The Weekly Consensus

The Weekly Consensus

Maeghan Thompson

Story of the Week

Trump threatens an extra 100% tariff on China imports, adds export controls on ‘critical software’

President Donald Trump said the United States would impose a new tariff of 100% on imports from China “over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying,” starting on Nov. 1. Trump also said that the U.S. on that same date would impose export controls on “any and all critical software.” The move is in retaliation for new export controls that China imposed on rare earth minerals. Around 70% of the global supply of rare earth minerals comes from China. The minerals are essential for high-tech industries, including automobiles, defense, and semiconductors.

Apparel & Footwear

Uniqlo to expand US footprint

Apparel retailer Uniqlo will expand its footprint with 11 new locations in the U.S. in 2026, the company said in an Oct 6 announcement sent to Retail Dive. The retailer will open two stores in Chicago, one in San Francisco, and four additional stores in New York City. Other locations include Boston, Seattle, Washington, D.C., and Annapolis, Maryland. Twenty years ago, Uniqlo launched its first flagship store outside of Japan in SoHo. Now, the company is accelerating its presence. The upcoming Chicago and San Francisco locations mark the retailer’s first flagship stores outside of New York City in the U.S.

American Eagle eyes 60% cut in tariff costs from mitigation measures

American Eagle Outfitters expects to reduce the U.S. tariff impact by more than 60% by early 2026 via several mitigation efforts, company executives said in a Sept. 3 earnings call. The company’s strategy involves ongoing price increases, negotiating costs with suppliers, choosing the most cost-effective transport between air and ocean freight, and shifting sourcing away from countries subject to higher U.S. levies, CFO Mike Mathias said. “We are using all levers to mitigate tariff increases,” Executive Chairman and CEO Jay Schottenstein told investors. “Early efforts have been successful.”

Levi’s says it could double its US store count

Levi Strauss & Co. Q3 net sales rose 7% year over year to $1.5 billion. Beyond Yoga, up 2.5%, provided $33 million of that; Levi’s rose 7%. Gross margin expanded by 110 basis points to 61.7%, offset by tariffs. Total inventories rose 12% on a dollar basis. Net income from continuing operations (minus the Dockers business, which has been sold) was more than five times higher than the year-ago period, reaching $122 million. The company could double its store count in the U.S., CEO Michelle Gass told analysts Thursday, Oct 9th. Levi’s runs nearly 460 stores in the Americas, according to its most recent annual report. Once Beyond Yoga opens four stores in Boston, Houston, and Northern California in Q4, its store count will be 14, executives said.

Athletic & Sporting Goods

After slump, Nike’s running business nears ‘inflection point’

While corporate challenges persist, on a quarterly earnings call with stock analysts this week, CEO Elliott Hill said Nike’s running business grew 20% in the quarter that ended Aug. 31, which he described as an “early window” into what’s next. Nike’s wholesale business grew 7%.  Running is Nike’s legacy business, but it lost ground in the category in recent years as it leaned into retro sneakers and selling products on its website and in its stores.  Running USA’s recent Global Runner Survey, which polled 12,700 racers, ranked Nike No. 6 for training shoes and No. 2 for racing shoes.  When he started work about a year ago, Hill, who came up through sales, reversed the recent focuses on retro sneakers and direct sales.  Nike is now organized around specific sports. Running was the first product category to benefit from the new approach, and Hill said it’s enabled the development of better products.

Tommie Copper Acquires Freeze Sleeve

Tommie Copper, the pioneer of Wearable Wellness, announced that it has acquired Freeze Sleeve, the innovators of gel cooling technology for at-home use. The company said the acquisition of Freeze Sleeve aligns with its mission “to empower individuals to live an active lifestyle with comfort and confidence.”  “With Freeze Sleeve’s expertise in cold therapy and Tommie Copper’s dedication to relief, recovery and performance, this union promises to deliver enhanced solutions for customers seeking holistic pain management from head to toe,” said Josh Krauss, VP Marketing & eCommerce for Tommie Copper.  “We are excited to add Freeze Sleeve to our growing portfolio of brands,” noted Tommie Copper CEO Sol Jacobs. “With Tommie Copper, ProFoot footcare, ProFoot hosiery, BetterICE, and now, Freeze Sleeve, we continue to build the Tommie Copper brand portfolio into a one-stop-shop for comprehensive pain-management solutions for our direct to consumer and retail partners.”  Mike Riordan, founder of Freeze Sleeve, shared his optimism about the acquisition. “This strategic move integrates Freeze Sleeve’s pioneering technology into Tommie Copper’s well-established portfolio of pain-management brands. Their resources, expertise, and marketing power significantly enhance the potential for the brand.”

Kammok Acquires CLIQ: Expanding Comfort, Elevating Adventure

Kammok announced the addition of CLIQ, maker of the popular CLIQ Chair and other compact outdoor essentials.  Kammok has built a reputation for creating best-in-class outdoor products, from the ultra-portable Swiftlet™ hammock stand to the Crosswing™ awning, which together are redefining the on- and around-vehicle adventure experience. Guided by our mission to help people Go Far. Rest Easy., the addition of CLIQ continues that commitment with products that are durable, compact, and engineered to perform far beyond their size. As Kammok explored the camping chair space, they discovered CLIQ — and quickly realized that if they were going to build their own chair, this is how they would do it. Built to the same Adventure grade. Better Made. standard, CLIQ products embody the quality and innovation that define Kammok gear.

Cosmetics & Pharmacy

kdc/one Acquires Business and Operations of Barony Universal to Expand Global Manufacturing and U.K. Presence

Knowlton Development Corporation, Inc., or kdc/one, is a trusted global innovator and manufacturing partner that spans beauty, personal care, and home solutions for over 1,000 of the world’s most iconic and emerging brands. Recently, it announced its acquisition of Barony Universal, the U.K.’s largest independent personal care and household aerosol products manufacturer. Located in Irvine, Scotland, Barony is a premium manufacturer and global exporter of aerosols since 1994, dedicated to spearheading a greener aerosol industry. They produce products ranging from anti-perspirant sprays, dry shampoos, shaving foams, deodorants, and specialist fabric and air care sprays for over 30 countries.

The Body Shop returns to the US market
The Body Shop is reentering the U.S. market in October through e-commerce via a dedicated website and an Amazon storefront, per a press release shared with Retail Dive. The beauty brand will be selling bath, body, skin care, and hair care products, including previously popular items, and plans to extend its fragrance line. The move is part of a “reinvigorated global growth strategy focused on consumer centricity, omnichannel availability and innovation across product and experience,” per the press release.

Johnson & Johnson ordered to pay $966 million after jury finds company liable in talc cancer case

A Los Angeles jury ordered Johnson & Johnson to pay $966 million to the family of a woman who died from mesothelioma, finding the company liable in the latest lawsuit alleging its baby powder products cause cancer. The family of Mae Moore, who died in 2021, sued the company the same year, claiming Johnson & Johnson’s talc baby powder products contained asbestos fibers that caused her rare cancer. The jury ordered the company to pay $16 million in compensatory damages and $950 million in punitive damages, according to court filings. The verdict could be reduced on appeal as the U.S. Supreme Court has found that punitive damages should generally be no more than nine times compensatory damages. Representatives for Johnson & Johnson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Rite Aid closes all stores

Five months after filing for bankruptcy — its second Chapter 11 in just eight months — Rite Aid has closed all of its locations, according to a notice on its website. At the time of its filing in May, the drugstore retailer operated about 1,275 stores and three distribution centers across 15 states, employing approximately 24,500 people. The company blamed its most recent troubles on the retail side of its stores, though its debt load dragged down the entire operation, according to analysts. There has been little to no interest in acquiring Rite Aid’s entire enterprise. CVS, Walgreens, and others have taken over about 1,000 Rite Aid stores since this year’s bankruptcy filing, and Dollar Tree is snapping up a few unexpired leases.

Discounters & Department Stores

Dollar Tree to open 1.25M-square-foot Arizona distribution center

Dollar Tree purchased a 1.25-million-square-foot distribution center outside of Phoenix, Arizona, according to an Oct. 3 press release. The distribution center aims to help the retailer strengthen its supply chain in the southwest region, Chief Supply Chain Officer Roxanne Weng said in a statement. The facility is slated to open in spring 2026 and will service stores in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah, per the release. The facility will be one of Dollar Tree’s largest distribution centers, according to the press release. The new Dollar Tree facility is expected to create 400 jobs.

Costco Shares Rise After Reporting Strong September Sales Growth

Costco Wholesale Corp shares moved higher by about 2% on Thursday, Oct 9th, after the membership-based retailer shared upbeat sales results for September, according to a Thursday press release. The company’s net sales for the five-week period ended Oct. 5 climbed 8% year over year to $26.58 billion. Comparable sales increased 5.7%, led by a 5.1% gain in the U.S., 6.3% growth in Canada, and an 8.5% rise across other international markets. Costco said online sales also strengthened, jumping 26% from the same period last year as more shoppers turned to digital channels. The company currently operates 914 warehouses, including 629 in the United States.

Emerging Consumer Companies

Harry’s launches cologne collection

Harry’s, the men’s grooming brand known for thoughtful design and quality, has introduced its first-ever line of cologne, which marks its permanent entrance into the fragrance category. The debut collection is made up of three unique scents that are bold in presence, layered in detail, and are built to last. Offered at an accessible $35 price point, the collection combines premium fragrance craftsmanship with elevated design details such as a weighted aluminum cap, frosted glass bottle, and satin accents. The collection delivers a high-quality, approachable product that enhances Harry’s brand equity and builds on scent equity that Harry’s has already established in the body wash category. Harry’s was founded in 2013 by Jeff Raider and Andy Katz-Mayfield, who wanted to create a better and more affordable shaving experience for themselves and guys everywhere. Today, Harry’s is the second biggest shave brand globally and is part of the grooming routines of over 30 million people.

Gymshark’s first two U.S. stores “only the beginning”

Gymshark’s first two permanent U.S. stores — both of which will open in the next two months in New York state — are “only the beginning” of the British activewear brand’s expanded footprint in the country, Gymshark’s global GM of wholesale, retail and franchise, Hannah Mercer, said. The first location, at Roosevelt Field mall on Long Island, will open on October 11th and serve as a concept store, at 4,000 square feet. The second location, on Bond Street in Manhattan, will open in December and be a flagship store, at 13,000 square feet. The latter will have four floors, with a full selection of merchandise, along with live events and workout studios. Both stores come on the heels of Gymshark’s earlier New York City pop-ups, which ran in March 2017, December 2024, and May 2025. The two U.S. stores are a notable development for Gymshark, which began as an online-only brand in 2012 but has been building its physical retail presence over the last three years.

Alec’s Ice Cream, regenerative ice cream brand, raises $11 million Series A

Alec’s Ice Cream, the first and only A2 regenerative organic ice cream brand, has announced the successful closing of its oversubscribed $11 million Series A funding round led by Imaginary Ventures. Additional investors include Great Circle Ventures, Altelan Capital, DAYBREAKER, Dr. Anthony Guston, and Monique Volz (Ambitious Kitchen). This funding will support Alec’s Ice Cream’s mission to assist farmers in building regenerative supply chains and accelerate growth through innovation, marketing, and team expansion—paving the way for a more sustainable food future. This raise follows Alec’s Ice Cream’s viral sellout launch of Culture Cup, its new line of pre- and probiotic single-serve cups, now available nationwide at Whole Foods Market, Wegmans, and Target.

Women’s ski brand Halfdays raises $10 Million Series A

Halfdays, a women’s skiwear brand, announced on Thursday that it raised a $10 million Series A funding round led by apparel manufacturer Kellwood Company with participation from Dick’s Sporting Goods Ventures and the model Taylor Hill. Founded in 2020 by Ariana Ferwerda, Karelle Golda and Kiley McKinnon (a former Olympic skier), Halfdays was created to fill the gap in the relatively limited women’s skiwear market between the technically-sound but drab options from the category’s major players and fashion-first but less performance-ready (or ultra-expensive) items from brands like Moncler. Their line, meanwhile, features sleek, colourful outerwear, base layers and more, sits at an accessible but still aspirational price point — a jacket costs around $500, snow pants are about $300.

Food & Beverage

ADIA, Goldman Sachs take stakes in Haagen-Dazs maker at $18B valuation

Froneri, the ice cream group behind Häagen-Dazs, has secured fresh backing from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and Goldman Sachs Alternatives, valuing the company at around €15 billion ($17.6 billion) including debt. The transaction involved a continuation vehicle arranged by PAI Partners, which co-owns Froneri alongside Nestlé. The total equity raised amounted to €3.6 billion, including co-investment from ADIA alongside the continuation vehicle, which represented only a portion of that total. Founded in 2016 as a joint venture between PAI’s R&R Ice Cream and Nestlé, Froneri has expanded aggressively, including the $4 billion purchase of Nestlé’s U.S. ice cream operations in 2019. Today, the group generates $5.5 billion in annual sales from brands such as Häagen-Dazs and Rowntree’s, competing directly with Unilever’s soon-to-be spun-off Magnum Ice Cream Company.

Sazerac acquires Western Son Vodka

Sazerac Co has bought Texas-based Western Son Vodka and Distillery, expanding both its spirits portfolio and production footprint. The deal adds Western Son’s range of small-batch vodkas and gin to Sazerac’s line-up, which includes Buffalo Trace bourbon, Fireball Cinnamon whisky, Southern Comfort, Svedka vodka, and Myers’s rum. Financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed. Western Son was launched in 2011 and produces its vodka in Texas, along with a range of flavor extensions, including blueberry, lemon, and strawberry. The company also owns a gin.

Windoria acquires Saudi Arabian sauce manufacturer Al-Fursan

Windoria, the new combined entity following the merger of La Doria and Winland Foods, has acquired Saudi Arabian sauce and condiment manufacturer Al-Fursan Al-Maghawear (Al-Fursan). The acquisition, expected to close by the end of October, marks the first-ever majority transaction in Saudi Arabia by a company backed by a European private equity firm (InvestIndustrial). Al-Fursan, along with its subsidiaries Al-Faris Al-Arabi Trading and Al-Faris Food Industries, produces and distributes sauces, condiments, and other shelf-stable food products. It is particularly known for its ketchup and vinegar products, with Baidar among its several nationally recognized brands.

Grocery & Restaurants

Sun Holdings purchases Bar Louie out of bankruptcy

Multi-concept restaurant operator Sun Holdings has bought Bar Louie out of bankruptcy, the Dallas-based holding company said Tuesday. Bar Louie, a gastropub chain with 39 locations across the United States, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in late March after abruptly closing restaurants in Michigan, Ohio, and New Jersey. At the time, it cited rising costs and changing consumer preferences for its difficulties and listed 48 locations on its website. Dallas-based Sun Holdings operates more than 1,800 retail and hospitality locations. It’s a franchisee of Applebee’s, Arby’s, Burger King, Freebirds World Burrito, Golden Corral, IHOP, McAlister’s Deli, Papa Johns, Popeyes, and Taco Bueno, according to its website. It also operates GNC locations and a variety of Marriott, Hilton, and Hyatt hotel properties.

Wendy’s announces brand revitalization plan

The Wendy’s Co. has launched Project Fresh, a strategic plan designed to revitalize the brand, reignite growth, and accelerate profitability across the Wendy’s system. The Dublin, Ohio-based company has retained Creed UnCo, led by Greg Creed, former CEO of Taco Bell and Yum Brands, to assist in transforming its marketing program. “Wendy’s board of directors and management team are dissatisfied with the current valuation of the company and have been working to put the company on the right path to create value for our franchisees, employees and shareholders,” Art Winkleblack, Wendy’s chairman, said in a statement. The Project Fresh plan is expected to provide a roadmap centered across four core pillars: brand revitalization, system optimization, operational excellence, and a reallocation of capital and resources to drive profitable growth. Together, these initiatives will redefine how Wendy’s operates, invests, and engages with customers to create long-term value.

Home & Road

Bed Bath & Beyond offers franchising to jump-start revival of store fleet

The Murray, Utah-based company — owner of the Bed Bath & Beyond, Buy Buy Baby and Overstock brands — said it plans to launch a national franchise system, working with local entrepreneurs. “Our goal is to grow Bed Bath & Beyond in the most capital efficient manner,” Marcus Lemonis, executive chairman of the company, said in a statement. “This system enables local owners to deliver personal service and local flavor while leveraging our national infrastructure, marketing and technology.” The franchise model will enable Bed Bath & Beyond “to operate a smaller footprint of corporate stores nationwide while a complementary franchise network extends its reach,” according to the company. Franchisees, in turn, will reap the benefits of having the systems — like inventory control and data gathering — of a national retailer at their disposal.

Bassett rides tariff tailwind in Q3, but long-term outlook cloudy

As the impact of continued tariff policy changes and attendant uncertainty continues to ripple across the furniture industry, domestic manufacturers find themselves forced into a delicate balancing act. For Virginia-based full line supplier Bassett, managing the tariff tightrope walk has been about leveraging its supply chain to offset downsides. The company posted a return to profitability in its fiscal third quarter 2025, citing higher sales, improved margins, and lower expenses as key factors offsetting continued headwinds facing the industry, tariffs being the principal among them. “We have been adjusting to the impact that tariffs have on our supply chain and, in some respects, on consumer confidence in general,” CEO Rob Spilman Jr. said on the company’s recent earnings call. Spilman said the company has implemented a price increase on the DTC side in response to tariff pressures.

Jewelry & Luxury

Gold prices keep rising, and jewelry companies are sounding the alarm

Amid global economic turbulence, the prices of precious metals have been climbing. The price of gold in particular has skyrocketed over the past year, rising more than 50%. For midsize jewelry companies aiming to offer fine gold necklaces, earrings, and more at lower price points than legacy luxury jewelry brands, gold futures could be spelling trouble. Though gold is often subject to market fluctuations, investors have been increasing their holdings over the past year over recession fears and market uncertainty, according to Goldman Sachs. Gold is on pace for its third straight year of double-digit gains, even hitting record highs this week during the government shutdown.

Frasers Group buys majority stake in luxury retailer The Webster

British retail giant Frasers Group has purchased a majority stake in The Webster, a multi-brand luxury retailer in the US. The Webster, known for its curated selection of more than 100 luxury brands, including Chanel, Dior, and Gucci, has seen 10% revenue growth and expanded its presence to 13 stores across North America. The financial details of the transaction have not been disclosed. The Webster’s founder and CEO, Laure Hériard Dubreuil, will retain a portion of the company’s shares and continue to manage its operations. Dubreuil has stated that the move marks “the start of a new chapter” for the company.

Office & Leisure

Crecera Brands Acquires Salt Strong

Crecera Brands, the parent of Sportsman’s Guide, The Golf Warehouse and Baseball Savings, reported reaching an agreement to acquire Salt Strong, an online fishing app serving the saltwater fishing community.  Salt Strong, based in Winter Haven, FL, is a membership-based service that utilizes AI and fishing guides to forecast the optimal times and locations to catch fish.  Luke and Joe Simonds, brothers and founders, will continue to run the business.

Orvis to Close 36 Locations by 2026

Vermont-based outdoor retailer Orvis will shutter 36 locations by early 2026 in a broad restructure that will sharpen the company’s focus on fly fishing and wingshooting. President Simon Perkins cited tariffs as one of the reasons for the company’s recent challenges.  Orvis will close 31 stores and five outlets by early 2026, reads the statement, without specifying which locations or how many employees will be impacted. More than 50 U.S. retail stores are listed on the company’s website in addition to a broad authorized dealer network, which Perkins said Orvis will continue to focus on.

Technology & Internet

Amazon Prime Day Underwhelms Shoppers, Signaling Caution For Holidays

Wearied by inflation and growing economic uncertainty, shoppers used Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days to stock up on practical everyday essentials once they went on sale, a tracking survey conducted by Numerator indicates. “With half of consumers saying tariffs are affecting what they buy and how they shop during the event, they’re focusing their purchases on everyday essentials such as apparel, shoes, household items, and home goods,” Numerator analyst Shawn Paustian said. After Amazon reported its July, four-day Prime sales event was the company’s biggest – aggregated online spending was more than two Black Fridays, Adobe Analytics reported – the company was hoping to pull out another win for its two-day October sales event on Oct. 7-8. However, early indicators are that its October Prime Big Deal Days’ performance was more ho-hum than the jolly ho-ho-ho hoped for.

Finance & Economy

WTO hikes global trade forecast for 2025 — but next year doesn’t look so good

The World Trade Organization on Tuesday, Oct 7th, hiked its forecast for global trade growth in 2025, but warned the outlook for 2026 had deteriorated. In its latest “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” report, the WTO predicted that trade volume growth in 2025 would stand at 2.4%, up sharply from a previous estimate of 0.9% in the trade body’s August report. The outlook for next year is not so rosy, however, with the organization slashing its previous expectation of 1.8% trade volume growth next year to a lackluster 0.5%. “Trade growth is expected to slow in 2026 as the global economy cools and as the full impact of higher tariffs is finally felt for a full year,” the WTO said.

Crypto markets violently crash after Trump’s latest tariffs

The crypto market witnessed more than $7.5 billion in positions liquidated within an hour following President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 100% tariff on China. As per the latest Coinglass data, $6.22 billion in long and $1.29 billion in short positions got wiped out during the period. Bitcoin led with $1.83 billion in liquidation, followed by Ethereum with $1.68 billion, Solana with 614.38 million, and XRP with $432.46 million. If we look at the past 24 hours, more than $9 billion has been liquidated from the crypto market. $7.5 billion in long and $1.5 billion in short positions got wiped out during the period.