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The Weekly Consensus

Maeghan Thompson

Story of the Week

Dollar Tree sells Family Dollar for $1B

Dollar Tree has agreed to sell its Family Dollar banner to private equity firms Brigade Capital Management and Macellum Capital Management for just over $1 billion, the discounter said on Mar 26th. Family Dollar will remain headquartered in Chesapeake, Virginia. Dollar Tree acquired its rival about a decade ago for much more — $8.5 billion — and since then, Family Dollar has been a drag on results. The sale to the financial firms, subject to customary closing and regulatory conditions, is expected to close in Q2. The company also reported that, with one less week last year, Q4 net sales rose just 0.7% from 2023 to $5 billion, and store comps rose 2%. Gross margin contracted 130 basis points to 37.6%, and net loss more than doubled to $3.7 billion.

Apparel & Footwear

New Securities Fraud Class Action Suit Against Crocs

The Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP law firm is wrapping up the preliminary stages of its class action case against Crocs Inc. In the lawsuit, the firm is alleging that Crocs misled investors following its 2022 acquisition of Hey Dude by concealing information that negatively impacted the company’s financial results, allegedly leading to an inflated price. “[Crocs] misled investors by concealing the fact that the strong revenue growth exhibited by the company’s Hey Dude brand following its acquisition in Feb. 2022, was largely driven by a conscious decision on the part of Crocs management to aggressively stock its third-party wholesaler pipeline with Hey Dude products, regardless of the level of retail demand being experienced by those wholesalers,” the complaint stated. “[Crocs] pursued this overstocking strategy despite assurances to investors by Andrew Rees, the company’s chief executive officer, that Crocs would not play the game of forcing inventory into [wholesalers] and getting them overstocked.”

Sweden’s H&M posts $2.58 bn profit in Q1 FY25 despite margin pressure

Swedish clothing company H&M Hennes & Mauritz AB group has generated net sales of SEK 55,333 million (~$5.26 billion) in the first quarter of fiscal 2025 ended February 28, 2025, marking an increase of 3 percent year-over-year. In local currencies the net sales increased by 2 per cent with around 3 percent fewer stores than the previous year. The company’s sales performance was strong across Western, Southern, and Eastern Europe, with notable growth in Germany and Poland. Online sales also continued to perform well, indicating that customers value the upgraded digital store. The company’s gross profit amounted to SEK 27,169 million (~$2.58 billion) in Q1 FY25. The profitability was negatively impacted by a weaker gross margin of 49.1 percent, which in turn was affected by increased markdowns and investments in the customer offering.

US firm Carter’s appoints Douglas Palladini as CEO & President

Carter’s, Inc., the leading company in North America focused exclusively on apparel for babies and young children, announced on Mar 26 that Douglas C. Palladini has been appointed Chief Executive Officer and President and as a member of the Board of Directors, effective April 3, 2025. Mr. Palladini brings more than three decades of senior leadership experience with an emphasis on brand and direct-to-consumer strategies. He previously served as Global Brand President of Vans, a division of V.F. Corporation, where he more than doubled global revenue to over $4.2 billion in less than six years. Mr. Palladini achieved these results within Vans’ global fleet of retail stores while meaningfully boosting eCommerce sales across all geographic regions.

Athletic & Sporting Goods

Pro Padel League raises $10 million

Pro Padel League, a North America-based padel league preparing for its second full season in 2025, has raised a $10M seed round led by Left Lane Capital and with investment from Kactus Capital, Gary Vaynerchuk, Epic Padel and the family office of H.I.G. Capital founder Tony Tamer. With the funds, PPL hopes to fuel growth by raising player incentives, expanding its calendar of events and hiring several open executive positions, including CRO, CFO and commissioner. PPL is planning five monthly events for 2025 — beginning in June and oscillating between locations in N.Y., Miami and Mexico — increasing total prize money 30% to $1M, and discussing renewals with the majority of its 16 domestic and international rightsholders from last year, according to Dorfman. Adidas is signed on as a multiyear partner and court provider, while other brands including Eataly, Hyperice, Athletic Brewing and Bullpadel were sponsors in year one.

Rossignol Enters Trail Running Category

Rossignol officially entered the trail running category this month with its designed-for-athletes Vezor 4 shoe with soles produced in collaboration with Michelin. Rossignol also launched the Venosk for everyday trial training on all terrain, alongside a range of T-shirts, polos, sweaters, and shorts.  Rossignol-sponsored athlete Maxime Grenot, an ultra-trail runner, along with the brand’s team of athletes, will provide feedback to the company about its new trail running shoes and apparel products for the spring/summer season. Rossignol opened a new store in Paris’ Marais district in Paris in January and is revamping its Saint-Germain store with plans to develop dedicated retail areas in partner stores within two to three years.

DICK’s Sporting Goods announces purchase of one-of-a-kind Paul Skenes rookie card

Just hours after it became known that the one-of-a-kind, MLB Debut Patch Paul Skenes rookie card sold at auction for $1.11 million, we now know who the winner is. DICK’s Sporting Goods announced that it had purchased the card at auction and it will be put on display at the DICK’s House of Sport store.  The card will be housed in a new space at the Ross Park location that will be known as the collector’s space. DICK’s said that will new space will feature trading cards and memorabilia.  Those spaces will be at DICK’s House of Sport locations across the country in Spring 2025.   The card, which contains the MLB Debut patch from Skenes’ uniform and his autograph, was in a pack of 2024 Topps Chrome Update, which dropped on Nov. 13.

Cosmetics & Pharmacy

Coty Steps Away from Kim Kardashian’s Beauty Venture

Coty Inc. is divesting its 20% stake in SKKN by Kim, moving away from its partnership with Kim Kardashian’s beauty line. Control of the brand will transfer to Kardashian’s shapewear label, Skims, which has seen rapid growth and carries a valuation of US$4 billion. Coty acquired its stake in SKKN by Kim for US$200 million in 2021, though financial specifics of the current sale remain undisclosed. The pivot highlights an ongoing reshuffle within celebrity-backed beauty ventures, driven by efforts to consolidate brand ownership and streamline management. For Coty, this move recalibrates its portfolio while focusing on its core consumer group through remaining investments like Kylie Cosmetics.

Natura Restructures Corporate Framework and Leadership

Natura, the Brazilian cosmetics group, plans to merge its listed holding company, Natura&Co, into its subsidiary, Natura Cosmeticos. The move would establish Natura Cosmeticos as the new parent firm on Brazil’s stock exchange, pending a shareholder vote on April 25. Natura is restructuring to streamline its organization after multiple acquisitions—Avon, The Body Shop, and Aesop—that contributed to profitability challenges. By consolidating under one entity, the group aims to simplify operations and potentially strengthen its focus on its core markets.

Yepoda Gains Series B Funding from Verlinvest

Berlin-based K-Beauty brand Yepoda has secured a Series B funding round led by Verlinvest, a global investment firm focused on consumer businesses. Existing investors V3 Ventures and JamJar Investments also participated in the round. Yepoda reported more than €65m in revenue in 2024, attributed to its presence across France, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Germany. The funding will also facilitate the brand’s planned entry into the US beauty sector. Demand for K-Beauty remains strong in international cosmetics and personal care, with consumer groups showing sustained interest in brands that blend innovation with practicality. The additional financing reflects Verlinvest’s view that further retail and geographic growth could position Yepoda for broader success within the global beauty industry.

Megalabs USA acquires Geologie to enhance skin care offering

Pharmaceutical company Megalabs USA has acquired Geologie, a skin, hair, and body care brand. This follows Megalabs’s majority investment in hair growth brand DS Laboratories. The terms of the deal were not disclosed, but it was stated that Geologie co-founders Dave Skaff and Nick Allen will be stepping down from the business. Founded in 2018 in collaboration with dermatologist Dr Steve Xu, Geologie garnered interest from a predominantly male audience with its skin care offerings. Popular items included Retinol Night Cream, Natural Deodorant, and Tone Control Face Cream. More recently, the brand expanded its presence with the launch of Clear System, an acne care line, now available in over 900 Target stores. Fabian Rivero, CEO of Megalabs USA, commented: “We are thrilled to welcome Geologie into our portfolio as an innovative brand at the forefront of wellness and health for a new generation of discerning consumers.

Elliott explores private equity backing for potential carve-out of Bayer’s €5.9bn consumer health division

Elliott Management held preliminary talks with private equity firms over a potential carve-out of Bayer’s consumer health business, as the activist investor weighs re-engaging with the German conglomerate. The discussions come amid renewed investor interest in consumer health assets. Bayer’s over-the-counter business, which includes brands like Aspirin, Claritin, and Alka-Seltzer, reported €5.9bn in revenue and €1.3bn in EBITDA in 2024. Although buyout groups expressed interest, Bayer is unlikely to pursue a spin-off in the short term, given its ongoing restructuring.

Discounters & Department Stores

Dollarama to acquire Australia’s largest discounter, The Reject Shop

Dollarama Inc. is expanding into new geographies. The Canadian value retailer has entered into an agreement to acquire The Reject Shop Limited in an all-cash transaction valued at C$233 million. The largest discount retailer in Australia, The Reject Shop has more than 390 locations across the country, selling private-label and brand-name products. “Identifying the right opportunity to expand into new geographies and build on our track record as a leading value retailer in Canada and Latin America has been a key objective for the Dollarama team,” said Neil Rossy, president and CEO of Dollarama, which has 1,601 locations across Canada and two territories. Headquartered in Melbourne, The Reject Shop had consolidated sales (C$779 million) for the year ended December 29, 2024. Dollarama said it sees the potential to expand the chain’s footprint to approximately 700 stores by 2034.

Hudson’s Bay starts liquidation at most stores

Canada’s oldest company has begun liquidating inventory at nearly all its stores as it continues to hold out hope for a last-minute option to restructure. The move comes after an Ontario court gave Hudson’s Bay permission to proceed with a revised liquidation plan, which will temporarily exclude six stores from the initial list. The company operates 80 Hudson’s Bay stores and, through a licensing agreement, three Saks Fifth Avenue and 13 Saks Off 5th stores, which are also scheduled to close. The six stores excluded from the liquidation sale include the Hudson’s Bay flagship on Yonge Street in Toronto, a store in the city’s Yorkdale Shopping Center and one at Hillcrest Mall in Richmond Hill, Ontario. The remaining three are in downtown Montreal; Carrefour Laval mall, Laval, QC; and Point-Claire, QC.

Emerging Consumer Companies

Sunday, Boulder-based lawn care brand, raises $25 million

Sunday, a leading provider of environmentally responsible lawn care products, announced that it has raised $25 million in funding from S2G Investments, a firm dedicated to supporting sustainable innovations in food, agriculture, and environmental solutions. The funding will help drive Sunday’s expansion and bolster research and development, broadening Sunday’s product lineup and enhancing its ability to serve more consumers nationwide. As homeowners become increasingly aware of the environmental and health impact of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides, Sunday has emerged as a category leader by leveraging data-driven customization, natural ingredients, and a direct-to-consumer model, while also expanding their presence at big-box retailers like Target, Home Depot, and Walmart.

Good Good Golf raises $45 million

Good Good Golf, the golf media and lifestyle brand with over 1.75 million YouTube followers, announced it has raised $45 million in new funding. NFL legend – and golf enthusiast – Peyton Manning, with his Omaha Productions, is one of the significant investors. The funding is led by Creator Sports Capital, an investment firm founded by Benjamin Grubbs and Brian Kabot. “Good Good Golf has seen incredible momentum as we continue to redefine what it means to be a modern golf brand,” said Matthew Kendrick, Good Good Golf CEO. “This investment allows us to scale our media and commerce initiatives, bringing even more exciting content, products, and experiences to our rapidly expanding community. We’re harnessing the power of fandom to make golf more accessible, dynamic, and engaging for players and fans of all ages.”

Lucky Energy raises $14.2 million

Lucky Energy, a simpler, better-for-you energy drink, announced that it has successfully closed a $14.2 million oversubscribed Series A1 round, bringing its total funding to over $40 million. The round is led by Maveron, with backing from DMG Ventures, Second Sight Ventures, and existing investors: Imaginary Ventures, Brand Foundry Ventures, Sapphire Ventures, and Sugar Capital. The capital secured will fuel the brand’s growth, enabling it to accelerate distribution, introduce new products, support strategic partnerships, and recruit in key business areas. Additionally, the company welcomed Dan Ginsberg, former Chief Executive Officer of Red Bull NA and CEO of Dermalogica®, to its Board of Directors. Lucky Energy has experienced explosive growth, entering 10,000 new doors with plans to expand to an additional 15,000 before the end of the year.

Food & Beverage

Global Eggs agrees to buy Hillandale Farms for $1.1 billion

Global Eggs, a company controlled by Brazilian entrepreneur Ricardo Faria, has agreed to buy U.S. egg producer Hillandale Farms for $1.1 billion, Faria told Reuters on Mar 27th. Global Eggs is based in Luxembourg and operates Granja Faria in Brazil. Faria said the deal is unrelated to tight U.S. supplies due to bird flu, which has driven up egg prices and caused the U.S. to boost imports from Brazil. “Previously, eggs were primarily in demand among lower-income households, but they have become a staple across all social and economic classes,” Faria said. Faria established Global Eggs last year, and the company made its first overseas acquisition, Spain’s Grupo Hevo, in November.

CraftMark Bakery sold in private equity deal

Private equity firm One Equity Partners plans to buy wholesale baker CraftMark Bakery from fellow investment firm CIC Partners. Indianapolis-based CraftMark produces bread and cookie dough, muffins, flatbreads, baked cookies, and filled dough for quick-service restaurants and in-store bakeries nationwide. The company describes itself as “the bakery category experts in frozen dough and batters” for foodservice and private label. Financial terms of the deal, announced March 25, weren’t disclosed. The transaction is expected to be finalized in the second quarter of 2025, pending customary closing conditions.

Buyout firms mull option for Nestle’s $5.4 billion water business, Bloomberg News reports

PAI Partners and Bain Capital are among the buyout firms considering bidding for Swiss food giant Nestle’s water business, which could be valued at about 5 billion euros ($5.38 billion) or more in a deal, Bloomberg News reported on Mar 26th. Clayton Dubilier & Rice and KKR have also been studying the business, Bloomberg News said, citing people familiar with the matter. Bain Capital, Nestle, PAI Partners, and CD&R declined to comment, while KKR did not immediately respond to a request to comment on the report. In November last year, the consumer product giant said it would carve out its 3.3 billion Swiss franc water business into a standalone global unit starting January 1, 2025, and is open to partnerships and deals.

Grocery & Restaurants

Onsite fast-casual concept Nature’s Table acquired by private equity firm DIA Equity Partners

A private equity firm led by former Sonic Drive-In chief executive officer Clifford Hudson has purchased Nature’s Table, a 42-unit fast-casual concept headquartered in Orlando, Fla. The acquisition was made by a subsidiary of DIA Equity Partners LLC (DIA stands for “do it again”), which has four other principals besides Hudson, who was Sonic’s CEO for 24 years, from 1995 to 2018. The acquisition was carried out by Fast Fresh Brands LLC, in which DIA owns a majority interest. Fast Fresh Brands also owns Bee Healthy Café, based in Oklahoma City. Both concepts focus on smoothies, wraps, and salads in onsite locations such as office buildings and gyms.

Mr Gatti’s Pizza opens 15 restaurants inside Walmart stores

Mr Gatti’s Pizza, which announced a partnership last August with Walmart, has opened 15 locations inside Walmart supermarkets and has 23 under construction, with openings scheduled for the first and second quarters, a spokesperson said Monday. The Fort Worth, Texas-based restaurant brand has 92 units open and plans to debut inside more Walmart units later this week and next, she said. Mr Gatti’s, founded in 1969, has 234 units open or in development systemwide. “As we continue to grow, our focus remains on delivering a top-notch experience for our guests and strengthening our ties to the communities we serve,” Travis Smith, executive vice president of Mr Gatti’s Pizza, said in a statement. “Our expansion into new locations and partnerships reflects our commitment to bringing delicious food and fun to families everywhere.”

Home & Road

BuyBuy Baby to relaunch online in May

Beyond announced BuyBuy Baby will relaunch online on May 8. To coincide with the relaunch, the retailer is hosting a “Baby Days” sales event, featuring baby essentials, registry picks and daily giveaways, according to a company press release. Beyond also announced that in May it is launching a crowdfunding offering of a tokenized digital security on fintech company tZero’s brokerage platform that’s linked to BuyBuy Baby intellectual property.

Macy’s Inc. home segment sales tumble by double-digits

The home segment continues to contribute less and less to Macy’s Inc.‘s overall annual sales tally and last year fell to 15.2% of total merchandise revenue. Total sales in the Home/Other category rang in at $3.38 billion for the fiscal year ended Feb. 1, down 10.9% from sales in the previous fiscal year. “Other” in the category primarily includes restaurant sales, allowance for merchandise returns adjustments and breakage income from unredeemed gift cards. While Macy’s Inc.’s other key product segments saw full-year sale declines in 2024, the drop-off was less severe than in home.

Hyundai to invest $21B in US manufacturing

Hyundai Motor Group plans to invest $21 billion in its U.S. operations, the automaker announced Mar 24th.  President Donald Trump, Hyundai Executive Chairman Euisun Chung and Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry jointly announced the investment from the White House, where Trump has made onshoring U.S. manufacturing a key tenet of his domestic agenda.  As part of the investment, Hyundai plans to build a $5.8 billion steel plant in Louisiana. The facility is slated to create more than 1,300 jobs and will supply Hyundai’s electric vehicle production at plants in Georgia and Alabama.

Move by Move, Beyond Looks to Rewrite the Traditional Retail Model

The emergence and rapid evolution of Beyond, the operating entity forged in 2023 from the original Overstock.com operation after acquiring Bed Bath & Beyond assets, is a unique retail development for the housewares and home décor sectors, one being watched by many companies to see if a business deviating so markedly from the traditional model can work. Indeed, Beyond’s decision to offer securities in the form of blockchain tokens brings another twist to the ongoing saga that already was rife with incident, including a successfully completed partnership arrangement with Kirkland’s, a failed agreement with The Container Store, and the recent sale of the Zulily operation completed just last year. Under the leadership of Marcus Lemonis and his team, Beyond is integrating physical and digital elements in new ways. The team is reimagining legacy brands like Bed Bath & Beyond and Buy Buy Baby, moving “beyond looks” to prioritize function, strategy, and data-driven decision-making. With an emphasis on logistics, technology, and customer data, they are challenging conventional retail approaches while aiming to “redefine what it means to be a modern retailer.”

Jewelry & Luxury

Celebrity-Favorite Footwear Brand Alevì Milano Sells Majority Stake

Alevì Milano, the Italian luxury footwear brand beloved by celebrities including Beyoncé, Reese Witherspoon, Zoe Saldaña, Demi Moore, Hailey Bieber, and Kendall Jenner, among others, is ready for its next phase of growth — with a business partner to boot. Founded in 2019 by Valentina Micchetti and Perla Alessandri, the brand has sold a majority stake to Mexico-based Bal Group, a multi-industry business helmed by chairman Alejandro Baillères with interests in retail giant El Palacio de Hierro and jewelry label Tane, among others. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed, but it is understood that the two cofounders have retained a significant minority interest in the company.

Zegna’s profits slide in 2024

Revenues at Ermenegildo Zegna Group, the owner of Zegna, Thom Browne, and Tom Ford Fashion, grew by 2.2 per cent year-on-year to €1.95 billion in 2024, the company said on March 27th. By brand, Zegna’s full-year revenues grew 4.9 per cent at constant currency to €1.16 billion; Thom Browne’s slumped by 16.8 per cent to €314.7 million; and Tom Ford Fashion was up 33.5 per cent to €314.5 million. The group’s performance comes amid a mixed bag of results for luxury in 2024, as post-pandemic splurging screeched to a halt. While Zegna Group was in revenue growth, its adjusted EBIT fell to €184 million for the full year, down from €220 million in 2023. The company said its profitability was impacted by Thom Browne’s underperformance, a decision to streamline the brand’s wholesale operations, and, to some extent, by the investment required to develop Tom Ford Fashion, for which it acquired the license in 2023.

Tous Posts 9% Growth, Revenue Surpasses 500 Million Euros

Tous recorded 9.4% revenue growth in 2024, as sales of the 105-year-old Spanish jewelry brand crossed the 500-million-euro mark for the first time ever. The Manresa, Spain-based jeweler says that EBITDA in 2024 grew 6%, to 114 million euros ($123 million), and net income hit 45 million euros ($49 million). Revenue was 523 million euros ($565 million). Tous now has a presence in 40 markets. After taking its online sales global last year, e-sales now represent 24% of its business. The company’s strategic plan—developed after its founding family took full control last year—calls for 120 million euros in business investment over the next three years. In 2024, it spent 31 million euros on stores, infrastructure, and information technology.

Office & Leisure

Buffalo Games Announces the Acquisition of Boogie Board

Buffalo Games, the leading consumer enrichment platform known for its puzzles, games, and developmental products, is pleased to announce the acquisition of Boogie Board. Boogie Board is the leading innovator and provider of reusable drawing and writing tablets used in creative play, arts & crafts, and learning applications.  This strategic acquisition aligns with Buffalo Games’ core mission to provide innovative and category-disrupting personal enrichment products that support mindfulness and mental acuity, social engagement, and development across a wide range of demographics.  In 2009, Kent Displays launched the Boogie Board brand of reusable writing tablets that leverage patented liquid crystal technologies. Boogie Board’s leading product lines include the popular Sketch Pals™, VersaNotes™, Jot™, and Blackboard™ brands, among others

Pollard Banknote acquires bingo supplier Pacific Gaming

Canadian lottery supplier Pollard Banknote has entered into an agreement to acquire US charitable bingo supplier Pacific Gaming.  The California and Texas-based business, which supplies electronic solutions to the charitable bingo market, will complement Pollard’s existing bingo product portfolio of paper and electronic pull-tabs, pull-tab vending machines, video verifiers and bingo paper and daubers.  The $10 million purchase price will be funded from existing Pollard Banknote cash resources and availability under the company’s senior credit facilities.  The acquisition is expected to be accretive to Pollard Banknote’s net income, with closing of the transaction expected to take place on April 1st.

ADIA acquires minority stake in European Camping Group from PAI Partners

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) is acquiring a significant minority stake in European Camping Group from PAI Partners, as it continues to expand its exposure to European private equity.  The deal, made through a wholly owned ADIA subsidiary, sees PAI retain majority ownership of the French outdoor accommodation provider.  PAI first backed European Camping Group in 2021 and has since scaled the platform, notably through the 2023 acquisition of VacanceSelect. Today, ECG operates across 11 countries under leading brands Eurocamp and Homair, managing a wide portfolio of campsites and mobile homes.  ADIA, which manages approximately $1.06tn in assets, has increased its European investments in recent years. The continent now represents 22% of its portfolio, second only to Asia Pacific.

Technology & Internet

Elon Musk says xAI has acquired X, in deal valuing X at $33 billion

Elon Musk said on Friday that his startup xAI has merged with X, his social network, in an all-stock transaction that values the artificial intelligence company at $80 billion and the social media company at $33 billion. “xAI and X’s futures are intertwined,” Musk, the world’s richest person, wrote in a post on X. “Today, we officially take the step to combine the data, models, compute, distribution and talent.” He added that the merger would, “unlock immense potential by blending xAI’s advanced AI capability and expertise with X’s massive reach.” The purchase price, he said, was $45 billion less $12 billion in debt. Because both companies are privately held and controlled by Musk, the transaction likely amounts to a stock swap, with X investors getting paid out in xAI shares.

Amazon is testing shopping, health assistants, pushes into generative AI

Amazon, in an effort to infuse generative artificial intelligence across a wider swath of its e-commerce universe, recently began testing a shopping assistant and a health-focused chatbot with a subset of users. AI has become a major area of investment across Amazon, including in its retail, cloud computing, devices and health-care businesses. Within the retail business, Amazon has already launched a shopping chatbot, an AI assistant for sellers and AI shopping guides. The new services Amazon is testing appeared on its app or website in recent weeks. The shopping tool, called Interests AI, prompts users to describe an interest “using your own words,” and then it generates a curated selection of products. The feature lets consumers browse for products using more conversational language and is separate from the main search bar on Amazon’s website.

Finance & Economy

Americans’ expectations for the economy hit their lowest level in 12 years

Americans continue to sour on the US economic outlook as uncertainty around President Trump’s policies and higher prices weigh on consumer sentiment. The latest consumer confidence index reading from the Conference Board was 92.9 in March, below the 100.1 in February and the lowest level in more than four years. The expectations index, which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, ticked down to 65.2 from 72.9 and remained below the threshold of 80, which typically signals recession ahead, for the second straight month. This marked a 12-year low for the expectations index, partly driven by consumers’ expectations of their financial situation hitting its lowest level in more than two years.

Trump announces 25% tariffs on all cars ‘not made in the United States’

On Mar 26th, President Donald Trump said he would impose 25% tariffs on “all cars that are not made in the United States.” Trump said there is “absolutely no tariff” for cars built in the U.S. The new tariffs were codified in a presidential proclamation that Trump signed in the Oval Office. They will go into effect April 2, and “we start collecting April 3,” he said. Trump White House aide Will Scharf said the new tariffs apply to “foreign-made cars and light trucks.” He clarified that they come in addition to duties already in place. Scharf said the tariffs will result in “over $100 billion of new annual revenue” to the U.S.

Home prices kept growing in January, but there are signs of a slowing market ahead

Home prices rose in January, but the pace of that growth slowed, reflecting a softening in the real estate market in the back half of 2024. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, a closely watched price benchmark, jumped 4.1% from a year earlier, just ahead of December’s 4% gain, according to new data released Mar 25th. Home prices in 20 metro areas rose 4.7% year over year, compared with a 4.5% annual increase in December. But much of the gains nationwide came in the first half of 2024. In the second half, home prices fell slightly, on average. Now, inventory levels are rising in much of the country, and home prices have fallen slightly from record highs.

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