The Weekly Consensus

The Weekly Consensus

Maeghan Thompson

Stocks close higher, clawing back much of the week’s losses in major recovery from Monday’s sell-off

Stocks ticked up Friday, August 9th as the stock market built on its incredible comeback from Monday’s violent rout. The broad market index ended the week just shy of completely reversing its weekly losses. The S&P 500 advanced 0.47% to finish at 5,344.16. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.51% to close at 16,745.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 51 points, or 0.13%, to end at 39,497.54. Week to date, the broad market index was just 0.04% lower. During Friday’s session, it had managed to briefly turn positive for the week before losing some of its gains. Meanwhile, the blue-chip Dow and tech-heavy Nasdaq were down on the week by 0.6% and 0.18%, respectively.

Apparel & Footwear

Ralph Lauren net income up 28%

Ralph Lauren Corporation’s first-quarter 2025 revenue was up 1% to $1.5 billion, per an August 7th release. The company’s net income rose 27.6% for the period to $169 million, up from $132 million year over year. Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData, attributed the improvement to general cost savings, a decrease in cotton costs and better margins due to the company’s shift to retail. Global DTC sales increased 5%, and the company also raised its DTC average unit retail by 6% for the period. The increase comes after a 15% AUR increase last year, which the company said reflects the durability of its “multi-pronged elevation approach.”

Store closures a factor in Allbirds Q2 sales nosedive

Allbirds began the year ushering in new management, along with a plan to shrink its store footprint by as much as one quarter, or 10 to 15 stores, by the end of the year. With another store closed after Q2 ended, the brand is up to 14 so far, per its release. “We have closed 14 underperforming U.S. locations to bias toward a smaller physical footprint that better serves our footwear product strategy and advances our goal to build a profitable retail fleet,” CEO Joe Vernachio told analysts on a recent earnings call.

 

VF revenue remains down despite ‘modest improvement’ at Vans

VF Corp. reported revenue of $1.9 billion for Q1 of its 2025 fiscal year, marking a 9% year-over-year decline, according to a recent earnings report. The Vans brand, which has consistently been a drag on VF’s earnings, fell 21%, which the company called a “modest improvement” compared to last quarter, when the brand’s revenue declined 26%. The results come on the heels of VF’s announcement that it was selling Supreme to EssilorLuxottica for $1.5 billion. VF said in its earnings statement that it expects to report Supreme as discontinued operations in its next earnings report.

 

 

Athletic & Sporting Goods

Grivel secures investment and operational support from Midi Management

Grivel, the renowned Italian mountaineering equipment brand with a 200-year legacy, proudly announces that it has entered a strategic partnership with Midi Management, an operating and investment firm specializing in category-defining consumer products. The partnership is designed to accelerate growth through selective international expansion, product development and innovation. Grivel will continue to serve the mountaineering and climbing market with a focus on improving the practitioner’s experience while preserving the brand’s over 200 years of heritage.  Grivel, founded in 1818 at the foot of Mont Blanc, is a world leader in manufacturing technical mountain and climbing equipment.

Under Armour to acquire Portland plastic-free apparel startup Unless Collective

Under Armour, Inc. announced that Eric Liedtke will join the company as Executive Vice President of Brand Strategy following the completion of its acquisition of UNLESS COLLECTIVE, INC, a zero-plastic regenerative fashion brand. The transaction is expected to be completed later this week.  UNLESS COLLECTIVE, INC (UNLESS) is the world’s first all-plant, zero-plastic regenerative fashion brand. Inspired by the Pacific Northwest and influenced by the utility and style of skate, outdoor, and cold-water surf, UNLESS creates clothing and apparel built from the elements that can be worn in the elements and safely returned to the elements.

Cosmetics & Pharmacy

L’Oréal Acquires 10% Stake in Galderma

L’Oréal purchased 10% stake in Swiss skincare company Galderma. According to Reuters, L’Oréal is acquiring the stake from Sunshine SwissCo AG- a consortium led by Swedish private equity firm EQT – Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Auba Investment Pte. Ltd in a deal that will be completed in the coming days. Galderma originally started as a joint venture between L’Oréal and Nestle before L’Oréal sold its 50% in 2014. L’Oréal CEO Nicolas Hieronimus said, “I am very pleased to announce this strategic investment and partnership with Galderma. It marks an ambitious step for L’Oréal, and true to our mantra of ‘seize what is starting,’ it allows us to explore partnering in the fast-growing aesthetics market…”

Lorena Investments buys Harley Medical Group and SKN Group

Lorena Investments has announced the acquisition of the Harley Medical Group and SKN Group companies after they ceased trading last month. Lorena will take over the branches and is looking to recruit former employees. The liquidation in July led to the immediate closure of all 70 UK branches and 450 staff were laid off. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. David Moulsdale, the Founder, Chairman & CEO of Lorena Investments, comments, “I am delighted that we have completed this acquisition, which will save dedicated staff their jobs and, more importantly, reassure patients who have been deprived of the services they paid for.

Shinsegae acquires K-beauty brand Amuse for US$51.6 million

Shinsegae International has announced the acquisition of a 100 percent stake in Amuse for $51.6 million from majority owner Naver and other shareholders. The K-beauty brand, which is famed for its Jang Wonyoung tint, has a strong fan base among the global MZ generation. Shinsegae International plans to operate the business through an independent management structure, whilst actively deploying investments, with the aim of achieving a revenue target of $150 million by 2028.

 

Discounters & Department Stores

Simon malls notch Q2 gains in occupancy, traffic and retail sales

Simon Property Group reported increases in leasing volumes, occupancy, shopper traffic and retail sales volumes, resulting in the highest level of Q2 real estate net operating income in its history. The mall REIT in the period signed more than 1,400 leases, and 30% of its leasing activity was new deal volume, CFO Brian McDade told analysts. Traffic rose 5%, and total sales volumes rose about 2%. Net operating income at its properties in North America rose 5.2% year over year to $1.3 billion, according to a Q2 earnings supplement. “Continued leasing momentum, resilient consumer spending, and operational excellence delivered results exceeding our plan for the quarter,” McDade said.

The Container Store sales fall 12% in Q1

The Container Store said Tuesday that first quarter net sales fell 12.2% year over year to $181.9 million. Net sales for the company’s retail business fell 12.1% to $171.5 million, while net loss widened to $14.7 million from $11.8 million in the year-ago quarter. Online sales also fell 25.6% year over year. Sales at the company’s third-party custom storage business declined nearly 14% from a year ago to $10.3 million. Store comps also fell nearly 14% year over year. The Container Store’s long-term debt rose nearly 17% year over year to $214.5 million from $185.3 million. CEO Satish Malhotra said the company is looking to refinance its credit facility and reiterated that it’s reviewing strategic alternatives.

Walmart adds dorm shop to virtual shopping platform

In time for back-to-school season, Walmart on July 30 launched Walmart Realm, an immersive shopping experience that centers on dorm room curation, according to details sent to Retail Dive. In collaboration with virtual reality tech developer Emperia, the Your Dorm Your Way shopping experience features five immersive dorm rooms from which college students can shop. Each virtual dorm is equipped with a mini game, social content from Walmart’s creators and other surprises, according to the company.

 

 

Emerging Consumer Companies

Bandana, online job platform for hourly jobs, raises $8.5 million

Bandana, a New York City-based online job platform, wants to help people at the lower end of the wage scale find better jobs with higher wages and good benefits, all while being closer to home to reduce commuting time. The company announced an $8.5 million investment, bringing the total raised to $12.3 million. The new investment was led by General Catalyst with participation from returning investors Craft Ventures and Triple Impact Capital.

AmorSui raises $3.5 million for sustainable PPE

AmorSui, a modern personal protective equipment (PPE) brand dedicated to protecting people and the planet, raised $3.5 million in seed funding. AmorSui’s mission is to make PPE more sustainable, inclusive, and affordable over time. Investors include Gold House Ventures, The MBA Fund, and The Rev Up Fund. While the company began with the goal of improving workplace safety through sustainable PPE, it has grown to tackle the large carbon footprint associated with medical supplies. AmorSui achieves this by creating products that can be reused and are 100% recyclable at the end of their life.

Chaiz, a comparison marketplace for extended car warranties, raised $3.7 million in seed funding

Chaiz, a comparison marketplace for extended car warranties that allows users to get quotes in minutes without submitting a phone number or email address, raised $3.7 million in seed funding. The round was led by ResilienceVC. Anker Capital, Automotive Ventures, Everywhere Ventures, FJ Labs, Monte Carlo Capital, Never Lift Ventures, RedBlue Capital, and Springtime Ventures also participated. Previous investors included Everywhere VC, InsurTech NY, The Calm Fund, and Project One Auto, a nationwide auto dealership. The company intends to use the funds to continue innovating in the breakdown protection space and expand product coverage for other critical items for customers like RV, motorsports, and home appliances.

 

 

Food & Beverage

AB InBev sells Atom Group back to founder

Anheuser-Busch InBev‘s incubator arm ZX Ventures has handed back UK-based e-commerce drinks business Atom Group to its founder, Justin Petszaft. Financial details of the deal were not revealed. The Leffe brewer used ZX Ventures to acquire the drinks retailing group in 2018 for an undisclosed sum. As part of the transaction at the time, ZX snapped up Atom’s three business divisions: global e-commerce retailer Master of Malt, the creator of UK-based brands such as Bathtub Gin, Atom Brands, and Atom’s distribution leg Maverick Drinks.

Hershey income falters under new consumer trends

The Hershey Company saw second-quarter 2024 net income slide 55.1% to $180.9 million, or 89¢ in earnings per share on the common stock. That compares with $407 million, or $1.98 per share, from the year-ago period. Consolidated net sales fell 16.7% to $2.07 billion in the second quarter, the company said, and organic, constant currency net sales dropped 16.8% due to retailer inventory reductions in North America Confectionery and International related to software implementation and seasonal shipment timing.

Newlat Food completes acquisition of Princes Limited, forms New Princes Group

Princes Limited has announced the successful completion of its acquisition by Italy-based Newlat Food. The acquisition, valued at £700 million, encompasses all current operations and brands of Princes, which will function as a subsidiary under the newly formed New Princes Group. In May, Newlat revealed its plans to acquire Princes from Mitsubishi Corporation, following a brief pause in negotiations in February. The renaming of Newlat to New Princes Group is expected to be finalized by the end of the year, pending the completion of necessary processes.

Tyson profits soar after ‘remarkable turnaround’ in chicken

Tyson Foods, Inc., reported one of its strongest earnings quarters to date on August 5th, with the company’s CEO noting a “remarkable turnaround” in chicken and pork following a period of difficult market conditions that led to layoffs and plant closures. Chicken profits in the third quarter reached the highest they’ve been in the past eight years. Overall earnings were the strongest of the last seven quarters, CEO Donnie King said in a call with analysts. Adjusted operating income totaled $491 million for the three months that ended June 29, up 174% versus last year.

Benford Capital Partners acquires Turri’s Italian Foods

US-based private-equity firm Benford Capital Partners (BCP) has acquired local frozen pasta and rice maker Turri’s Italian Foods. Financial details were not disclosed. BCP revealed that third- and fourth-generation members of the Turri family will continue to lead the Michigan-based company post-closing. Founded in 1949, Turri’s provides its “individually quick frozen” (IQF) pasta and rice to food manufacturing companies, large CPGs, restaurant chains, national retailers, and distributors.

 

 

Grocery & Restaurants

Yum Brands reports mixed results as Pizza Hut and KFC same-store sales fall

Yum Brands on Tuesday reported a mixed quarter as both Pizza Hut and KFC reported declining same-store sales. “The impacts from the Middle East conflict, in addition to a more cost-conscious consumer, have presented headwinds to same-store sales,” Yum CEO David Gibbs told analysts on the company’s conference call. He added that sales trends have improved in the U.S. compared with the prior quarter, thanks to value meals such as Pizza Hut’s $7 Deal Lovers. Net sales rose 4% to $1.76 billion, fueled by new restaurant openings. Yum’s same-store sales fell 1% in the quarter as both Pizza Hut and KFC reported same-store sales declines of 3%. KFC’s U.S. restaurants continued to struggle, with domestic same-store sales shrinking 5%. And although the chicken chain’s system sales picked up this quarter in China, its largest market, KFC’s overall international same-store sales fell 3%. Pizza Hut’s U.S. same-store sales decreased 1%, while its international same-store sales declined 4%. Taco Bell, the crown jewel of Yum’s portfolio, saw its same-store sales increase 5% in the quarter.

Consumer pullback continued at Applebee’s and IHOP in Q2

Dine Brands reported its second quarter 2024 results Wednesday morning, and while there were slight improvements over the first quarter, the story remained mostly the same: Consumers are reining in their restaurant visits and spending. “We began the second quarter with a strong strategy to address economic challenges, build our appeal to guests, and build on the positive momentum we experienced toward the end of Q1,” CEO John Peyton said during the earnings call. That momentum, however, slowed to a crawl through the second quarter “to the extent that the trend reversed,” Peyton said during an interview Wednesday morning. “The first four months [of the year] were encouraging, but there was a change and softness in the last three months that was somewhat unexpected for us.” Applebee’s reported a Q2 same-store sales decline of 1.8%, versus negative 4.6% in Q1, while IHOP’s same-store sales decreased 1.4%, compared to negative 1.7% in Q1. Because of this pressured environment, Dine reduced its full-year outlook and is now targeting a same-store sales decline of 2%-to-4% for Applebee’s, from 0%-to-2% previously, and a same-store sales result of 0-to-negative 2% for IHOP, from a 1%-to-3% previously.

Home & Road

Arhaus focuses on growth metrics as sales slip slightly in Q2

While it narrowly missed its year-over-year net revenue mark in the second quarter of FY2024, its CEO said Top 100 retailer Arhaus was on target growth-wise, and it hit a significant milestone in the process. For the three months ended June 30, the Boston Heights, Ohio-based retailer’s net revenue was $309.8 million, off about a point vs. $312.9 million in the second quarter of 2023. Arhaus officials noted that the decrease was the result of the non-recurrence of prior year abnormal backlog deliveries and the implementation of a warehouse management system in its Ohio distribution center. Net and comprehensive income was $22.23 million, or 16 cents per diluted share, down 44.67% compared with $40.18 million, or 29 cents per diluted share, in the second quarter of 2023.

Big Lots amends credit agreements; can close up to 315 stores

In an Aug. 2 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Top 100 retailer Big Lots revealed that it has amended its credit agreement and plans to close up to 315 stores. On July 31, Big Lots and certain of its direct and indirect wholly owned subsidiaries entered into the second amendment (referred to as the ABL Amendment) to its $900 million, five-year asset-based revolving credit facility (referred to as the 2022 Credit Agreement) and Amendment No. 1 (referred to as the Term Loan Amendment) to its $200 million “first-in, last-out” delayed draw term loan facility. The ABL Amendment amends the 2022 Credit Agreement to, among other things, increase the number of permitted store closings from 150 to 315, reduce the aggregate commitments under the 2022 Credit Agreement from $900 million to $800 million, increase the interest rate applicable to borrowings under the 2022 Credit Agreement by 50 bps and require the company to deliver certain additional reports to the lenders.

Jewelry & Luxury

De Beers Calls Off August Sight as Market Woes Continue

In yet another sign of the diamond market’s troubles, De Beers has called off the sight it scheduled for August and is combining it with the one that had been planned for October. The new merged sight will take place Sept. 23-27. That means De Beers will have nine allocations this year instead of its traditional 10, though a De Beers spokesperson says, “Neither sight has been canceled—they have been combined.” De Beers is also moving up the dates of its last two sights of the year. The sight originally scheduled for Nov. 11–15 will be held Nov. 4–8, and the final 2024 sight has been rescheduled from Dec. 9–13 to Dec. 2–6.

Gold Futures Cross $2,500 Mark for First Time Ever

The price of gold futures passed the psychologically important $2,500 mark for the first time on Friday, setting yet another record for the yellow metal. The price of gold futures briefly hit $2,522 an ounce on Friday, before retreating. At press time on Monday, the spot price of gold was $2,405 per ounce. The newest record came as analysts at Morgan Stanley forecast that the gold price could reach $2,600 by the end of the year, reported Bloomberg. Morgan Stanley said the surge has been caused mostly by increased buying by central banks, particularly China’s.

 

Office & Leisure

Penn CEO Quashes Takeover Speculation on Earnings Call

Penn Entertainment delivered second-quarter results on August 8th and recent speculation that the regional casino operator is a takeover target was briefly addressed on the company’s conference call with analysts. Regarding consolidation rumors of which their firms at the center, the typical response by executives at companies in any industry is that they don’t comment on speculation. In response to a question from JPMorgan analyst Joseph Greff, that was the approach taken by Penn CEO Jay Snowden, but he added rumors aren’t always accurate. “What I will say is that as a company and as a board, we’re always and always have, always will evaluate opportunities to enhance value and we’ll continue to take actions that we believe are in the best interest of the Company and our shareholders,” Snowden said. “And, I would say, don’t believe everything you read.”

Unity revenue drops 16% to $449m during Q2

Unity has released its financial results for the three months ended June 30, 2024, showing a decrease in revenue which “exceeded previous guidance” of between $420 million and $425 million for Q2. It also announced the departure of CFO Luis Visoso, who joined the firm in 2021, and the appointment of current chief accounting officer Mark Barrysmith as interim CFO, followed by another two executive hires. “Create Solutions” was the biggest revenue category for Unity’s business this quarter, which came primarily from game subscriptions (which grew 14%) and industries – the latter making up 18% of Create Solutions total revenue.

Technology & Internet

Shopify shares soar 17% after earnings top expectations

Shares of Shopify closed up 17.8% on Wednesday after the Canadian e-commerce company topped expectations for the second quarter, citing strong demand despite “a mixed consumer spend environment.” The company said gross merchandise volume, or the total volume of merchandise sold on the platform, jumped 22% during the quarter to $67.2 billion. That easily topped consensus estimates of $65.8 billion, according to FactSet. Shopify sells software for merchants who run online businesses as well as services such as advertising and payment processing tools. Jeff Hoffmeister, Shopify’s CFO, said in a statement the company continued to “take share” during the quarter even as consumer spending remains in flux amid a rocky economic backdrop.

Beyonce, Playstation games help Sony post a 10% jump in profits

Sony on Wednesday reported a 10% jump in operating profit in the fiscal first quarter, beating analyst expectations after seeing strong growth in its gaming, music and imaging chip businesses. The Japanese technology giant’s music division, in particular, got a boost during the quarter as the release of R&B star Beyonce’s new “Cowboy Carter” album boosted its performance. In an earnings release Wednesday, Sony said that its first-quarter sales benefited from “significant increases” in game and network services, music, and imaging and sensing solutions. Gaming, for which Sony is well-known thanks to its popular PlayStation consoles, banked revenues of 864.9 billion yen in the quarter, up 12% from 771.9 billion yen a year ago. For full-year 2024, Sony revised its forecast upward saying it now expects to hit 12.6 billion yen of sales. That’s up 2% from what the company was previously guiding. Sony also upped its operating profit forecast by 3%, noting it expects to reach 1.3 trillion yen in consolidated operating profit for the full year.

 

Finance & Economy

S&P 500 suffers worst loss since 2022

Stocks plummeted on August 5th as markets worldwide reckoned with a disappointing jobs report last week that fueled concern of a possible recession. When markets opened on Monday morning, the S&P 500 fell about 4% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped more than 6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell roughly 1,000 points, or nearly 3%. By the end of the trading day, markets had recovered some of the losses but each of the major stock indexes remained down more than 2%. The S&P 500 fell 3%, suffering its largest loss in a single trading session since 2022.