The Weekly Consensus

The Weekly Consensus

Maeghan Thompson

Story of the Week

Anta, Li Ning Reportedly in Talks to Acquire Castore; Li Ning Denies Contact, Anta Declines Comment

Castore co-founder Tom Beahon told the Financial Times the British sportswear brand is in talks over a potential sale with Anta Sports, Li Ning and some large American footwear and apparel brands. Li Ning said it has had no contact with any party, and Anta declined to comment. Castore was valued at about $1.3 billion in a 2023 fundraising and posted revenue of $447.6 million and a pre-tax loss of about $54.6 million in the 18 months to August 2025. Beahon said the sale effort is largely driven by financial investors seeking to exit, and that he and his brother Phil intend to stay on and run the business.

Apparel & Footwear

David’s Bridal Announces Planned Separation of Pearl, Creating an Independent Digital Wedding Planning, Media and Commerce Platform

David’s Bridal and K&F Growth Acquisition Corp. II, a special purpose acquisition company, announced a non-binding letter of intent for a business combination that would make Pearl, David’s Bridal’s AI-powered wedding planning, media, commerce and vendor marketplace division, a standalone public company. The deal values Pearl at a pro forma enterprise value of about $350 million, roughly 9.3 times projected 2027 EBITDA, and contemplates a $75 million PIPE that includes a proposed $25 million anchor investment from CION Investment Corporation, David’s Bridal’s largest shareholder. Pearl projects EBITDA margins above 30% in 2026 and revenue growth of more than 100% in 2027 to over $85 million. David’s Bridal CEO Kelly Cook is expected to lead Pearl, with closing anticipated in the first half of 2027.

Ecco’s CEO Resigns

Thomas Gøgsig has resigned as CEO of Ecco after more than 14 years with the company, most recently in the top role. Ecco’s board will seek an external candidate and work with remaining management in the interim. The departure follows a loss of €24.0 million in 2025 and €37.59 million in 2024, with sales down 5% in both years.

Cosmetics & Pharmacy

Chanel sells majority Capsum stake to Motion EP

Chanel has sold its majority stake in innovation and manufacturing partner Capsum for an undisclosed amount. Private equity firm Motion Equity Partners acquired the majority stake alongside founding CEO Sébastien Bardon and the Capsum management team, and Chanel will retain a minority stake in the company. Capsum formulates high-end skin care, make-up and fragrances, and its clients include Chanel, L’Occitane and Elizabeth Arden. Motion Equity Partners will support Capsum to activate new growth drivers globally, including acceleration of its multi-technology offering beyond microfluids in the US and growth opportunities within the Asian market.

Unilever agrees to sell first-aid brand Welly Health

Forward Consumer Partners announced it has signed an agreement to acquire Welly Health PBC, a leading first-aid and bandage brand, from Unilever. Forward expects the transaction to close by the end of 2026, subject to certain closing conditions. Welly was created in 2018 by serial entrepreneur Eric Ryan as a disruptive consumer healthcare brand and offers a full range of first aid products designed to clean, protect, and heal a variety of everyday injuries. Welly marks Forward’s eighth investment since its inception in 2023, and the Greenwich, Conn.-based firm manages $925 million of committed capital, with a portfolio that includes Kodiak, Justin’s and Bar Keeper’s Friend. Matt Leeds, founder and managing partner of Forward Consumer Partners, said Welly is a textbook Forward asset: a powerful brand that makes beloved products, with an enduring track record of success and significant untapped potential.

BeautyPro Buys Supercover as Ibs Ansari Takes Charge of the Make-Up Brand His Parents Founded

BeautyPro has acquired Supercover, the foundation brand established by Zaf and Najma Ansari in 1997, with their son, Ibs Ansari, a co-creator of BeautyPro, set to run the business under its new ownership. The deal, for an undisclosed sum, marks BeautyPro’s third acquisition in under two years and expands its portfolio into complexion make-up. One of its previous acquisitions was Skin Sapiens, which it purchased in April 2025. Supercover’s foundation range spans 42 shades across ten undertones, and the brand has an established following among make-up artists and South Asian consumers. Ansari described Supercover as a brand with real heritage and a genuinely loyal customer base.

Discounters & Department Stores

Belk Secures $1.27B in New Financing

Belk has closed on $1.275 billion in new senior secured credit facilities from Wells Fargo and Pathlight Capital, with Wells Fargo acting as administrative and collateral agent and Pathlight as term loan agent for the first-in, last-out facility. The five-year financing replaces the department store’s existing asset-based, FILO and securitization facilities, simplifying its capital structure and adding liquidity for working capital, seasonal inventory and other corporate needs. CFO Vince Phelan called the deal an opportunistic milestone that reflects the strength of the business. The Charlotte-based retailer runs nearly 300 Belk, Belk Market and Belk Outlet stores across 16 Southeastern states.

Walmart Enlists Sam’s Club in Latest Challenge to Amazon Prime

Walmart now lets customers combine Walmart+ and Sam’s Club Plus memberships for $120 a year, nearly $100 less than buying both separately and below the $139 price of Amazon Prime. The bundle includes member pricing and 2% Sam’s Cash at Sam’s Club, free delivery from both retailers, a choice of Peacock or Paramount+, and a 10-cent-per-gallon fuel discount at more than 17,000 stations. With 4,615 Walmart stores and more than 600 Sam’s Clubs in the U.S., the retailer is betting the package locks in loyalty ahead of the holidays, including among the higher-income shoppers it has recently won.

Emerging Consumer Companies

The $15M Series A Wager That Mikayla Nogueira’s POV Beauty Can Turn TikTok Fame Into A Lasting Brand

POV Beauty, the skin-prep brand co-founded by Mikayla Nogueira, who has around 21 million followers across TikTok and Instagram, and beauty industry veteran Ani Hadjinian, formerly GM of North America at Augustinus Bader, has closed a $15 million series A round led by Silas Capital, with participation from RÉDO Capital and Imaginary Ventures, the brand’s pre-launch backer. The financing arrives just six weeks after the brand exclusively entered Sephora stores across the United States and select locations in Canada, and POV Beauty reports that its first-week sales at Sephora exceeded the retailer’s projections by 80%. POV Beauty’s fresh funding will go toward supporting its Sephora and TikTok Shop presence, expanding its team and developing new products that bridge skincare and makeup. Launched direct-to-consumer in March 2025 with five skin-prep products priced $22 to $38 and formulated in South Korea, the brand reached $1 million in sales within eight minutes of launching. Brian Thorne, partner at Silas Capital, said the brand’s overwhelming momentum made it clear they are poised to lead the skin-prep category.

Rosie raises $7 Million to bring flexible childcare and household support beyond Seattle

Rosie, the membership for flexible childcare and household support, announced that it has raised $7 million across two oversubscribed financing rounds. Bling Capital and Reach Capital led the rounds, with participation from Graham & Walker, Marketplace Capital, Ingeborg Investments, Precursor Ventures, Mother Ventures, Yonder Ventures and notable angels including co-founder of DoorDash, Evan Moore. The funding will support Rosie’s first expansion beyond Seattle, with launches planned in Austin and San Francisco in the coming months. Founded by former Amazon & YC leaders and mothers Mitra Raman and Karthika Shankar, Rosie quietly launched in Seattle in January 2026. The founders worked as Rosie’s first Pros to learn what families and Pros need. Since then, Rosie Pros have delivered more than 17,000 hours of childcare and household support to over 250 member families through organic growth.

WILDE Raises $40 million to accelerate its rise in protein snacking

WILDE, the brand challenging the traditional snack aisle by building salty, craveable snacks from all-natural chicken breast, announced a $40 million investment from S2G Investments. The funding will catapult WILDE’s next phase of growth across product innovation, manufacturing, and brand building as the company expands its position in the fast-growing protein snacking category. The investment comes as WILDE enters its next chapter, with the scale to reinvent what snacking can be on a much bigger stage. The company has surpassed $100 million in sales, expanded to more than 35,000 retail locations nationwide, and recently opened a 130,000-square-foot production facility, the only USDA-regulated salty snack manufacturing facility in the world. The new facility expands WILDE’s production capacity sixfold as the brand continues to grow.

Food & Beverage

Hain Celestial ‘mulls possible Chapter 11’

Hain Celestial is weighing a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing as soon as November as it contends with heavy debt and weakening demand for its natural and organic foods, Bloomberg reported, though no final decision has been made. The report came as Hain disclosed that its $323 million sale of its international business to private equity firm Aurelius, announced in September, has not met a key condition. That deal required Hain and its lenders to amend its credit agreement by Oct. 12, and they did not. Hain said it is still pursuing a path to complete the sale and remains in talks with lenders on its capital structure. The shares fell roughly by half on the news, to about 30 cents. Hain lost $305 million in fiscal 2026 and has been shrinking to a North American portfolio that includes Celestial Seasonings tea, Earth’s Best baby food, Greek Gods yogurt, Spectrum oils, MaraNatha nut butters and Imagine broths. A spokesperson declined to address the report but said the company is advancing a turnaround focused on strengthening its capital structure and simplifying its portfolio.

Abbott plans to spin out its nutrition business

Abbott plans to separate its global nutrition business into an independent, publicly traded company, with the spinoff expected to be completed by the end of 2027, subject to regulatory approval and other conditions. The business generates about $8.5 billion in annual sales and includes Similac, Ensure and Pedialyte. It brought in $2.26 billion in the third quarter, up about 5% from a year earlier. Abbott shareholders will own shares in both companies, and the remaining business will focus on diagnostics, established pharmaceuticals and medical devices, with roughly $42 billion in sales. CEO Robert Ford said the nutrition unit will be better positioned as an independent company to direct resources toward growing demand for healthy nutrition. The unit has weighed on Abbott’s growth and carries litigation overhang from the 2022 infant formula recall, including a $385 million settlement with the Department of Justice in September. Analysts said the separation should improve growth and margins for the remaining company.

US firm Dan-O’s Seasoning secures private-equity investment

US-based spice and seasoning business Dan-O’s Seasoning has secured new backing as the company looks to expand the distribution of its products. The Kentucky-based company has received $25m from private-equity firm The Newcastle Network, and it confirmed founder Dan Oliver and CEO Phillip Crosby will continue to run the business. The proceeds will be used to launch product formats and try to widen the availability of the company’s products across retail and online. Dan-O’s products are available at retailers including Walmart, Kroger and Publix, and the company has moved into meal starters and dip mixes. The investment is The Newcastle Network’s first in food, and Chris Casgar, managing partner of The Newcastle Network, said Oliver has built far more than a seasoning company.

Italian group Rispo moves to new private-equity owners

Italian frozen-food maker Rispo Group is getting a new private-equity owner as Bluegem Capital Partners takes a majority stake. Bluegem is acquiring the business from Europe Capital Partners, and Rispo’s management are also investing in the firm with an undisclosed minority interest. Based in Maddaloni, Campania, the business makes products including arancini, olive all’ascolana and fiori di zucca at four factories in Italy, and it supplies the local market and 15 other countries, employing around 250 people. Bluegem estimates Rispo will generate revenue this year of more than €90m ($100.8m) and deliver EBITDA of around €14m. Bluegem’s ambition is to build on Rispo’s strong foundations to create a pan-European platform in premium frozen specialities, with a focus on accelerating international growth, particularly in premium frozen pinsa/focaccia romana.

B&G Foods sells bean brands amid push to sharpen business

B&G Foods is selling its baked beans and brown bread brand B&M and Joan of Arc bean line to McCall Farms, the food maker’s latest divestiture as it aims to sharpen its business focus. Financial terms of the sale were not disclosed, and B&G said it plans to use the net proceeds to pay down its debt. Robert Mills, B&G’s CEO, said the sale is another step in the company’s efforts to simplify its portfolio, focus on its core brands and strengthen its balance sheet. B&G sold its Le Sueur brand of premium sweet peas, green beans and carrots to McCall Farms in 2025, and it terminated the sale of its Green Giant business in Canada after regulators expressed concern that the divestiture may violate antitrust laws. During its second quarter, B&G sales totaled $383.3 million, down nearly 10% from the same period in 2025.

Grocery & Restaurants

Landry’s to acquire most of Fireman Hospitality Group’s concepts in bankruptcy auction

The multi-concept restaurant group Landry’s Inc. has made a $22 million bid to acquire most of Fireman Hospitality Group’s restaurants out of bankruptcy. The Fireman group, which is parent to the iconic New York restaurants Café Fiorello, Trattoria Dell’Arte, and Bond 45, among others, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in August. The filing came about a year after founder Sheldon (Shelly) Fireman died at the age of 93. Fireman’s restaurants were known for key locations in New York’s theater district, and near Carnegie Hall and Lincoln Center. Some concepts also were operated in Washington, D.C. Landry’s has long been a collector of restaurant concepts, including many out of bankruptcy. The group owns the Mastro’s Steakhouse, Ocean Club, Morton’s The Steakhouse, Del Frisco’s, and The Palm, as well as Rainforest Café, Saltgrass Steak, and Bubba Gump Shrimp Co.

A potential buyer emerges for some bankrupt Wendy’s restaurants

A potential buyer has emerged for a group of Wendy’s restaurants operated by the bankrupt Wendy’s franchisee Meritage Hospitality Group. Hiren Patel, the owner of Divine Investors, which operates both Dunkin’ and KFC locations, is proposing to buy 42 Wendy’s restaurants out of bankruptcy for $18.6 million. The restaurants are in Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Missouri. They represent about 17% of the 254 Meritage restaurants and must receive court approval first. The deal could be closed by late November. According to court documents, Meritage believes the offer is the highest or otherwise best offer for what is known as Meritage’s Tennessee business. Patel plans to operate the 42 restaurants as a going concern and the cash from the sale will provide critical liquidity for the debtors’ estates and is a key component of its restructuring.

Home & Road

Lithia & Driveway (LAD) Reports Third Quarter Results, Achieves 54% Increase in Diluted Earnings Per Share, 9% Increase in Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share, and Raises Quarterly Dividend 7%

Lithia & Driveway reported record third quarter revenue of $9.9 billion, up 3% year over year. Diluted EPS rose 54% to $13.22 and adjusted diluted EPS rose 9% to $10.34, though adjusted net income fell 5% to $229.3 million and the GAAP figure was lifted by an unrealized gain on its Pinewood Technologies investment. Used retail gross profit per unit rose $197, or 11%, and financing operations income rose 69% to $32.3 million. The company raised its quarterly dividend 7% to $0.75 per share and has acquired $1.17 billion in expected annualized revenue year to date, including four Memphis stores that add $250 million.

Winnebago Industries Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2026 Results

Winnebago Industries reported fourth quarter fiscal 2026 net revenues of $645.1 million, down 17.0% from $777.3 million a year earlier on lower unit volume and product mix. Adjusted earnings per diluted share fell 31.0% to $0.49, while full-year adjusted EPS rose 7.2% to $1.79 on revenue of $2.7 billion, down 3.4%. For fiscal 2027, the company guided to net revenues of $2.65 billion to $2.80 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.65 to $2.25, and it expects 2026 North American RV wholesale shipments of 275,000 to 295,000 units. Net leverage improved to 2.2x from 3.0x in the prior quarter.

Genuine Parts Company Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results

Genuine Parts Company reported third quarter sales of $6.5 billion, up 4.2%, with comparable sales up 2.9%. Adjusted EPS rose to $2.07 from $1.98, while GAAP net income was $224 million, or $1.62 per diluted share. The company narrowed its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $7.50 to $7.75 from $7.50 to $8.00. CEO Will Stengel said the separation of the Automotive and Industrial businesses into two independent companies, GPC and Motion, remains on track for the first quarter of 2027.

Jewelry & Luxury

PGI USA Set to Close at Year’s End

Platinum Guild International is closing its PGI USA office, along with its operations in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong, as part of a global restructuring, while keeping its offices in China and India. PGI USA, based in New York since 1992, will cease operations on Dec. 31, and the organization said the change reflects a new operating structure rather than reduced confidence in the U.S. market. The office promoted platinum to consumers for bridal and everyday wear, including through its Platinum Born collection, which PGI said will continue without production disruption.

The RealReal Secures Fresh Financing

The RealReal has entered a credit agreement for a new $150 million senior secured term loan and a $25 million revolving credit facility, both managed by affiliates of Fortress Investment Group and maturing in 2033. The luxury resale marketplace is using the proceeds to repay all of its senior secured notes due in 2029. CFO Ajay Gopal said the company has cut total debt by more than $80 million over two years and that the refinancing lowers interest costs and extends its maturity profile. For consumers, the deal shores up a major U.S. channel for buying and consigning secondhand luxury goods heading into the holiday season.

De Beers Sales Volume Jumps After Price Cut

De Beers’ third-quarter rough diamond sales volume rose 71% year over year to 9.8 million carats, as a price cut at its July sale appeared to draw buyers back. Consolidated volume nearly doubled to 8.7 million carats, but the average selling price fell 45% to $84 per carat. The miner also raised its 2026 production guidance to 25 million to 28 million carats after taking full ownership of Canada’s Gahcho Kué mine. For North American shoppers, the steep drop in rough prices points to continued pressure on natural diamond pricing heading into the holidays.

Sporting Goods & Leisure

Smith & Wesson Acquires Savage Arms

Smith & Wesson Brands announced it acquired Savage Arms from an indirect subsidiary of JDH Capital in a deal valuing Savage at $160 million, subject to customary adjustments. The price comprises approximately 9 million shares of Smith & Wesson common stock, valued at $13.62 per share, plus $37.5 million in cash, and represents about 7.9x Savage’s adjusted EBITDA for the twelve months ended September 30, 2026. Savage generated approximately $160 million of net sales over that period, and the deal is expected to add about $18 million of incremental EBITDAS on a full-year basis. JDH now owns 16.7% of Smith & Wesson and has appointed a representative to its seven-member board.

Adidas’ record Q3 is salt in the wound for Nike

Adidas reported preliminary third-quarter revenue of 7.3 billion euros ($8.1 billion), up 9% year over year and a company record. Operating income rose 37% to 1 billion euros, also a record, helped by about 200 million euros in tariff refunds, the majority of what Adidas expects to receive. The company raised its full-year operating profit guidance to 2.5 billion euros and expects currency-neutral revenue growth of up to 10%. Gross margin improved 2.5 percentage points to 54.3%, and Adidas will reinvest 100 million euros in the fourth quarter to improve operating leverage.

Cannondale to Close Connecticut Offices, Relocate to the Netherlands

Cannondale announced it will close its home office in Wilton, Connecticut, and relocate its global headquarters to Woudenberg, the Netherlands, laying off 143 workers in phases beginning December 21. Cycling Sports Group, which operates the brand, filed WARN notices showing separations continuing through December 31, 2027. North American offices will be reestablished on the West Coast, and Cannondale will adopt a sales model in which outside representatives cover multiple brands of parent Pon.Bike, including Santa Cruz and Cervélo. R&D and engineering will remain in Germany.

Beretta Holding S.A. Announces Final Results of Cash Tender Offer for Shares of Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.

Beretta Holding announced the final results of its cash tender offer for shares of Sturm, Ruger & Company. The offer sought up to 2,400,184 shares at $44.80 per share and was oversubscribed, with 6,094,325 shares validly tendered. Beretta accepted 2,400,184 shares on a pro rata basis, a proration factor of about 39.4%. After the purchase, Beretta will beneficially own about 25.0% of Ruger’s outstanding shares.

Technology & Internet

Etsy bans AI-generated recipes and patterns from its online marketplace

Etsy said it will no longer allow merchants to sell AI-generated recipes and patterns on its online marketplace, as part of a wider push to set firmer rules around the use of artificial intelligence on its platform. In a blog post, Etsy said it’s banning the sale of functional guides that are created using AI, including patterns, cooking recipes and instructions. The products are usually marketed as digital downloads, such as crochet or sewing patterns. Users then put in effort to achieve a finished product, the company said. Sellers will also be required to show an actual item made using the instructions, not an AI-generated or simulated result, so buyers know what to expect, Etsy said. Etsy said in a separate notice to sellers that it was making the changes as AI threatens to erode buyers’ and sellers’ trust in the platform.

EBay to lay off 9% of workforce in its second round of job cuts this year

EBay will lay off about 9% of its workforce in a move to streamline its operations and focus on its fastest-growing areas, a company spokesperson confirmed to CNBC. The layoffs will affect approximately 1,000 employees. “As we work to capture the significant opportunity ahead, this step was taken to ensure we continue to operate from a position of strength by aligning our teams and resources with our top strategic priorities,” a spokesperson said in a statement. The company also said it will continue to hire in priority areas aligned with its strategy. As of the end of 2025, eBay had roughly 12,300 employees.

Finance & Economy

Mortgage Rates Decrease to 7.32%

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 7.32% from 7.40% a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac, the first weekly decline since late August. A year ago the rate was 6.19%. The 15-year fixed eased to 6.68% from 6.71%. The dip follows a pullback in the 10-year Treasury yield, which fell about 19 basis points in a day to roughly 4.95%, its biggest one-day drop since March 2023, as an AI-driven stock selloff sent investors into bonds. Mortgage rates follow Treasury yields with a lag, so yields would need to stay lower for weeks to bring real relief. On a $400,000 loan, the latest drop trims the monthly payment by only about $22. Markets now see roughly a 7% chance of a Fed rate hike at its meeting, down from about 28% a week earlier.

Consumer sentiment has fallen to a five-month low on inflation fears

The University of Michigan’s final October consumer sentiment reading was 48.0, revised up from the preliminary 46.3 but down from 48.1 in September. That leaves it 10.4% below a year ago and about 15% below February, just before the Iran conflict began. The current conditions index fell to 46.7 from 50.9, driven entirely by buying conditions for durable goods, which plunged 18% on higher interest rates and affordability worries. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7% from 4.6% and long-run expectations to 3.5% from 3.4%, the second straight monthly increase and the highest since May. Survey director Joanne Hsu warned that after five years of above-target inflation, elevated expectations risk becoming entrenched. For households, high prices and borrowing costs are making big-ticket purchases like cars and appliances harder to justify.

Jobless claims near the lowest since the 1960s as low-fire trend continues

Initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 194,000, below the 200,000 economists expected and near the lowest level since the late 1960s, the Labor Department reported. The total is just off the 189,000 reported in mid-July, the lowest since September 1969. The four-week average fell to 197,750, the lowest since 2022, while continuing claims rose by 25,000 to 1.73 million, a six-week high. Large employers including eBay and Kroger have announced sizable job cuts, but there is no sign of widespread layoffs. Hiring remains soft, with private employers adding an average of only 18,500 jobs a week, according to ADP. For households, layoffs remain rare, but those who do lose a job are taking longer to find a new one.