The Weekly Consensus

The Weekly Consensus

Maeghan Thompson

Story of the Week

L’Oréal is acquiring Kering’s beauty division for $4.7B

Kering and L’Oréal have entered a strategic partnership focused on luxury beauty and wellness. L’Oréal will acquire Kering’s beauty business, including the House of Creed, for more than $4 billion. Under the terms of this agreement, Kering has the right to sell Kering Beauté, including the House of Creed, to L’Oréal. The partnership also includes the rights to enter into a 50-year exclusive license for the creation, development, and distribution of fragrance and beauty products for Gucci, commencing after the expiration of the current license with Coty. Kering will also grant L’Oréal 50-year exclusive licenses for the creation, development, and distribution of fragrance and beauty products for Bottega Veneta and Balenciaga.

Apparel & Footwear

Industry Veteran Angel Martinez Makes Footwear Comeback as Co-CEO of Oofos

Oofos is reorganizing its top leadership roles. On Wednesday, October 22, the recovery footwear brand tapped industry veteran Angel Martinez to serve as Co-Chief Executive Officer. He will serve alongside Oofos cofounder Lou Panaccione in the role. As Co-CEOs, Martinez will oversee brand, product creation, sales, and marketing, while Panaccione will focus on product development, operations, supply chain, finance, and culture. The company noted that this structure “reflects a shared vision for the future of Oofos and the brand’s readiness for continued expansion.”

Adidas sees 12% revenue growth in Q3FY25

Sportswear manufacturer Adidas’ currency-neutral revenues for the Adidas brand increased 12 percent, driven by broad-based double-digit growth across markets, product divisions, categories, and channels. Having completed the sale of the remaining Yeezy inventory at the end of last year, the company’s results for the third quarter of 2025 do not include any Yeezy contribution. Including Yeezy sales in the prior-year quarter, currency-neutral revenues increased 8 percent. Revenues reached ~$7.69 billion in Q3FY25. The company’s gross margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 51.8 percent in the quarter, despite the negative impact of unfavorable currency movements and higher tariffs.

Athletic & Sporting Goods

Crunch Franchisee CR Fitness Gets $350M Investment To Fuel More Expansion

Crunch Fitness franchisee CR Fitness Holdings has landed a $350 million strategic investment from global investment firm Sixth Street, fueling an expansion push that will see the group look to add more than 100 clubs over the next five years.  North Castle Partners, which led a majority investment in CR Fitness in 2019 and recapitalized the business in 2022, will remain the largest shareholder and continue its partnership alongside Sixth Street. The deal also includes a new senior debt facility provided by Golub Capital.   The deal comes as the high-value, low-price (HVLP) gym category continues to outperform the fitness industry overall. According to the Health & Fitness Association’s latest FIT Tracker, HVLP gyms hit record visitation levels in the third quarter. HVLP clubs, a favorite of Gen Z, are seeing traffic 22% above pre-pandemic levels.

Causeway Capital Acquires Whyte Bikes

Whyte Bikes has announced that it has been acquired by Causeway Capital in a deal which will see the existing management team continue to lead the business.  In a deal which sees Whyte Bikes’ ownership transfer between the private equity firms Cairngorm Capital and Causeway Capital, the new owners hope it will be a “major step forwards for the future and international growth” of the UK brand. The Whyte Bikes press release announcing the deal said the new partnership will help to strengthen the brand’s “ability to drive ongoing innovation, service its dealer base and collaborate with key suppliers and partners.”

Spanish Padel Brand Nox Secures Equity Investment

Oakley Capital Investments, Ltd., a pan-European private equity investor, has acquired a majority stake in Nox, the Spanish maker of padel rackets. Founder Jesús Ballvé and GPF Partners will retain a “significant minority stake” in the business.  Founded in 2008 in Barcelona, Nox reports distributing “over 400,000 padel rackets annually in more than 80 countries,” with the sport’s elite players, including world number one Agustín Tapia, using the brand’s rackets.  Over the past four years, Nox has sustained rapid growth, posting a CAGR exceeding 50 percent.  Oakley Capital remarked that padel is expanding rapidly, growing at an estimated 25 percent annually, driven by its accessibility, broad appeal, alignment with fitness trends, and capacity to attract players across generations. This surge is reinforced by new court construction and more tennis clubs converting courts to padel.

Cosmetics & Pharmacy

LVMH Reportedly Weighs Sale of Its 50% Stake in Rihanna’s Fenty Beauty

LVMH is said to be exploring the sale of its 50% ownership in Fenty Beauty, the cosmetics brand it co-founded with Rihanna in 2017, according to sources familiar with the matter. While LVMH and Rihanna’s representatives have not commented, sources estimate the brand could fetch between US$1 billion and US$2 billion, based on its 2024 net sales of approximately US$450 million. Fenty Beauty, launched through LVMH’s Kendo Brands incubator, gained global traction for its inclusive product range and diverse shade offerings. It remains one of the most successful celebrity-led beauty ventures, with distribution through Sephora and Amazon.

JOY GROUP Acquires Italian Hair Care Brand Foltène to Expand Global Dermatological Portfolio

Shanghai-based JOY GROUP has completed its acquisition of Italian dermatological hair care brand Foltène, marking a full transfer of the brand’s assets, supply chain, and research operations. Founded in Milan in 1944, Foltène is known for its clinically backed anti-hair loss and scalp care products featuring patented active complexes Tricosaccaride® and Tricalgoxyl®. Its portfolio spans shampoos, ampoules, and serums for both men and women and is sold in over 30 countries. The acquisition includes Foltène’s global distribution network and Italian research laboratory. It strengthens JOY GROUP’s diversification strategy, which focuses on building a multi-brand, multi-category presence across color cosmetics, skincare, and now hair and scalp health.

FineToday Cancels Tokyo IPO Again Amid Market Volatility and Valuation Concerns

CVC Capital Partners-backed FineToday Holdings Co. has withdrawn its planned initial public offering on the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s Standard Market, citing unfavorable market conditions. This marks the company’s second cancellation of an IPO attempt within a year. FineToday had intended to list on November 5, 2025, with an indicative share price of ¥1,470 (US$9.75) and a target raise of ¥18.7 billion through new share issuance. According to sources, investor demand fell short of the company’s valuation expectations. Analysts estimated FineToday’s valuation carried a 14% premium over Japanese peers such as Kose Corp. and Shiseido Co., with an EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.4x. The company stated that any decision to revisit the IPO will depend on future market trends and that the current withdrawal reflects a focus on shareholder interests amid volatile conditions.

Discounters & Department Stores

Target cuts 1,800 corporate jobs in its first major layoffs in a decade

Target said on Thursday (October 23rd) it’s cutting 1,800 corporate jobs as the retailer tries to get back to growth after four years of roughly stagnant sales. It marks the first major round of layoffs in a decade for the Minneapolis-based retailer. It announced the layoffs in a memo sent by Target’s incoming CEO, Michael Fiddelke, to employees at its headquarters. The eliminated roles include about 1,000 employee layoffs and about 800 positions that will no longer be filled, a company spokesman said. Together, they represent an approximately 8% cut to Target’s corporate workforce, according to the memo. Affected employees will be notified on Tuesday (October 28th).

Five Below expands to Pacific Northwest

Five Below is expanding its footprint to the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. with eight new stores this November, per a recent press release. Each of the new locations across Washington and Oregon will host a grand opening event on Nov. 8 featuring free giveaways, exclusive deals, and more. The first 100 customers at each store during the event will receive a $10 gift card. The Pacific Northwest stores will be in malls and neighborhood shopping centers, some of which appear to be former Party City locations, according to MapQuest and Google Maps search results. Five Below was a top bidder on Party City’s store leases earlier this year after the event and celebration retailer filed for bankruptcy.

Emerging Consumer Companies

CourtReserve, a St. Augustine, Fla.-based tennis and pickleball brand, raised $54 million

CourtReserve, a leading club management software provider for racquet and paddle sports facilities, has announced a $54 million strategic growth investment from Mainsail Partners. This growth equity firm specializes in scaling vertical SaaS businesses. The investment will enable CourtReserve to accelerate product innovation, strengthen its platform, and expand its presence across North America. Founded in 2016, CourtReserve has become a trusted partner to more than 2,000 racquet clubs and paddle sports facilities, serving a community of over five million players. The platform provides an integrated solution for club operations, encompassing court booking, membership management, event scheduling, payments, and mobile experiences.

Food & Beverage

Food industry prepares to fight MAHA in states

As the U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy’s push to tackle ultraprocessed foods and artificial dyes gains momentum in states, food and beverage giants are uniting in a coordinated effort to fight back. Major food and beverage companies — including Coca-Cola, Kraft Heinz, General Mills, and Nestlé — have formed a lobbying alliance to stop the spread of state laws that have targeted everything from artificial dyes to ultraprocessed foods. The group, called Americans for Ingredient Transparency, is instead pushing for a national standard. “This patchwork of state laws creates confusion for consumers and limits our choices, it drives up our costs at the grocery store, and hurts our small businesses,” the group said in a launch video. “A clear, national ingredient and labeling law fixes that.”

Chobani raises $650M to support growth, innovation

Chobani said it raised $650 million from “industry thought leaders,” which the Greek yogurt giant plans to invest in growing production and supporting innovation. The New York-based food maker noted that the additional capital, along with its “strong” operating cash flows, will help fund its expansion in Twin Falls, Idaho, and its new $1.2 billion food manufacturing plant in Rome, New York — the largest facility investment in the company’s history. Chobani did not identify the investors who participated in the latest round.

Sazerac invests more than $1B in US spirits production

Sazerac is investing more than $1 billion in new and existing facilities, expanding production as premium spirits remain more resilient than other alcohol counterparts despite declining alcohol consumption. The Fireball and Buffalo Trace owner is investing $1 billion in new barrel-aging warehouses in Campbellsville, Kentucky. Sazerac acquired property and sought tax incentives from the state for the new project in August, according to public records and a Sazerac spokesperson. The facility is expected to create at least 50 jobs. The spokesperson didn’t provide additional details on the project but said it was part of the company’s “long-term vision for sustained, strategic growth.”

Supreme acquires SlimFast UK and Europe from Glanbia in £20m deal

Fast-moving consumer goods manufacturer and supplier Supreme has acquired the trade and selected UK and European assets of SlimFast from Glanbia in a £20 million deal, announced today (20 October 2025). Supreme said the acquisition of the weight management brand – known for its range of meal-replacement shakes, bars, and snacks – aligns fully with its ongoing M&A strategy, adding highly recognized brands to its diverse portfolio of high-frequency consumable products. It has acquired the brand for a total cash consideration of £20.1 million, including £9 million of deferred consideration due in 15 months’ time. The acquisition will be financed through a mixture of Supreme’s existing cash resources and utilization of its asset-based lending facility.

Grocery & Restaurants

Heritage Grocers Group could be for sale due to immigration fears

Fear of immigration raids is having such a wide-reaching effect on consumers that private-equity firm Apollo Global Management is looking to sell Hispanic grocery chain Heritage Grocers Group, Reuters reported Wednesday. The Ontario, Calif.-based parent company of El Rancho Supermercado, Cardenas Markets and Tony’s Fresh Market could be sold for $1.5 billion, Reuters reported, citing two people familiar with the potential deal. The company currently has about 115 Hispanic grocery stores in Illinois, Texas, Kansas, California, Nevada and Arizona.

FAT Brands and investors move to settle lawsuit

FAT Brands and the company’s shareholders have proposed a $10 million joint settlement of two derivative lawsuits that accused the company’s CEO Andy Wiederhorn and his affiliates (Fog Cutter Capital Group and Fog Cutter Holdings) of “self-dealing” and “misuse of funds.” One lawsuit, Harris I, filed by FAT Brands stockholders, accuses Wiederhorn of taking tens of millions of dollars from FAT Brands through insider loans and then forgiving his own debt when his holdings company merged with FAT Brands. The second lawsuit, Harris II, claims that after the merger with Fog Cutter Capital, Wiederhorn created a class of “super-voting stock” for himself, giving him permanent control of company shares and “unjustly enriching himself.” Through the proposed settlement filed with the Delaware Court of Chancery earlier this month, the defendants would pay the company $10 million in cash, transfer 200,000 shares of the recently divested Twin Hospitality Group to FAT Brands, and adopt corporate governance reforms.

Home & Road

Former owners of Town & Country Living launch new company

After a significant hiatus, David and Jeffrey Beyda are returning to the home textiles business with a new company buoyed by acquisitions. The former owners of Town & Country Living have formed Threadmade Home together with Bryan and Craig Siegel of Elrene Home Fashions. Threadmade Home has acquired the business of Elrene Home Fashions – a major provider in the window and table linens categories with strong distribution in e-commerce and brick & mortar. In addition, Threadmade has purchased the table linens and kitchen textiles assets of Arlee Home Fashions. Financial terms were not disclosed. With the Siegels serving as co-CEOs and the Beydas as co-founders, the company leadership brings together two families with multi-generational expertise in brand licensing, merchandizing, design, sales, and sourcing.

Flexsteel overcomes ‘choppy’ environment with Q1 sales and profit growth

Residential furniture manufacturer Flexsteel credited expanded sales in case goods and health-and-wellness products with delivering solid top-line growth during the first quarter. Net sales for the period ended Sept. 30 rose 6.2% to $110.4 million compared with net sales of $104 million in the prior year quarter, an increase of $6.4 million. The growth was driven by sourced soft seating products, partially offset by lower unit volume in made-to-order soft seating products and homestyles-branded ready-to-assemble category. The company delivered its eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year sales growth despite “choppy consumer demand and a challenging macroeconomic environment,” noted Derek Schmidt, CEO.

Braxton Culler acquires former Klaussner manufacturing facility

In a move that underscores its commitment to American craftsmanship and job creation, furniture producer Braxton Culler, a Classic Home company, has acquired the former Klaussner Furniture manufacturing facilities of more than 400,000 square feet in Candor. Operations to begin producing wood frames for upholstery, as well as OEM components, are scheduled to begin in the first of the three interconnected facilities on Nov. 1, under the newly formed Peachtree Works. The other two facilities are currently being prepped for future production. “This investment represents more than just growth for our company,” said Harpal Singh, founder and CEO of Classic Home, which owns Braxton Culler and Peachtree Works. “It’s a vote of confidence in the American manufacturing workforce and a belief that craftsmanship still matters. And, given the uncertainty of tariffs, it’s very timely.”

Jewelry & Luxury

Ermenegildo Zegna Group Revenues Reach €1.33B in the First Nine Months of 2025

Ermenegildo Zegna Group announced unaudited revenues of €1,325.9 million for the first nine months of 2025, -2.3% YoY from €1,357.4 million in the first nine months of 2024 (-0.4% organic). In the third quarter of 2025, revenues reached €398.2 million (+0.2% YoY and +3.6% organic). Ermenegildo “Gildo” Zegna, Chairman and CEO, commented: “Q3 2025 Group revenues showed an acceleration in the Direct-to-Consumer channel, which recorded a solid +9% organic growth versus the +6% organic growth reported in the first half of the year. I am pleased with the continued growth of the ZEGNA brand DTC channel, led by the Americas and EMEA, and also delighted to see the meaningfully improved performance of TOM FORD FASHION and Thom Browne, whose DTC channel grew by double digits on an organic basis this quarter…”

Hermes defies US tariffs as sales grow

Sales by French luxury group Hermes, known for its silk scarves and leather handbags, defied US tariffs and a weak dollar to rise in the third quarter. The company, which makes the iconic Birkin bag, said sales growth in the United States accelerated slightly by 7.2 percent in the third quarter, to 714 million euros ($829 million). “In the Americas, we had a very good third quarter, in particular in the United States, with growth driven by all product lines,” said chief financial officer Eric du Halgouet. Hermes said earlier this year that it hoped to avoid further price increases in the United States despite the new 15 percent tariff on goods from the EU, but warned that the weak dollar was also weighing on performance.

Kering Doubles Down on Cost Cuts Despite Glimmers of Hope in Q3

As it prepares for new chief executive officer Luca de Meo to detail his turnaround plan next spring, Kering will continue to cut costs and curb debt, with plans to ramp up store closures, refinance real estate, and dispose of noncore assets. De Meo pledged to double down on his efforts after the ailing French luxury group reported a 10 percent drop in revenue in the third quarter on Wednesday (Oct 22). Still, a better-than-expected performance at the company’s star brand Gucci provided a glimmer of hope. Organic sales at the maker of Jackie handbags and Horsebit loafers fell 14 percent in the three months to Sept. 30, beating a company-compiled consensus forecast of a 16 percent decline. This compares with a 25 percent drop for Gucci in the second quarter.

Office & Leisure

DraftKings acquires predictions platform Railbird

DraftKings is acquiring predictions platform Railbird as it prepares to launch a mobile platform in the coming months to be called DraftKings Predictions.  Railbird is licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to offer an event contracts exchange. DraftKings targeted the company for its team and proprietary technology.  Predictions markets allow customers to trade on the outcomes of various events in the worlds of finance, culture and entertainment, which will allow DraftKings to expand beyond its sports betting business. The markets on election outcomes and sports are the most controversial.

Hostelworld acquires OccasionGenius, an event discovery platform

Global social travel brand Hostelworld has announced the acquisition of OccasionGenius Inc., a U.S.-based B2B event discovery platform, for a total cash consideration of $12 million. The deal marks a strategic step in Hostelworld’s growth plan to evolve into the world’s leading social travel platform, integrating event discovery alongside accommodation and community connection.  Founded in the U.S., OccasionGenius provides a global event dataset via API, featuring local “Things to Do” and large-scale “travel worthy” events designed to inspire trip bookings. The company combines technology-based aggregation with human curation to deliver verified, marketing-ready content including venues, dates, imagery, and descriptive metadata.

Technology & Internet

ShopMy raises $70 million at $1.5 billion valuation to scale curated commerce

ShopMy, the curated commerce infrastructure company, announced it has raised $70 million in funding at a $1.5 billion valuation. The round was led by Avenir, with participation from Bain Capital Ventures, Bessemer Venture Partners, and Menlo Ventures. The round is also supported by several strategic individuals and firms including Sofia Richie, Gregg Renfrew, Raissa Gerona, Alex Mondre of AGM Ventures, and Aimee Song and Jacopo Moschin. ShopMy operates the only integrated marketing system serving premium brands, culture-driving tastemakers, and discerning consumers through technology built for lasting businesses rather than quick marketing campaigns. ShopMy began by serving creators, then brought brands into the ecosystem, and is now directly serving consumers.

Samsung and Google release Galaxy XR AI-powered headset

It’s been more than 17 years since the modern smartphone era began with the launch of the iPhone, and tech companies have been obsessed with trying to disrupt it ever since. The most common approach is mixed reality XR headsets: computerized goggles that put all of your apps and other digital content right in front of your face. Samsung is the latest to take on the category with the Galaxy XR. Samsung will start selling it on Tuesday night for $1,800, about half the price of Apple’s Vision Pro. Early adopters will also get a suite of digital freebies, like free access to the paid version of Google’s Gemini AI assistant and YouTube Premium for a year. The headset was made in partnership with Google for the software and Qualcomm, which makes the chip powering the Galaxy XR. Samsung’s Galaxy XR lets you enter an immersive, virtual computing experience where your apps and other content appear to float in your field of view. External cameras project the real world onto the tiny 4K displays in the headset, meaning you can walk around a room while wearing the Galaxy XR without bumping into anything. You control everything with hand gestures, your voice or a mix of both.

Finance & Economy

Inflation rate hit 3.0% in September, lower than expected, long-awaited CPI report shows

Prices that people pay for a variety of goods and services rose less than expected in September, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report released October 24th, keeping the door open for another interest rate cut next week. The consumer price index showed a 0.3% increase for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.4% and 3.1%. The annual rate rose 0.1 percentage points from August. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI showed a 0.2% monthly gain and an annual rate also at 3% (compared to respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.1%, the latter being unchanged from a month ago). Core CPI on a monthly basis posted 0.3% gains in both July and August. The CPI reading is the only official economic data allowed to be released during the government shutdown.

Mortgage rates fall to lowest level of 2025

Americans frustrated by high home borrowing rates may have gotten some welcome news this week. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 6.19% for the week ending October 23, down from 6.27% last week, according to Freddie Mac data released Thursday (October 23). After years of sluggish activity, sidelined homebuyers may finally be ready to jump back in, with mortgage rates now at their lowest level in more than a year and home prices softening across many major metro areas. “At the start of 2025, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage surpassed 7%, while today it hovers nearly a full percentage point lower,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement.

Rare earths make gains amid battle to beat China’s dominance

Shares of U.S.-listed companies related to the rare earth supply chain climbed on Monday (October 20th) as investors continued to weigh the impact of Chinese export restrictions on domestic producers. Rare earths are minerals that are essential to many aspects of modern life, particularly for the technology sector and the energy transition, as they are used in everything from semiconductors and fighter jets to the motors of electric vehicles. President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed an agreement on Monday to invest in joint ventures to stand up a critical mineral and rare earth supply chain that is not dependent on China.