The Weekly Consensus

The Weekly Consensus

Maeghan Thompson

Story of the Week

Estée Lauder arranging financing for potential €5 billion Puig takeover

Estée Lauder is reportedly arranging financing for a potential takeover bid of Spanish beauty group Puig. The US cosmetics company has engaged JP Morgan to structure a financing package of around €5 billion to support the deal, according to reports. Estée Lauder and Puig previously confirmed they were exploring a transaction that could combine their portfolios, bringing together brands such as Tom Ford, Carolina Herrera, Rabanne, Jean Paul Gaultier, and Clinique under one group. The potential deal would create one of the largest premium beauty players globally.

Apparel & Footwear

Lululemon names Nike vet Heidi O’Neill CEO

Lululemon has named 28-year Nike veteran Heidi O’Neill as its next CEO, effective Sept 8, the company announced. She will also join the board at that time. Meghan Frank and André Maestrini, who have been leading the company as co-CEOs, will continue to lead the company in the interim and then return to their previous roles as CFO and chief commercial officer, respectively. The appointment comes three months after former CEO Calvin McDonald stepped down amid softening sales in North America and heavy criticism from founder Chip Wilson.

Men’s Wearhouse owner aims to rejoin the stock market

Tailored Brands plans to rejoin the public stock market, five years or so after emerging from bankruptcy as a private company. The apparel conglomerate, which runs Men’s Wearhouse, Jos. A. Bank, Moores, and K&G Fashion Superstore, on April 21 said it “has confidentially submitted a draft registration statement on Form S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission.” The move is preliminary, as neither the number of shares nor their price has been determined, and the SEC has yet to review the proposal, the company said in a press release.

ASOS narrows H1 losses as earnings improve

British ecommerce retailer ASOS reported improved H1 earnings and narrower losses, even as sales, customer numbers, and GMV continued to decline. For the six months ended March 1, 2026, adjusted EBITDA rose 51% year-on-year to £64m ($86.1m). Gross merchandise value fell 9% to £1.17bn while revenue was down 14% to £1.11bn. The online fashion retailer said the decline reflected an opening customer database that was 14% smaller than a year earlier. Active customers dropped 9% to 16.5 million while pre-tax losses narrowed to £137.9m from £241.5m in the first half of FY25.

Athletic & Sporting Goods

Major US fitness provider acquires New Mexico Sports & Wellness

A handful of Albuquerque sports clubs are now under new ownership. Genesis Health Clubs, one of the nation’s largest privately held fitness companies, announced that it acquired New Mexico Sports & Wellness, which has five locations across Albuquerque.  The deal also included the acquisition of Colorado Athletic Club, which has four locations in Colorado. Denver-based fitness company Wellbridge had owned both Colorado Athletic Club and New Mexico Sports & Wellness. Genesis spokesperson Paul Hansen declined to share the acquisition cost.  The acquisition expands Genesis’ footprint in Colorado while marking a first-time entry into the New Mexico market.

Nike cuts 1,400 roles in second round of layoffs this year

Nike announced a new round of layoffs affecting approximately 1,400 employees across the organization, mostly concentrated in its technology department.  In a note from COO Venkatesh Alagirisamy, the company said the layoffs were part of Nike’s broader “Win Now” turnaround strategy aiming to reshape its technology team, modernize its Air manufacturing, move some of its Converse Footwear operations and integrate its materials supply chain work into its footwear and apparel supply chain teams.

BSN Sports-Parent Varsity Brands to Acquire Soccer.com and Lax.com

Varsity Brands, Inc., the parent of BSN Sports and Varsity Spirit, is in talks to acquire Sports Endeavors, the operator of Soccer.com, and lacrosse retailer Lax.com in separate deals, sources told Sportico.  The acquisitions mark the first major purchases for Varsity Brands since its sale to private equity giant KKR for $4.5 billion in 2024.  A sizeable acquisition in the soccer space by Varsity Spirit was expected. In mid-January, Varsity Brands announced a proposed $400 million fungible add-on to its first-lien term loan facility to partly finance a potential undisclosed acquisition of a complementary business to BSN Sports with a heavy presence in soccer. The debt extension and potential acquisition were noted in reports from both Moody’s Ratings and S&P Global Ratings.

Cosmetics & Pharmacy

L’Oréal reports strong Q1 growth, outperforming the global beauty market

L’Oréal has reported a strong first quarter, delivering growth ahead of the global beauty market. The group posted sales of €12.15 billion, up 3.6% reported and 7.6% like-for-like, with adjusted growth of 6.7%. Growth was driven across all divisions and regions, with Professional Products and Dermatological Beauty posting double-digit gains. Fragrance and haircare were key contributors, while skincare showed early signs of recovery. Europe was the largest growth driver, and emerging markets delivered double-digit increases. E-commerce continued to expand strongly, and the company completed the acquisition of Kering Beauté during the quarter.

Boots owners explore strategy overhaul ahead of potential 2027 IPO

Boots’ owners are working with consultants on a strategic overhaul as they consider a potential London IPO. Private equity owner Sycamore Partners and Boots have engaged advisers to explore growth opportunities, particularly in beauty and wellness, as part of early-stage discussions around a possible stock market listing by 2027. No final decision has been made, and a sale remains an alternative option. Boots, which operates more than 1,800 UK stores and was taken private in a US$10 billion deal, is being repositioned as a standalone business following its separation from Walgreens Boots Alliance.

Pat McGrath Labs Exits Chapter 11 Bankruptcy with New Owner

Pat McGrath Labs has emerged from Chapter 11 with a new Miami-based owner, and founder Pat McGrath has stepped down as CEO to become Chief Creative Officer. On April 17, a Florida judge approved Pat McGrath Labs’s exit from Chapter 11, with Miami-based GDA Luma taking control through a new holding company, Business of Fashion reported. Founder Pat McGrath will transfer her equity to GDA Luma. “Creating beauty that moves people has been my life’s work, and that never stops,” McGrath said in a statement. “I will continue pushing boundaries in my role as Chief Creative Officer alongside GDA Luma, and I look forward to the future.”

Sephora to introduce safeguards on marketing anti-aging skincare to children

Sephora will implement new safeguards on the marketing of anti-aging skincare products to children following a regulatory investigation. The move comes after an investigation led by Connecticut Attorney General William Tong, which raised concerns about how anti-aging products are promoted to younger consumers. As part of the outcome, Sephora has agreed to adopt measures to ensure its marketing practices are more age-appropriate and responsible when targeting or reaching children. The action aims to address growing concerns around the exposure of minors to anti-aging messaging, promoting safer and more ethical marketing standards within the beauty industry.

Discounters & Department Stores

Tariff refunds began on April 20th. These retailers are due big paydays

U.S. importers, ranging from Target to Walmart, are due more than $160 billion in tariff refunds following a February Supreme Court decision, as the Trump administration launched its claims filing portal on April 20th. Hopes are high for a smooth launch of the system that will facilitate the refunds, but companies and Wall Street analysts are tempering their expectations that companies will get the money back quickly. Trade lawyers are warning of bureaucratic hurdles, legal vulnerabilities, and the possibility of a last-minute appeal by the Trump administration. ″[Importers] are pessimistic that the government is going to make this easy. They’re anticipating that the government is going to make it as difficult as possible to get their money back,” said trade attorney Matthew Seligman, principal at Grayhawk Law.

Primark to be spun off into a stand-alone company

In a highly anticipated move, Associated British Foods is splitting its retail and food businesses. The demerger of Primark and FoodCo is the result of an in-depth review of the company’s structure announced last fall. The demerger is expected to become effective before the end of 2027 and is subject to approvals and tax clearances, according to an April 21 press release. ABF shareholders will have equity in both companies. Both Primark and FoodCo will be listed on the London Stock Exchange, and FoodCo will retain the Associated British Foods name. The split was expected. “Let’s face it: Primark has little in common with ABF’s food empire of grocery and bakery brands,” James Watson, U.K. Partner at Argon & Co., wrote in a note at the start of the year.

Emerging Consumer Companies

Monday Swimwear to open New York flagship

Monday Swimwear has opened its second retail location and first New York flagship in SoHo at 464 Broome Street. Founded by Australian Natasha Oakley and Oakland, Calif.-native Devin Brugman, the buzzy label’s touchdown in the Big Apple marks a significant milestone for the swim, active, accessory, and resort wear brand. It’s also a full-circle moment for the cofounder and models who named the brand Monday Swimwear in a New York taxi in 2013, “based on the idea that if you are wearing a bikini on a Monday, you are having a good day. To now be opening a store here all these years later feels incredibly special,” they said.

Vuori taps Rothy’s exec for first product chief

Vuori has named industry veteran Heather Archibald to the new position of chief product officer, effective Monday, according to a company press release. As product chief, Archibald is tasked with leading initiatives across design and development, merchandising, raw material planning, production, and sourcing strategy. She will report directly to founder and CEO Joe Kudla. Archibald most recently served as chief product and merchandising officer for Rothy’s. Prior roles have included chief product officer at Title Nine, as well as product and merchandising roles at both RH and Gap Inc.

L’Oréal’s BOLD fund invests in body care brand Hanni

L’Oréal’s BOLD venture fund has invested in U.S.-based body care brand Hanni. Founded in 2021 by Leslie Tessler, Hanni focuses on simplified, eco-conscious body care with a premium, experiential approach. The brand gained early traction as Sephora U.S.’s first razor partner and has built a portfolio including products such as the Splash Salve in-shower moisturizer and The Fatty moisture stick. BOLD highlighted Hanni’s modern take on body care, emphasizing clean, vegan, and clinically tested formulations designed for efficiency and sensory appeal.

Westman Atelier Secures $15M From Prelude Growth Partners and Imaginary Ventures

Westman Atelier, the makeup brand launched by celebrity makeup artist Gucci Westman in 2018, has raised $15 million in funding from existing backers Imaginary Ventures and Prelude Growth Partners. The funding was disclosed in February filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Westman Atelier previously raised nearly $37 million, with Prelude participating in each prior round dating back to the brand’s 2019 seed financing and Imaginary joining a follow-on round. The new funding from Prelude and Imaginary could give Westman Atelier the runway to pursue growth and wait for a more favorable environment for a strategic exit in the makeup category.

Food & Beverage

PepsiCo makes strides in re-energizing food business

PepsiCo Foods North America (PFNA) saw its top-line performance in the fiscal 2026 first quarter improve as innovation and affordability initiatives began to take hold, PepsiCo Inc. executives said. Net revenue for PFNA, which includes Frito-Lay and Quaker Foods, grew 2% year over year to $6.33 billion in the quarter ended March 21, topping the 1.5% gain in the fiscal 2025 fourth quarter. “PepsiCo is off to a good start this year, and we’re pleased with our first‐quarter results,” Steve Schmitt, chief financial officer for PepsiCo, said in remarks on the quarterly performance. “A key strategic objective entering this year was to improve PepsiCo Foods North America volume performance, and the business delivered 2% volume growth in the quarter.”

Laird Superfood Announces Acquisition of Terrasoul Superfoods

On April 21st, Laird Superfood announced that it had completed the acquisition of Terrasoul Superfoods, a vertically integrated superfoods brand, for $48.0 million in cash. The transaction is subject to customary purchase price adjustments, with an additional earnout of up to $5.0 million payable in cash if certain performance-based milestones are achieved. For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, Terrasoul generated unaudited Net Sales of approximately $65.8 million. The acquisition was funded through a concurrent private placement of $60 million of Series A Convertible Preferred Stock to affiliates of Nexus Capital Management LP.

ARVOS acquires Père Olive

Arvos (formerly AG Olives Group), the global leader in table olives, completed the acquisition of Père Olive, a recognized specialist in chilled Mediterranean table olives, antipasti, and dips from the French group Labeyrie Fine Foods. Arvos brings together Aceitunas Guadalquivir in Spain, Bell-Carter Foods in California, and Parthenon in Greece. The transaction adds chilled Mediterranean capabilities to Arvos’ table olive operations, strengthening its support for retailers across Belgium, France, and other European markets. Founded in 1993 by Eric Maes, Père Olive is a Belgian Company that has built a leading position in chilled Mediterranean products.

Anheuser-Busch doubles US manufacturing investment to $600M

Anheuser-Busch is doubling its domestic manufacturing investment to $600 million as the beer giant positions itself for future growth, the brewer said. The investment marks a $300 million increase in its Brewing Futures initiative, which was launched last year and led to manufacturing improvements at breweries including Los Angeles, St. Louis, and Baldwinsville, New York. The money was deployed in 2025 and will now be expanded for 2026. The Bud Light maker estimates that 99% of its beer sold in the U.S. was manufactured in the country, where it has nine flagship facilities. The Brewing Futures plan calls for investing in workforce training, advancing technology, and growing its major brands, including Michelob Ultra.

Grocery & Restaurants

Sandwich chain Jersey Mike’s confidentially files for IPO

Jersey Mike’s has confidentially filed for an initial public offering, the company said. The announcement comes more than a year after Blackstone bought a majority stake in the sandwich chain in a deal that reportedly valued Jersey Mike’s at roughly $8 billion. After the Blackstone deal closed, Jersey Mike’s tapped former Wingstop CEO Charlie Morrison to helm the company. Morrison led the chicken wing chain for a decade, ushering it through its own IPO and a period of historic growth. With more than 3,000 locations nationwide, Jersey Mike’s is the second-largest hoagie sandwich chain in the U.S., trailing only Subway. Jersey Mike’s reported revenue of $309.8 million in 2025, up 10.6% from the prior year, according to franchise disclosure documents. The chain also reported net income of $183.6 million in 2025, down from the prior year’s net income of $238.8 million. Founder Peter Cancro began working at a Jersey Shore sandwich shop at age 14 in 1971; four years later, he pulled together enough money to buy Mike’s Subs. Cancro later changed the name and began franchising the chain. Until the sale to Blackstone, he was the outright owner of Jersey Mike’s.

Starbucks’ loyalty changes are drawing value-conscious customers

Starbucks is seeing early signs that changes to its loyalty program are paying off as value-minded consumers take advantage of its rewards, CNBC has learned. Last month, the coffee chain brought back tiers to its North American Rewards program, added “free Mod Mondays” for drink customization, offered double points for using a reusable cup and extended the amount of time for members to redeem their birthday award. The revamp also cut the number of stars — or points — earned per dollar spent when paying with a preloaded Starbucks gift card. Starbucks relies on Rewards to get customers to visit frequently and spend more money on their drink orders. In fiscal 2025, the transactions linked to the loyalty program accounted for 60% of the company’s revenue. Those loyal customers are all-important to the chain’s turnaround; while its troubles began when occasional customers stopped visiting, its traffic suffered as it lost active Rewards members, too. Now, as members adjust to the Rewards revamp, Starbucks is observing early signals that customers are leaning in to benefit from the loyalty program’s new deals.

Home & Road

Flexsteel generates modest Q3 growth in an unsteady environment

The order cadence was choppy, but residential furniture manufacturer Flexsteel Inds. managed to make gains on the top and bottom lines during the third quarter. For the quarter ended March 31, net sales bumped up 1% to $115.1 million compared with $114 million in the prior-year quarter. Growth was driven by new product introductions, strategic account relationships, and Flexsteel‘s health-and-wellness category. Even though demand softened over the period, the company maintained an operating margin of approximately 7%. GAAP operating income came in at $8.2 million or 7.1% of net sales compared with an operating loss of $5.1 million or 4.4% in last year’s Q3. Adjusted operating income was $8.2 million or 7.1% of net sales for the third quarter compared with $8.3 million or 7.3% of net sales in the year-ago quarter.

Furniture narrows sales gap in March, says DOC

By the Department of Commerce‘s reckoning, March marked the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year sales declines for furniture and home furnishings sales. However, the slip wasn’t as severe as in previous months. For the month, the DOC’s advance monthly estimates credited the furniture and home furnishings stores category with $11.3 billion in adjusted estimated sales. That number was 0.8% off March 2025’s adjusted revised $11.39 billion, but up 2.2% on February’s adjusted preliminary $11.06 billion. Through the first quarter of the year, the DOC has brick-and-mortar furniture and home furnishings sales at an unadjusted $31.5 billion, down 2.8% year-over-year.

Jewelry & Luxury

House of Brands reshuffles management at Breitling, Universal Genève, and Gallet

Watchmaking group House of Brands announced the appointment of new management across its Breitling, Universal Genève, and Gallet brands. The luxury timepiece company said Jean-Marc Pontroué has been appointed CEO of Breitling. With an extensive career in luxury watchmaking at Montblanc and as CEO of Roger Dubuis since 2011 and of Panerai since 2018, Pontroué “brings long-standing experience in retail, wholesale and marketing,” according to a press release. Grégory Bruttin has been appointed managing director of Universal Genève, and “continues to build on the momentum created by the recent successful brand relaunch,” the firm continued. Likewise, Erwan Rossigno has been appointed managing director of Gallet and is “preparing with his team [for] the [brand’s] relaunch… by the end of August.”

Moncler’s Q1 Currency-Neutral Sales Expand 12 Percent

Moncler reported first-quarter revenues reached €880.6 million ($1.02 bn), up 12 percent on a currency-neutral (c-n) basis and 6 percent on a reported basis. For the flagship Moncler brand, sales reached €766.5 million, climbing 12 percent c-n and 6 percent on a reported basis. Moncler Brand’s revenues in Asia, which includes APAC, Japan, and Korea, were €433.0 million, up 22 percent c-n compared with Q1 2025. All countries grew in the quarter and improved sequentially, supported by a “positive contribution from both local customers and tourists, with China and Korea outperforming.”

Timothée Chalamet Invests in Historic Danish Watchmaker Urban Jürgensen

Urban Jürgensen, the Danish watchmaking house founded in 1773, has announced that actor Timothée Chalamet is acquiring a minority stake in the company. Chalamet will also serve as a creative adviser on select projects and initiatives for Urban Jürgensen. This investment represents the actor’s first equity partnership with any brand. Founded in Copenhagen, Urban Jürgensen is known for combining Danish design principles with Swiss engineering. The company—which has historically served as watchmaker to the Danish royal court and clockmaker to the Danish navy—was relaunched last year under the stewardship of the Rosenfield family, who led a group that purchased Urban Jürgensen in 2021.

Office & Leisure

Stonepeak acquires Southern Marinas in recapitalization deal

US-based marina operator Southern Marinas has completed a recapitalization through a sale by affiliates of KSL Capital Partners, LLC to Stonepeak, an investment firm focused on infrastructure and real assets.  Founded in 2018, Southern Marinas owns and operates 16 marinas across eight US states: Florida, Idaho, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Tennessee and Washington. Its core storage business includes more than 6,700 slips, along with fuel provision, boat rentals and service operations. It has also acquired F3 Marina, a 59,000 sq ft facility in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

Group Completes Acquisition of Philadelphia Sports Complexes

Indiana-based Capacity Sports Group has acquired two owned campuses in the greater Philadelphia region, totaling more than 300,000 square feet of indoor space and approximately 80 acres of outdoor fields.  United Sports in Downingtown, Pennsylvania, was founded in 1998 and is one of the largest indoor and outdoor multi-sport complexes in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, featuring 218,000 square feet of indoor space, 11 outdoor fields, and a 91,000-square-foot indoor turf facility. YSC Sports, located in Wayne and founded in 2008, is a 90,000-square-foot sports complex and player development hub serving more than 1,500 teams and 7,500 individual registrations annually.

Technology & Internet

Apple taps John Ternus as CEO to replace Tim Cook, becoming chairman

Apple announced that John Ternus is succeeding Tim Cook as CEO, with Cook assuming the role of executive chairman on Sept. 1. “Cook will continue in his role as CEO through the summer as he works closely with Ternus on a smooth transition,” Apple said in a press release. It’s the first CEO transition for Apple since Cook, now 65, succeeded Steve Jobs at the helm in 2011, shortly before Jobs’ death. Ternus will become Apple’s eighth CEO. Apple also said that Johny Srouji will become chief hardware officer, taking over for Ternus in an expanded role. Srouji, who most recently served as the company’s senior vice president of hardware technologies, will also lead hardware engineering. As Cook exits, Apple faces numerous challenges, including an increasingly complex supply chain, geopolitical tensions, the Trump administration’s tariffs and a memory crunch tied to soaring demand for AI chips.

Best Buy names Jason Bonfig as new CEO, replacing Corie Barry

Best Buy said Wednesday that company veteran Jason Bonfig will succeed Corie Barry as the retailer’s CEO on Oct. 31, taking over as Best Buy tries to break a run of stagnant sales. Bonfig, 49, is chief customer, product and fulfillment officer and rose through the ranks after joining the retailer as an inventory analyst in 1999. He will become Best Buy’s sixth chief executive officer and join the company’s board. Barry will stay on as a strategic advisor for six months after stepping down, the company said in a news release. The leadership change comes as Best Buy tries to get back to meaningful sales growth and capitalize on a wave of artificial intelligence-enabled mobile phones and laptops. The company’s sales have lagged in the past four years, which Best Buy has attributed to a slower housing market, price-conscious U.S. consumers and less tech innovation.

Finance & Economy

Gas prices drive up March retail sales

US retail sales rose 1.7% month-over-month to $752.1 billion and 4% YoY in March, the Commerce Department reported last week. The Commerce Department also revised February’s monthly sales increase from 0.6% to 0.7%. High prices at the pump were largely to blame for the jump, as gas sales rocketed 15.5% from the previous month and 18.1% YoY. Gas prices soared 21.2% month over month in February, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier this month. Excluding gas and motor vehicle sales, retail sales increased 0.6% month-over-month and 4.2% YoY. Nonstore retailers, made up largely of e-commerce sales, saw a 1% month-over-month and a 10.1% YoY increase in March. E-commerce marketing company Omnisend reported earlier this month that higher gas prices, which it found to be the highest-cost concern among consumers, could be encouraging consumers to shop more online.

Chair nominee Kevin Warsh says Fed must ‘stay in its lane’ to maintain independence

On April 20th, Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh said the central bank must be largely independent of political influence but also should stay focused on its primary goals. In remarks to be delivered to the Senate Banking Committee, Warsh also expressed a firm commitment to fighting inflation with only one mention of the labor market. “Simply stated, Fed independence is largely up to the Fed,” the former central bank governor said. Warsh’s speech also features a familiar criticism he has advanced in recent years, namely that the Fed has, on multiple occasions, overstepped its bounds and reached into areas such as climate change and social inequality. “The Fed must stay in its lane. Fed independence is placed at greatest risk when it strays into fiscal and social policies where it has neither authority nor expertise,” he added.

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