence and accelerated growth, aligning with the company’s ambitions in the beauty industry.

Discounters & Department Stores

Kohl’s cuts 10% of corporate workforce

Kohl’s has downsized its corporate workforce by 10%, according to a statement from Jen Johnson, senior vice president of corporate communications.  The company declined to say how many people are impacted but said it would be fewer than 200 because more than half of the cuts will come from eliminating open roles. The layoffs were first reported by the Wall Street Journal.  The workforce reduction and recent decision to close 27 stores plus a fulfillment center “are both actions to support our commitments to increase efficiencies and improve profitability in the business for the long-term benefit of our associates and customers,” Johnson said.

Dollar General ramps up grocery private label

Dollar General announced plans to add approximately 100 new private brand products during the first quarter of this year. More than half will be under its Clover Valley grocery brand.  The retailer said it is also highlighting its private brands through marketing efforts including a flyer, email and social media to coincide with National Private Brands Month in January.  Dollar General’s efforts come as other discount retailers like Walmart and Grocery Outlet continue to expand their store brand options in food and beverage. Dollar General’s new private label food items will span dry and refrigerated center store categories and include cinnamon rolls, coffee enhancer syrups, white grape peach juice, sugar-free breakfast syrup, eight flavors of ice cream, salad dressings and honey mustard.

Emerging Consumer Companies

Troy Aikman’s Eight Brewing could expand in Texas with $26M funding

Troy Aikman, the last Cowboys quarterback to win a Super Bowl, knows a thing or two about helping fans relax. His low-calorie, low-carb beer brand, Eight Brewing Company — named after his No. 8 jersey — now could be expanding across Texas with reports of a multimillion-dollar fundraising effort. Eight, which launched in 2022, has raised more than $26 million from investors, according to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission by FL101 Inc., the official name of Eight Brewing Co. The increase in investments will reportedly help the company expand across Texas and into Oklahoma through 2026, according to the Austin Business Journal.

Gaia, New York-based fertility platform, raises $14 million

Fertility prediction and insurance startup Gaia has raised $14 million in funding led by Valar Ventures. The round will support the company’s U.S. expansion, building on its 2022 London launch when it raised a $20 million Series A. Founded with an initial focus on IVF, Gaia has expanded to include egg freezing, egg donation, and embryo batching. The company uses personal and fertility clinic data to predict treatment success probabilities and offers tiered financial protection plans where customers only pay full treatment costs upon achieving specific outcomes.

Food & Beverage

Ferrero to acquire protein snacks brand Power Crunch

Sweet snacks giant Ferrero Group plans to acquire protein bars and snacks brand Power Crunch from Bio-Nutritional Research Group Inc. Under the transaction, financial terms of which weren’t disclosed, Ferrero is slated to take over Bio-Nutritional Research Group’s office site in Irvine, California, and about 50 employees will join the Ferrero Group in North America. The product lineup for Power Crunch, founded in 1996, includes Original Power Crunch protein energy, Power Crunch Pro high-protein and Power Crunch Kids protein wafer bars for adults and children, as well as Power Crunch Proto Whey protein powder and Power Crunch Protein Crisps chip snacks.

Specialty egg company acquires Pasture Brands Holdings

Pete & Gerry’s Organics, LLC, a specialty egg company with organic, free range and pasture-raised eggs sold under Pete & Gerry’s and Nellie’s Free Range brands, has acquired Pasture Brands Holdings, LLC from Benford Capital Partners. Financial terms of the acquisition were not disclosed. “Back in 2021, I set out to find a financial partner with a demonstrated track record of scaling food and consumer brands,” said Ryan Miller, chief executive officer of Pasture Brands. “Partnering with Benford Capital has been instrumental in accelerating our growth. With BCP’s strategic guidance and highly engaged approach, we were able to achieve our growth goals and I’m excited to continue leading the company in this next chapter.” Pasture Brands Holdings, which was formed in December 2021 to acquire Farmers Hen House, has been a part of Benford Capital Partner’s portfolio for approximately three years.

Fevertree shares soar after Molson Coors takes stake

Shares of Fevertree Drinks surged almost 24% after Molson Coors took an 8.5% stake in a $88 million deal that gives the beer giant exclusive rights to market the British company’s cocktail mixers and tonic water in the United States. As the thirst grows for non-alcoholic drinks, Danish brewer Carlsberg last July agreed to buy British soft drinks maker Britvic for $4.2 billion. Fevertree, which generates more than a third of its revenue in the United States, forecast low-single-digit growth for 2025 as the partnership takes effect, double-digit growth in 2026, and a sustained increase in medium-term revenue.

Grocery & Restaurants

Whole Foods CEO Jason Buechel to oversee all Amazon grocery

Whole Foods Market CEO Jason Buechel is getting an even bigger job. Buechel will now lead Worldwide Grocery Stores (WWGS) for Whole Foods parent Amazon, while keeping his chief executive post with the Austin-based, health-focused supermarket retailer, the retail giant announced Monday. He will report to Worldwide Amazon Stores CEO Doug Herrington. “In his time as CEO, Jason has unlocked our ability to make high-quality natural and organic groceries more affordable and accessible to customers, helping WFM achieve record sales growth and expand to over 535 locations,” Herrington said in a message sent to all Amazon employees.

Starbucks Earnings Top Estimates, But Same-Store Sales Decline

Starbucks on Tuesday reported that its same-store sales slid for the fourth consecutive quarter, but the company’s quarterly earnings and revenue beat Wall Street’s expectations. The coffee giant kicked off a turnaround plan last quarter in the hopes of reviving its U.S. business, which has slumped over the past year. “While we have room for improvement, we’re making progress as planned, and have confidence we’re on the right track,” CEO Brian Niccol said in a video released on the company’s website Tuesday afternoon. He added that the company has seen a “positive response” to the early steps it has taken. Those tweaks have included removing extra charges for nondairy milk options, focused its marketing on its coffee and beginning a menu overhaul.

Sun Holdings acquires casual-dining Uncle Julio’s out of bankruptcy

Sun Holdings, the franchise group, has acquired the casual-dining Uncle Julio’s concept in bankruptcy proceedings and added it to its Mexican-cuisine holdings of Taco Bueno and Freebirds World Burrito, the company said. Farmers Branch, Texas-based Sun Holdings said the 39-unit Uncle Julio’s, founded in 1986, was acquired by its affiliate Next Restaurants in December. Four units do business as Hacienda Colorado. Terms were not disclosed. The company, which franchises other concepts, also owns the 130-unit quick-service Taco Bueno and the 64-unit fast-casual Freebirds World Burrito, which it acquired in August last year, a spokesperson said.

Home & Road

The Container Store emerges from Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The Container Store is back from bankruptcy.  In a release, the company said it “achieved the objectives it set for this process” in late December. That includes refinancing its short-term debt, reducing “previous long-term debt obligations,” gaining access to $40 million in new money financing, and “modifying its asset-backed lending facility to add $40 million in upsized capacity.”  CEO Satish Malhotra — a former Sephora executive who took the top job in 2021 — called this a “new chapter” for the 46-year-old company, adding that it has a “healthier balance sheet that positions the company for profitable growth.”  It has been unprofitable for the past two fiscal years, with losses tallying about $10 million for the fiscal year ended Sept. 28, 2024.

Ethan Allen sees 6% sales decline, touts North American manufacturing edge

Business at Ethan Allen Interiors contracted in both the retail and wholesale segments during the second quarter. Farooq Kathwari, Ethan Allen’s chairman, president and CEO, said in the earnings release, “We are pleased with our performance that saw incremental consumer interest return back to the home amidst a challenging political and economic environment.” He added that Ethan Allen’s ability to manufacture approximately 75% of its furniture in its own North American facilities “is a major advantage.” For the second quarter, ended Dec. 31, 2024, net sales were down 6% to $157.3 million. Retail net sales declined 3.5% to $134.3 million and wholesale net sales were down 4.2% to $86.5 million. Written orders jumped 15.8% in the retail segment and 14.3% in the wholesale segment. Adjusted operating margin during Q2 was 11.5% compared with 12.8% last year. Net income dropped 13.8% to $15 million, or 59 cents per diluted share.

Roche Bobois Slightly Misses 2024 Revenue Guidance, Says China Boosted Q4

The upscale French furniture-maker Roche Bobois posted preliminary revenues of 414 million euros for the full year, but said its fourth quarter was helped by its U.S., Canada and China businesses. The Paris-based firm said revenue fell 3.6 percent from 429.6 million euros in 2023. The 2024 sales figure was slightly lower to its last forecast pegged at 418 million euros in October. In the fourth quarter, however, the group returned to growth, posting revenues of 113.4 million euros, up 3.5 percent from 109.6 million euros in the same period a year earlier. “The trend continued to improve during the fourth quarter of 2024,” the group said, noting retail sales of directly operated stores came were up 5.7 percent to 98.8 million euros in the fourth quarter. This figure was also helped by double-digit growth in December driven by the performance of the U.S. and Canadian markets, up 29.7 percent in the December period.

Jewelry & Luxury

Kering Sells The Mall Luxury Outlets to Simon Property Group

As Kering focuses on its core luxury brands — including Gucci, Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta — the company is handing off some of its landlord duties to an American expert.  Simon Property Group bought 100 percent of Kering’s The Mall Luxury Outlets, which it established in 2001. The Mall operates two outlet centers in Italy — one near Florence in Leccio and another on the Italian Riviera in Sanremo. The deal nets Kering proceeds of about 350 million euros

LVMH Revenues Flat in Q4 as Fashion Division Slows Decline

LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton said it was confident heading into 2025 after revenues were broadly flat in the fourth quarter, with its key fashion and leather goods division curtailing its declines. The French luxury goods giant, which owns brands including Louis Vuitton, Dior, Sephora and Tiffany & Co., reported revenues of 23.9 billion euros in the three months to Dec. 31, in line with the same period the prior year. Organic revenues grew 1 percent, versus a 3 percent drop in the third quarter. By comparison, Compagnie Finanicère Richemont earlier this month reported a surprise 10 percent revenue uptick during the same period, triggering a rally in luxury stocks.

Swatch Group Profits Slump 75% in 2024, Dragged Down by China

Skittish Chinese consumers at home and abroad dragged down the Swatch Group: The Swiss company’s 2024 net income dropped 75 percent to 219 million Swiss francs, or $242 million at current exchange rates. Revenue for the full year came in at 6.74 billion Swiss francs, or $7.43 billion, down 12.2 percent against 2023’s figures at current exchange rates. It came in short of a consensus forecast of 6.98 billion Swiss francs, or $7.7 billion Swiss francs. Foreign exchange variations had a 192 million Swiss francs impact, while Swatch’s operating profit totaled 304 million Swiss francs, a quarter of what it was in 2023.

Zegna Group revenue rises slightly despite losses at Thom Browne

Ermenegildo Zegna Group posted Q4 revenue of 589 million euros, or about $618 million, up 3.3% year over year, according to a Jan 27 release. Fiscal 2024 revenue increased 2.2% to 1.95 billion euros. Fourth quarter revenue for the company’s namesake Zegna brand rose 8.4% year over year to 353 million euros, driven by strong growth in the U.S. and a strong DTC performance in the combined Europe, the Middle East, and Africa region. Full-year revenue for the brand rose 4.9% to 1.2 billion euros. The Thom Browne brand posted a revenue decrease of 3.7%, to 95 million euros for Q4, largely due to declines in China and EMEA. Full-year revenue was down 16.8% to 315 million euros. Meanwhile, Tom Ford Fashion posted a Q4 revenue uptick of 3.7% to 100.6 million euros and a full-year increase of 33.5% to 314.5 million euros.

Office & Leisure

HG Vora Preps Proxy Fight Against Penn, Nominates Three Directors

HG Vora appears to be taking a proxy fight to Penn Entertainment and has submitted three nominations to the regional casino operator’s board of directors, marking the first time in the asset manager’s history that it had nominated directors to a company’s board. The hedge fund, which is one of Penn’s largest shareholders, blasted the board for “years of poor judgment” and costly missteps in the online sports betting space — an area in which the investor said Penn had no prior “expertise or credibility.” Like some other investors, HG Vora believes Penn’s sports betting follies overshadow the operator’s portfolio of other attractive online assets and its core regional casino business.

Hideaki Nishino named sole CEO of Sony Interactive Entertainment

Hideaki Nishino has been appointed sole CEO of Sony Interactive Entertainment, effective April 1, 2025. Last May, Nishino and Hermen Hulst were named joint CEOs of SIE following the departure of Jim Ryan. Hulst led the studio business group, which oversees PlayStation’s first-party teams and the development of IPs into other mediums. He will continue this role and report to Nishino. As part of the leadership changes, CFO Hiroki Totoki has been promoted to CEO and president of the Sony Group Corporation. SVP of Finance, Corporate Development and Strategy, Lin Tao, will take over Totoki’s previous role as CFO.

Choice Hotels expands upscale portfolio with Westgate partnership

Choice Hotels International entered a strategic partnership with Orlando, Florida-based Westgate Resorts to bring 21 Westgate properties under its reservation system, according to a Jan 30 press release. The Westgate properties span nine states, including nine hotels in Florida as well as resorts in Nevada, Utah, New York, Missouri, Tennessee, South Carolina, Virginia and Arizona. These resorts join Choice’s upscale portfolio, which the hotel company has strategically expanded over the last year. Brand deals like this have become a popular means to gain scale in upper-tier segments, with hotel players including Marriott International, Hilton and Wyndham Hotels & Resorts also inking strategic partnerships in recent months.

Technology & Internet

Apple Shares Rise as Boost in Services Revenue Overshadows iPhone Miss

Apple’s overall revenue rose 4% in its first fiscal quarter, but it missed on Wall Street’s iPhone sales expectations and saw sales in China decline 11.1%, the company reported Thursday. But shares rose about 3% in extended trading after the company gave a forecast for the March quarter that suggested revenue growth. Apple said it expected growth in the March quarter of “low to mid single digits” on an annual basis. The company also said it expected “low double digits” growth for its Services division. Apple said it expected the strong dollar to drag on Apple’s overall sales about 2.5%, and after accounting for currency, the overall growth rate would be similar to the December quarter’s 6%.

Meta Shares Pop After Company Beats on Revenue

Meta shares were up slightly in after-hours trading on Wednesday after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat on the top and bottom lines. Sales in the fourth quarter jumped 21% year over year while net income grew 49% to $20.8 billion, up from $14 billion a year earlier. Meta said it expects first-quarter revenue to be in the range between $39.5 billion and $41.8 billion. The midpoint of that figure trailed analysts’ expectations of first-quarter revenue of $41.73 billion. The company’s Meta AI chatbot surpassed 700 million monthly active users, Chief Financial Officer Susan Li told analysts. That is up from 600 million in December. Zuckerberg said he expects Meta AI to reach one billion users this year. “Once a service reaches that kind of scale, it usually develops a durable, long-term advantage,” Zuckerberg told analysts on Wednesday.

TikTok Traffic Bounces Back as Creators Diversify Amid Shutdown Fears

TikTok has nearly bounced back to its original traffic levels after usage fell 85% when the app temporarily shut down earlier this month, according to Cloudflare Radar. “DNS traffic for TikTok-related domains has continued to recover since service restoration, and is currently about 10% lower than pre-shutdown level,” David Belson, head of data insight at Cloudflare, told CNBC in a statement. DNS, short for Domain Name System, converts website names into IP addresses that browsers use to access internet resources. Cloudflare Radar is the connectivity cloud company’s hub that displays internet trends and insights with DNS to monitor global internet traffic. TikTok briefly shutdown in the U.S. following the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold a law signed by former President Joe Biden in April. That legislation required China-based ByteDance to either divest its ownership of TikTok or have the app face an effective ban in the U.S. on Jan. 19. Consequently, Apple and Google removed TikTok from their U.S. app stores to comply with the law. The app came back online after President Donald Trump said he would postpone enforcement of the ban, signing an executive order on his first day in office to extend the law’s deadline by an additional 75 days to April 5.

Finance & Economy

GDP: US economy grows at slower-than-expected pace in fourth quarter

The US economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace in the fourth quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of fourth quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.3% during the period, below the 2.6% growth expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The reading came in lower than the 3.1% growth seen in the third quarter. Increases in consumer spending and government spending drove economic growth in the quarter, while decreases in investment offset some gains. For the year, the US economy grew at a 2.8% pace, slightly below the 2.9% number seen in 2023 but above the 2.5% growth seen in 2022.

Fed holds rates steady, takes less confident view on inflation

The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate in check on Jan 29th, reversing a recent trend of easing policy as it examines what is likely to be a bumpy political and economic landscape ahead. In a widely anticipated move, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee left unchanged its overnight borrowing rate in a range between 4.25%-4.5%. The decision followed three straight cuts since September 2024 worth a full percentage point and marked the first Fed meeting since frequent Fed critic Donald Trump assumed the presidency last week and almost immediately made known his intentions that he wants the central bank to cut rates. The post-meeting statement offered a somewhat more optimistic view of the labor market while losing a key reference from the December statement that inflation “has made progress toward” the Fed’s 2% inflation goal.

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