The Weekly Consensus

The Weekly Consensus

Maeghan Thompson

Story of the Week

Beyond Acquires Buy Buy Baby in Deal That Could Generate Cryptocurrency Token

With an initiative that further reconstructs the Bed Bath & Beyond business, Beyond has entered into an asset purchase agreement with BBBY Acquisition Co. LLC to acquire the global rights of the Buy Buy Baby brand for $5 million, a deal that may render a cryptocurrency component. The purchase includes specific assets, databases, domains, intellectual property, vendor relationships and content related to Buy Buy Baby. Beyond envisions a brick-and-mortar presence for the Buy Buy Baby brand. It will be integrated with Beyond’s ongoing strategic development of the Bed Bath & Beyond banner, which also includes plans for physical stores, the company maintained.

Apparel & Footwear

PVH Corp lands on China’s ‘Unreliable Entity’ list

In the wake of U.S. trade policy enacting 10% tariffs on all products imported from China, Beijing slapped levies of 10% to 15% on certain U.S. products beginning Feb 10, including those from the parent company of Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein, placing PVH on its “unreliable entity list.” Beijing specifically targeted PVH Corp because of the company’s refusal to source cotton from the Xinjiang region in light of widespread accusations of human rights abuses and forced labor against Uyghur Muslims. The boycott spurred China to launch an investigation into PVH in September, alleging violations of “normal market transaction principles by disrupting transactions with Chinese enterprises, organizations, or individuals and implementing discriminatory measures related to Xinjiang products.”

Capri Hit Hard by $675M Impairment Charge in Q3

Capri, which owns Michael Kors, Versace and Jimmy Choo, logged a $675 million non-cash impairment charge against its assets in the third quarter, hitting the bottom line hard. Net losses for the quarter tallied $547 million, or $4.61 a diluted share, a steep drop off from earnings of $105 million, or 88 cents, a year earlier. On an adjusted basis, income fell to $54 million from $142 million a year earlier. Capri has not acknowledged a potential sale since WWD first reported on it in December, but it’s been an active process that has drawn some familiar names. Former Gucci CEO Marco Bizzarri, as well as Prada, are said to be taking a close look at Versace while Jimmy Choo cofounder Tamara Mellon is said to be trying to buy back that brand.

Columbia Sportswear Company’s sales rise 3% in Q4 2024

Apparel and footwear brand Columbia Sportswear Company has reported net sales of $1,096.6 million in the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2024, an increase of 3 percent year-over-year. The gross profit rose to $560.5 million from $536.2 million in Q4 2023, and gross margin expanded 51.1 percent of net sales from 50.6 percent of net sales for the comparable period in 2023. “I am encouraged that sales returned to growth in the fourth quarter, and we expect continued growth in 2025 across most brands and regions. During the year, we made substantial progress on our inventory reduction efforts, achieved cost savings through our Profit Improvement Program, and returned meaningful cash to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends,” said Tim Boyle, chairman, president, and CEO.

Boot Barn Q3 Earnings Top Estimates

Boot Barn came out with quarterly earnings of $2.43 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.81 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 2.1%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this Western apparel and footwear retailer would post earnings of $0.93 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.95, delivering a surprise of 2.15%. Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.

 Janie and Jack launches third-party marketplace

Children’s apparel brand Janie and Jack announced the launch of a third-party marketplace that will enable sellers to integrate their products on Janie and Jack’s website. The effort expands Janie and Jack’s e-commerce site beyond apparel to include home furnishings, decor, toys, and health and wellness, among other categories. The Janie and Jack marketplace will drive new revenue and bolster the company’s product assortment as it positions itself as a “one-stop destination” for families.

 Athletic & Sporting Goods

Quiksilver, Billabong Retailer Liberated Brands Files Bankruptcy

Liberated Brands, which until recently operated skateboard and surfing-inspired retail brands including Quiksilver, Billabong and Volcom, has filed bankruptcy as more customers choose “fast fashion” competitors.  Liberated sought court protection in Delaware, saying it intends to close its stores as part of a wind-down of its North American operations. The company, which had operated the brands under a deal with brand licenser Authentic Brands Group LLC, said it will also seek to sell its international businesses and has closed its corporate offices and laid off nearly 1,400 employees.  The bankruptcy filing caps a rapid rise and sudden fall of a business that was founded in 2019 after Volcom’s management team sold that brand to Authentic, which has acquired several several retail brands through Chapter 11. Liberated listed more than $100 million in liabilities on its Chapter 11 petition and has lined up a $35 million loan to fund the bankruptcy.

Under Armour lifts profit forecast on full-price sales, North America recovery

Under Armour raised its annual profit forecast again after topping quarterly results, as the sportswear maker reaps the benefits of dialing down on discounts and a recovery in demand in North America and Asia.  Under Armour has introduced newer product styles such as Phantom Fore Golf shoes and Unstoppable Fleece joggers to fend off competition from fresh and innovative brands including Roger Federer-backed On and Deckers Outdoor’s Hoka.  Customers seeking trendy shoes and apparel also lifted sales for athleisure brands during the crucial holiday quarter.

Cosmetics & Pharmacy

L’Oreal to sell back €3 billion stake in Sanofi

L’Oreal has announced that it will sell part of its stake in Sanofi back to the pharmaceutical firm. The French beauty giant will cash in 29.6 million shares at €101.50 as part of Sanofi’s share buyback program, netting a tidy €3 billion. According to a report published by Bloomberg, the sale will reduce L’Oreal’s stake from 9.4 percent to 7.2 percent. Sanofi’s shares have put on some 20 percent over the last 12 months, Bloomberg reports, and L’Oreal is taking advantage of the gain in order to ‘optimize’ its balance sheet after a series of acquisitions.

Maesa sells European, Middle Eastern operations to Kdc/One

Maesa plans to divest its European and Middle Eastern operations by selling them to Knowlton Development Corporation, also known as Kdc/One. Kdc/One is a company focused on custom formulation, packaging design, and manufacturing solutions for many beauty, personal care, and home care brands.  The new organization will combine kdc/one’s packaging and formulation capabilities with Maesa EMEA’s ability to develop storytelling, creative designs, and on-trend consumer products.  Transaction details were not disclosed.

Ulta Beauty Partners with Alshaya Group for Middle East Expansion

Ulta Beauty has announced a strategic partnership with Alshaya Group to launch its first stores in the Middle East, with an expected debut in late 2025. Ulta Beauty will enter the Middle Eastern market through a franchise agreement with Alshaya Group, one of the region’s largest retail operators. The companies did not disclose financial details but confirmed that the first stores will open in late 2025.  Alshaya currently operates over 4,000 locations across the Middle East, North Africa, Turkey, and Europe, with a portfolio that includes Estée Lauder, H&M, and Starbucks. Ulta Beauty’s move into the Middle East aligns with its broader international growth strategy, allowing it to tap into a region with strong demand for prestige and mass-market beauty.

Give Back Beauty Acquires AB Parfums to Strengthen Fragrance Portfolio

Give Back Beauty (GBB) has signed an agreement to acquire AB Parfums SpA, formerly known as Angelini Beauty, from Angelini Industries. The acquisition includes AB Parfums’ subsidiaries, brands, assets, and fragrance licenses, further expanding GBB’s presence in the prestige and lifestyle fragrance sector. AB Parfums is the global fragrance partner for brands such as Trussardi, Laura Biagiotti, Angel Schlesser, and Armand Basi, while also distributing major L’Oréal Group fragrance brands across key European markets. For Give Back Beauty, this acquisition strengthens its competitive edge in the fragrance market. GBB’s portfolio includes partnerships with Tommy Hilfiger, Elie Saab, Chopard, Zegna, Philipp Plein, and Mercedes-Benz, as well as collaborations with Dolce & Gabbana, Olaplex, and Billie Eilish.

L’Oréal buys minority stake in Jacquemus

L’Oréal has acquired a minority stake in independent French fashion label Jacquemus, forging an “exclusive beauty partnership” with it, the French cosmetics giant announced on Friday.  Terms of the transaction were not disclosed. Jacquemus, a high-end label founded in 2009 by designer Simon Porte Jacquemus, is especially popular with fashionistas and celebrities, and its runway shows are always highly anticipated.

 Discounters & Department Stores

Walmart’s latest acquisition is a shopping mall in Pennsylvania

Walmart is now a mall owner. The big-box retailer confirmed that it bought Monroeville Mall, which is roughly 12 miles east of Pittsburgh.  In a statement, Walmart said it “is very interested in being part of any future redevelopment of this site.” It declined to share specific plans for the future of the mall.  CBL Properties sold the mall in a $34 million all-cash deal, according to a news release from the Tennessee-based mall owner in late January. The company did not name the buyer at the time.  Walmart’s purchase is an example of the unexpected ways that malls are being redeveloped and repurposed. Shopping centers have added new restaurants, turned former stores into apartments or gotten demolished for completely new uses, as mall anchors like Sears have shuttered and others like Macy’s are downsizing.

Costco starts off 2025 with yet another sales gain

Costco Wholesale Corp. started the year off with yet another sales gain, saying in a release that revenue last month rose 9.2% year over year to $19.51 billion.  For the four weeks ending Feb. 2, same-store sales rose 7.5%, Costco said. Sales in the smaller e-commerce segment rose 13.6%.  Traffic was up during the month, and higher gas prices helped nudge sales higher, according to a recorded message discussing the results. A tougher foreign-exchange backdrop acted as a counterweight, however.

Simon Property Group turns to ‘B’ malls for growth

After years of focusing on investing in its A malls — those that attract higher traffic, sales and rents — Simon Property Group sees opportunity for growth at B malls.  Plans over the next two years include adding tenants, filling empty space and generally “updating the look, feel of the place,” CEO David Simon told analysts Tuesday. He did not describe the scale of the project in dollar terms or number of properties.  Otherwise, the properties involved haven’t been specified, though Simon said they will include not just the company’s traditional malls, but also outlets and mills.

 Emerging Consumer Companies

Damdam Tokyo raises US$30 million in seed round led by Silas Capital

Damdam Tokyo has raised US$30 million in a seed funding round led by Silas Capital. Habitat Partners, Joyance Asia, Fab Ventures, and Top Knot also participated in the round. The J-beauty brand made its debut in Sephora US stores in the fall. Japan is Damdam’s largest market currently, but with this new investment supporting product development, expansion of the US team and Sephora partnership, the US could take the top spot by the end of the year, according to a report published by Business of Fashion.

Archive, resale platform for brands, raises $30 million

Archive, a technology company that powers profitable resale businesses for brands, announced that it secured $30 million in Series B funding, led by Energize Capital, bringing its total funding to date to $54 million. Other participants included returning investors Lightspeed Venture Partners, Bain Capital Ventures, G9 Ventures and Capital F, as well as new investors Woodline Partners LP and Frontline Growth. Archive will use the new funding to further develop its resale intelligence software, accelerate its global expansion, and invest in new product innovation and services to drive profitability for brands across a growing array of retail categories, including apparel, footwear, accessories, home goods, furniture, toys, electronics and outdoor gear.

Food & Beverage

JM Smucker to divest some sweets brands for $40M as it focuses on Hostess

JM Smucker plans to sell its Cloverhill and Big Texas brands, as well as certain private-label products, to JTM Foods for $40 million as the Jif peanut butter owner looks to focus on growing the recently-acquired Hostess brand. Smucker estimated full-year net sales from the divested sweets brands and private label products to be $60 million. Approximately 400 employees will move to JTM, with the all-cash transaction expected to close in the fourth quarter of the company’s fiscal year ending April 30. Smucker, which inherited Cloverhill and Big Texas as part of its $5.6 billion purchase of Hostess Brands in 2023, said the sale would help it cut costs and reduce complexity across its manufacturing network.

Legacy Bakehouse Acquires Classic Cookie

Legacy Bakehouse, a Wisconsin-based contract and private label manufacturer of baked snacks, announced the acquisition of Mannon Specialty Foods, Inc. dba Classic Cookie a Sevierville, TN-based baker of premium cookie products. This acquisition expands Legacy’s baking categories and geographic reach while adding a retail brand with national distribution. This is the second bakery acquisition by Legacy Bakehouse in six months, having acquired the production site and assets of Angelic Bakehouse in July of 2024.  Classic Cookie, founded in 1984, sells its premium cookies through Walmart as well as other national and regional retailers and distribution partners. The company’s products are also a favorite among fundraising organizations nationwide. Classic Cookie operates a 50,000 sq. ft. SQF commercial bakery in Sevierville, TN, which was recently expanded to accommodate continued strong growth.

Diageo to build $415M alcohol plant in Alabama

Diageo North America is spending about $415 million to build a 360,000-square-foot manufacturing and warehousing facility in Alabama for its leading alcohol brands. The facility is expected to create approximately 100 jobs and will manufacture alcoholic beverages from Diageo’s portfolio. The plant brings Diageo closer to its distributors in the South, allowing the company to reduce transportation times and water usage. The Guinness maker said the investment is part of a broader effort to boost the strength of its global supply chain by cutting down on production costs and improving sustainability.

Grocery & Restaurants

Chipotle Earnings Beat Estimates; Stock Falls on Weak Guidance

Chipotle Mexican Grill on Tuesday said traffic to its restaurants keeps rising, helping the company top analysts’ estimates for its quarterly earnings. However, the burrito chain disappointed investors with its same-store sales forecast for 2025 and commentary about weaker January traffic. The company’s net sales climbed 13.1% to $2.85 billion. Same-store sales rose 5.4%, narrowly missing StreetAccount estimates of 5.7% growth. Transactions rose 4% in the quarter, continuing the burrito chain’s streak of higher traffic. For the past year, Chipotle has outpaced the broader restaurant industry, which has seen traffic slump as many consumers opt to cook their meals to save money. However, sales have been “volatile” so far in 2025, CFO Adam Rymer said on the company’s conference call.

Waffle House adds surcharge for eggs as prices increase

Waffle House is adding a temporary surcharge to combat the continuing egg shortage driven by the so-called bird flu, or highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPIA). As the latest outbreak of bird flu continues to spread nationally — causing more than 20 million deaths of egg-laying chickens last quarter, according to the USDA — egg prices have skyrocketed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, egg prices rose 36.8% in 2024, which is astronomical compared to the average 2.9% inflation across all consumer categories. Waffle House has stated that in response to this inflation, “restaurants are being forced to make difficult decisions” and that the Norcross, Ga.-based family-dining chain has implemented a 50-cent-per-egg surcharge to all menus.

Home & Road

Tempur Sealy to take ownership of Mattress Firm this week

Tempur Sealy International is prepared to close on its $4 billion acquisition of Mattress firm following the Federal Trade Commission’s indication that it will not seek “emergency relief” through the appellate court. Tempur Sealy said it will close the deal Wednesday. The U.S Court for the Southern District of Texas ruled last week in the matter clearing the way for Tempur Sealy International to close on its $4 billion acquisition of Mattress Firm. Judge Charles Eskridge also granted Tempur Sealy and Mattress Firm its shorter timeframe for the temporary restraining order, shaving four hours of the original order. The closing will culminate 21 months since the acquisition was announced in May 2023 and seven months since the FTC filed a lawsuit to block the deal.

Bassett CEO on returning to profitability, navigating long-term demand challenges

Bassett Furniture reported a profit last week for the fourth quarter, something the company hasn’t done for five quarters. With continued low furniture demand, the company achieved this primarily through a targeted cost-cutting and rightsizing campaign implemented in the middle of last year. “We’ve focused a significant amount of time on analyzing how we can run our business smarter while we navigate the ongoing challenging housing environment,” said Rob Spilman, CEO, on an earnings call. “In 2024, existing home sales were at the level they were in 1995, 30 years ago. And with industry forecasts pointing to only a slight uptick in home sales for 2025, we knew we had to plan for another year of tepid demand.” One of the company’s primary goals under the campaign has been to run on leaner inventory, which it lowered by $8 million at quarter-end from last year. Wholesale inventory was reduced by $6.5 million, largely thanks to the company’s decision to consolidate its two U.S. wood manufacturing plants into one.

Jewelry & Luxury

Former Fendi Chief to Lead Jil Sander

Former Fendi chief executive Serge Brunschwig has been named CEO of Jil Sander, as well as chief strategy officer of the label’s owner OTB Group. Brunschwig, an LVMH veteran, will “further elevate” Jil Sander’s positioning and “contribute to defining an even more ambitious strategic path for OTB,” said group CEO Ubaldo Minelli. OTB has seen significant management rotation in recent years. Its Maison Margiela and Marni units installed new CEOs in 2023 and 2024, respectively, while the top job at group anchor Diesel remains vacant after former chief Eraldo Poletto left seven months into his tenure.

Ferragamo Parts Ways With CEO Marco Gobbetti

Salvatore Ferragamo said CEO Marco Gobbetti would leave next month after little over three years in charge, during which time the former Burberry chief failed to stem a slide in sales at the Florentine brand. Ferragamo, like other family-owned Italian brands, has been struggling to rejuvenate its product offering to adapt to fast-changing luxury consumer tastes. The company has started looking for a new chief executive, it said in a statement on Feb 3rd. Chairman Leonardo Ferragamo will take on executive powers, with help from an advisory committee, once Gobbetti leaves on March 6 and until his replacement is found.

De Beers Confirms It’s Reached New Deal With Botswana

The government of the Republic of Botswana and De Beers Group sent out a joint statement on Monday announcing, “the successful conclusion of negotiations” following four years of sometimes arduous contract talks. The new agreement is “in alignment” with the head of terms the two parties signed on Sept. 30, 2023, the statement said. The deal extends Debswana’s mining licenses beyond 2029 and means Botswana will directly sell a greater percentage of the diamonds mined by Debswana, which is a 50/50 joint venture between Botswana and De Beers.

Pandora Posts Double-Digit Growth After Strong Holiday Season

Pandora ended its fiscal year on a high note, reporting double-digit growth in its fourth quarter and for the full year following a strong holiday season. The jewelry brand has been on a winning streak lately, with Q4 marking Pandora’s sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit organic revenue growth. In its report on its full-year results, released on Feb 4th, the company shared details about what drove U.S. sales, its new e-commerce platform, and its plans for lab-grown diamonds. Fourth-quarter revenue was up 11 percent year-over-year, organically and at actual exchange rates, to 11.97 billion Danish kroner ($1.67 billion), with 6 percent like-for-like (same-store sales) growth. For the full year, revenue grew 13 percent, organically and at actual exchange rates, totaling 31.68 billion Danish kroner ($4.42 billion), with like-for-like sales up 7 percent.

Office & Leisure

Mattel says Barbies and Hot Wheels could soon get more expensive under Trump’s tariffs

Mattel could soon raise the prices of toys such as Barbie and Hot Wheels in response to new tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, executives said on Feb 4th. The toy giant, which manufactures about 40% of its toys in China and less than 10% in Mexico, told analysts it would look to move around its supply chain to mitigate the effect of tariffs, but it is also considering price hikes. “Certainly against the tariff, we have a range of mitigating actions,” said finance chief Anthony DiSilvestro on the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call. He said those actions include leveraging Mattel’s supply chains and “potential price increases.”

Blackstone May Be Mulling Star Entertainment Buy

Private equity behemoth Blackstone is reportedly considering a run at ailing Star Entertainment, but the US investor could wait until the Australian casino operator is put into administration. The mention of Blackstone, which has a long track record in the gaming industry, is the latest in a series of rumors centering around Star. Last week, speculation surfaced that Cerberus Capital Management is in talks with Star’s creditors to acquire some of the operator’s AU$400 million in debt, a sum the lenders believe has little chance of being repaid.

Nintendo posts profit miss as it slashes Switch forecast again ahead of console’s successor

On Feb 4th, Nintendo reported weaker-than-expected top and bottom results for its fiscal third quarter, slashing its forecast for the Switch console ahead of the release of its successor. Nintendo reported its fiscal third-quarter earnings for the period ending Dec 31. The company generated revenue of 432.92 billion Japanese yen ($2.8 billion), falling short of the expected 498.22 billion yen. Net profit came in at 128.53 billion yen, below the forecasted 136.16 billion yen. Compared to the previous year, net profit declined by 6%. While Nintendo’s quarterly results missed expectations, all eyes are on developments regarding the Japanese gaming giant’s Switch 2, the successor to the Switch, which was first released in 2017, and has become one of the company’s most popular consoles in history.

Technology & Internet

Amazon Issues Disappointing Revenue Forecast

Amazon reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter, but it gave disappointing guidance for the current period. Amazon expects sales this quarter to be between $151 billion and $155.5 billion, the company said. Analysts were expecting $158.5 billion, according to LSEG. “This guidance anticipates an unusually large, unfavorable impact” from foreign exchange rates, the company said. The impact amounts to $2.1 billion, or 1.5%, Amazon said. Based on Amazon’s forecast, the company expects revenue growth of only 5% to 9% in the first quarter. At the low end of the range, that would mark the slowest growth on record. Amazon has been able to bolster profits by trimming expenses and through continued strength in the high-margin cloud business.

Amazon set to pass Walmart in revenue for first time

Amazon long ago passed Walmart in terms of market cap, but the e-commerce giant is finally poised to leapfrog its brick-and-mortar rival by another key metric: revenue. For the past dozen years, Walmart held the distinction of being the top revenue generator each quarter. In its earnings release after the close of trading Thursday, Amazon is expected to report revenue of $187 billion, according to analysts surveyed by LSEG. Walmart reports on Feb. 20, and is projected to announce sales of $180 billion. Walmart, which is often dubbed the world’s biggest retailer, in reference to its revenue, still leads the way when it comes to annual sales. The company has turned in more than $600 billion in sales in each of the past two years. That number is expected to reach nearly $681 billion for the latest fiscal year. Amazon is catching up. Based on fourth-quarter estimates, Amazon’s full year revenue for 2024 will come in at around $638 billion, marking the first time it’s surpassed the $600 billion milestone.

Finance & Economy

Job openings hit lowest level since September

Job openings declined more than analysts expected in December, hitting their lowest level since September as investors continued to watch closely for any signs of cooling in the labor market. New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Feb 5th showed 7.6 million jobs were open at the end of December, a decrease from the 8.15 million in November. This marked the largest sequential drop in openings since October 2023. The November figure was revised higher from the 8.01 million open jobs initially reported. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the report to show 8 million openings in November.

Morgan Stanley revises Fed rate cut forecast amid tariff uncertainty

Morgan Stanley joined Barclays and Macquarie in forecasting a single 25 basis point interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve this year, citing uncertainty from President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. The Wall Street brokerage had previously said it expected two 25 bps rate cuts in March and June. Peers Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo continue to expect two interest rate cuts this year. President Trump’s tariff policy is expected to drive up inflation and will increase pressure on the U.S. central bank as it looks to control persistent inflationary pressures.

Homebuyer mortgage demand drops further, a troubling sign for the spring market

Homebuyers are seeing very little reason to get a jump on the all-important spring housing market, even with more listings coming up for sale. Mortgage rates haven’t moved much in the last few weeks, and home prices continue to rise. Mortgage applications to purchase a home last week dropped 4%, compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Demand was flat compared with the same week a year ago. “The average loan size for a purchase loan has increased since the start of the year and continued that trend last week with weaker government purchase activity, which reached $447,300, the highest level since October 2024,” said Joel Kan, vice president and deputy chief economist at the MBA.

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