The Weekly Consensus

The Weekly Consensus

Maeghan Thompson

Story of the Week

Blackstone acquires majority stake in Jersey Mike’s

Private equity giant Blackstone will acquire a majority ownership position in Jersey Mike’s, the fast-growing sub shop purchased by Peter Cancro in 1975. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. Cancro will maintain a significant equity stake and continue to lead the business. The partnership with Blackstone is intended to help enable Jersey Mike’s to accelerate its expansion across and beyond the U.S. market, and continue its technology and digital transformation, according to the companies. Rumors about a Blackstone deal have been swirling since the spring. Addressing those rumors in April, Cancro said the company is “always for sale.”

Apparel & Footwear

A Warm Fall and Hurricanes Hurt Shoe Carnival Sales in Q3

Shoe Carnival cut its full-year sales outlook after warmer weather and two hurricanes contributed to a sales miss in the third quarter. The Evansville, Ind.-based footwear retailer reported that net sales in the third quarter were $306.9 million, down from $319.9 million from the same quarter last year and short of the company’s expectations. Excluding the impact from a shift in the retail calendar, net sales were up 2.2 percent, led by a strong back-to-school performance and sales from the $45 million February acquisition of Rogan Shoes. Comparable store sales declined 4.1 percent in the quarter, due to hurricanes that impacted sales in September and October and warmer weather that delayed demand for boots.

S&P downgrades VF due to declining revenue at key brands

S&P Global Ratings downgraded VF Corp., citing a less favorable view of the company’s competitive position due to revenue declines and weaker credit ratios, according to an S&P statement last week. VF is now rated “BB,” down from its previous score of “BBB-,” which moves the apparel conglomerate from “investment grade,” to “speculative grade.” Companies in the BB category at S&P are defined as being less vulnerable in the near-term, although they still face “major ongoing uncertainties to adverse business, financial and economic conditions.” The analysts said they expect the rest of VF’s 2025 fiscal year, as well as fiscal 2026, to be a transitional period, while the company works to execute its stabilization strategy.

Gildan Activewear Launches Private Offering of Senior Unsecured Notes

Gildan Activewear, Inc. has priced an inaugural offering of CN$700 million aggregate principal amount of senior unsecured notes in two series (Notes), consisting of CN$500 million aggregate principal amount of 4.362 percent senior unsecured notes, Series 1, due 2029 (2029 Notes) and CN$200 million aggregate principal amount of 4.711 percent senior unsecured notes, Series 2, due 2031 (2031 Notes). Gildan reports in Canadian dollars. The 2029 Notes will be issued at par and bear interest at a rate of 4.362 percent per annum, payable semi-annually until maturity on May 22 and November 22 of each year, commencing on May 22, 2025. The 2031 Notes will be issued at par and bear interest at a rate of 4.711 percent per annum, payable semi-annually until maturity on May 22 and November 22 of each year, commencing on May 22, 2025.

 

 

Athletic & Sporting Goods

JD Sports Expects Full Year Profit at Lower End of Forecast on Weaker Comps

JD Sports Fashion Plc, the parent of the JD, Hibbett, Finish Line, DTLR, and Shoe Palace retail brands in the U.S. and JD and others worldwide, reported an update on sales performance for the 13-week period ended November 2, noting that the retailer had a strong back-to-school period but saw much softer consumer demand and trading toward the end of the 13-week period. The measured period roughly mirrors the retail fiscal Q3 period in the U.S.  CEO Régis Schultz of JD Sports Fashion, Plc, said the softer trend line reflected elevated promotional activity, unseasonable weather and a cautious consumer, with evidence supporting suppressed demand in the U.S. ahead of the election.

Nite Ize Spins Off Tru Zip to Stand-Alone Brand

Nite Ize, manufacturer of the Tru Zip toothless, dustproof, and waterproof zipper, announced that the product is now operating as an independent brand. Nite Ize, the product inventor, will remain its sole distributor.  Nite Ize introduced the zipper at the 2019 OR Snow Show in its RunOff Waterproof Bag Collection, where it won Best In Show, Best New Gear, and Gear of the Year. The product also won the 2021 ISPO TextTrends’ Best Product-Accessory and, that same year, honorable mention in TIME‘s Best Inventions. Tru Zip waterproof closures are in use in various industries, including outdoor, watersports, apparel, medical, and food and drink markets. Specific products include CamelBak Fusion Hydration Reservoirs, Simms G4Z Fishing Waders, Patagonia Stealth Pack, HydroFlask Day Escape Coolers, and the Fishpond Thunderhead Submersible Pack Collection.

Cosmetics & Pharmacy

Helen of Troy acquires nail care brand Olive & June

Helen of Troy Limited, designer, developer, and marketer of branded consumer home, outdoor, beauty, and wellness products, announced that it has entered into a definitive merger agreement to acquire the business of Olive & June. Olive & June, founded in 2013, is an innovative, omni-channel nail care brand. The company plays across all nail care categories, including polish, artificial, tools, treatment, and care, delivering a salon-quality experience at home. The purchase price was $240 million, including a $15 million earnout. This implies a multiple of less than 11x adjusted EBITDA for calendar year 2025 (estimated), before synergies. Olive & June’s calendar year 2024 net revenue is projected to be approximately $92 million.

Clean Skin Club Raises $32M In Funding, On Course To Surpass $100M In 2024 Sales

Clean Skin Club, a Weston, FL-based brand at the intersection of skincare and hygiene, raised $32M in funding. The round was led by Astō Consumer Partners and Amberstone. The company intends to use the funds to accelerate its expansion into brick-and-mortar retail channels, new product development and investment in talent. Led by CEO Ben-David Imberman, Clean Skin Club is a skincare brand providing products that enhance skin health while simplifying routines, using natural, vegan, and cruelty-free materials, and designed with sustainability in mind to minimize environmental impact without ever compromising on quality. Founded in 2019, the brand offers their flagship Clean Towels XL, a dermatologist-approved, single-use and 100% USDA bio-based facial towel.

 

Foria Expands Holistic Wellness Offerings With Acquisition Of Sleep-Focused Brand Ned

Foria, the pioneering natural wellness brand known for its innovative solutions for intimate health, announced its acquisition of Ned, a leader in holistic remedies for sleep and stress on November 21st. The acquisition, coming on the heels of Foria’s 10th anniversary in August, will enable Foria to offer its customers a wider range of products, including magnesium-infused blends and full spectrum CBD tinctures and capsules. The Foria community has long sought a broad range of effective, plant-based wellness support, and this acquisition marks a dynamic expansion into a complete wellness ecosystem. In combination with Foria’s existing lines of topical and skincare products supporting intimacy, period care, and menopause concerns, the acquisition of Ned extends Foria’s commitment to the new sectors of sleep support and stress reduction.

Nykaa’s Q2 Profit Surges 72% on Robust Beauty Demand Ahead of Festive Season

Indian beauty and personal care retailer Nykaa reported a 72% jump in second-quarter profit, driven by strong demand in its core beauty segment. Nykaa’s beauty segment, featuring brands like Estée Lauder and Bobbi Brown, outperformed expectations with a 24% revenue rise, buoyed by India’s booming US$28 billion beauty market, forecasted to reach US$45 billion by 2030. Gross merchandise value (GMV) increased by 29% to 36.53 billion rupees, while the fashion segment’s GMV growth slowed to 10%, reflecting broader market challenges amid high inflation. Despite rising advertising and marketing costs, Nykaa maintained stable EBITDA margins of 5.5%. Nykaa’s strong performance underscores the growing demand for beauty products in India’s rapidly expanding middle class, particularly during the festive season.

 

Discounters & Department Stores

Target misses Q3 earnings expectations, lowers guidance

Target’s third-quarter sales of $25.2 billion were down nearly 1% from a year ago, missing some analysts’ expectations. Operating income fell 11% to $1.2 billion from $1.32 billion, while net earnings declined 12.1% to $854 million from $971 million year over year, the company said Wednesday. Overall comparable sales rose 0.3% in Q3, with a comparable store sales decline of 1.9%. The retailer cut its guidance. CEO Brian Cornell said during an earnings call that Target’s digital channel grew by nearly 11% during the quarter, with same-day delivery growth of 20%. The company also reported double digit growth in drive up, which accounted for $2 billion in sales for Q3.

Walmart slashes US delivery costs by 40% per order

Walmart slashed its U.S. net delivery cost per order by 40% in Q3 for the third consecutive quarter, EVP and CFO John David Rainey said in an earnings call Tuesday. “There are a few key factors driving this improvement: delivery densification, increased penetration of paid expedited delivery orders and the automation of our supply chain,” Rainey said. Orders per delivery increased 20% year over year, resulting in more cost-efficient and productive driver routes. Walmart is also handling more than 50% of its fulfillment center volume with automation, twice as much as a year ago, Rainey said.

Walmart raises guidance boosted by strong revenue, e-commerce growth

Walmart’s third quarter consolidated revenue rose 5.5% from a year ago to $169.6 billion, the retailer said Tuesday. Global operating income rose 8.2% to $6.7 billion, up from $6.2 billion year over year. Net sales in the U.S. rose 5% to $114.9 billion, up year over year from $109.4 billion. U.S. comparable sales also rose 5.3%, excluding fuel sales. E-commerce sales rose 27% globally and 22% in the U.S., led in part by store-fulfilled pickup and delivery and the company’s marketplace. Consolidated operating income grew 8.2% to $500 million on higher gross margins, growth in membership income and reduced losses in e-commerce. The company raised its full-year guidance and now expects net sales to increase 4.8% to 5.1%, up from a prior forecast of a 3.75% to 4.75% uptick.

 

 

Emerging Consumer Companies

Alloy, menopause care platform, raises $16 million

Alloy Women’s Health, a menopause care platform offering telemedicine services and treatment plans, has secured $16 million in Series A funding. The round was led by Kairos HQ, with participation from PACE Healthcare Capital, Emmeline Ventures, and Amboy Street Ventures. Alloy operates on a direct-to-consumer model, charging a $50 annual fee with prescriptions starting at $40 per month. The company has chosen not to accept insurance, focusing instead on price transparency and accessibility. The platform currently employs 28 full-time staff members and works with approximately two dozen doctors. The new funding will enable Alloy to expand beyond treating acute menopause symptoms to offering products across hair, skin, and sexual wellness categories for women in midlife.

Fanstake, platform for fans to help recruit and retain college athletes, raises $3 million

Fanstake, the first free-market name, image, and likeness (NIL) solution that gives fans a voice in shaping their teams while helping athletes earn their fair market value, has raised $3 million in a pre-seed round led by Susa Ventures and Will Ventures, with participation from various angel investors. Using Fanstake, fans can pledge financial support, known as “staking,” to promising recruits, transfer players, or current rostered athletes they want to see play for their favorite college team next season. If a fan’s “staked” athlete chooses the fan’s school, Fanstake strikes an authentic NIL endorsement deal with that player. If the athlete chooses another school, the fan gets their money credited back to their Fanstake account, and the other school’s fanbase contributes to the endorsement deal instead.

Healthy snack brand KoRo raises €35 million

German healthy snack brand KoRo has raised €35 million in an oversubscribed Series C round led by Coefficient Capital. Existing investors such as Five Seasons Ventures, HV Capital, Partech, Haub Legacy, and SevenVentures also participated. KoRo is known for offering non-perishable goods and superfoods in bulk, including clean-label snacks, nut butters, breakfast products, and functional foods. The brand has successfully bucked the downward sales trend in German e-commerce, and previously raised €70 million in Series B funding.

Crown Affair raises $9 million Series B

Crown Affair, a brand aiming to own the clean hairstyling space in prestige haircare, has secured $9 million in a series B funding round led by True Beauty Ventures. The round marks the beauty and wellness venture capital firm’s fourth investment in Crown Affair, which has raised nearly $16 million over five rounds. Crown Affair is on pace to close in on $20 million in revenues and profitability this year. Last year, it hit $8 million in revenues. Launched online in 2020, the brand joined Sephora’s lineup two years later. Now, it’s in around 200 Sephora doors, and select smaller retailers such as Goop and Violet Grey. Sales are evenly split between DTC and retail. Crown Affair’s team currently stands at about 16 full-time staff.

 

 

Food & Beverage

Lifeway rejects Danone’s second takeover offer

Lifeway Foods rejected an increased offer from Danone, with the kefir products maker saying the latest proposal “substantially undervalues” its business. Dairy giant Danone last week increased its offer to buy the remaining stock it doesn’t already own in Lifeway to about $307 million, or $27 a share, up from an earlier $283 million, or $25 a share, proposal in September. Danone currently owns 23.3% of Lifeway’s common shares. “The Company plans to continue to build on its strong momentum to unlock additional shareholder value,” Lifeway said in a statement. “The Board and management are committed to acting in the best interests of all shareholders and ensuring that they are able to realize the full potential value of their investment.”

Nestlé to cut $2.8B in costs, separate water into standalone business

Nestlé plans to cut at least $2.8 billion in costs by 2027, with the savings invested into other parts of its business. The Lean Cuisine and Nespresso manufacturer also plans to increase advertising and marketing to grow sales and market share of some of its biggest brands. The Switzerland-based CPG giant announced at its investor day that it would separate its waters and premium beverages business into a standalone business beginning in 2025. The business, which includes brands such as Perrier and Sanpellegrino, represents just under 4% of its global sales and has struggled recently. Nestlé management said it will evaluate the strategy for the business, including partnership opportunities.

Arnott’s Group acquires three BFY snack brands

The Arnott’s Group has acquired three better-for-you snack brands — Mother Earth, Flemings and VP — from the New Zealand-based food manufacturer Prolife Foods Ltd. Mother Earth was founded in 1973 as a healthy baked loaves brand but has expanded its BFY product portfolio to include nuts, natural peanut butter, honey, bars and fruit snacks. After Prolife Foods bought Mother Earth in 2008, it would eventually begin selling Mother Earth products in various global markets, including Australia. Flemings was founded in 1999 as a muesli bar brand based on its 100-year oat heritage, Prolife Foods said. VP also covers a wide range of BFY products, including nuts, nut blends and snacks. All three brands will join Arnott’s Group’s portfolio of BFY cereals and snacks, which includes Freedom, Messy Monley and Sunsol.

 

Grocery & Restaurants

Craveworthy Brands acquires Fresh Brothers Pizza

Craveworthy Brands has expanded its growing restaurant portfolio with the acquisition of Fresh Brothers Pizza, the Chicago-based group said Monday. Scott and Adam Goldberg founded Fresh Brothers in Southern California in 2008, offering Chicago-style tavern pizza, but with a focus on fresh ingredients. There are currently 22 locations of the chain in Los Angeles, San Diego, and Orange County offering vegan and gluten-free options, as well as those with gluten, meat, and cheese. In a release announcing the acquisition, Craveworthy said it would expand the brand through franchising. The purchase of Fresh Brothers, Craveworthy’s 15th brand, comes on the heels of Craveworthy creating Global Taste Brands, a joint venture with private equity firm New Summit Capital to bring international concepts to the United States.

Seven & i shares surge as founding family reportedly taking firm private

Shares of 7-Eleven owner Seven & i soared nearly 11% on Wednesday after a report said the company’s founding family was raising more than $50 billion to take the company private within this fiscal year. According to a report by Japanese public broadcaster NHK, the founding family will raise over 8 trillion yen ($51.66 billion) from “three Japanese megabanks and major American financial institutions,” according to a Google translation of the report in Japanese. The funds will be used by a special-purpose company to carry out a tender offer for Seven & i shares, with the goal to complete the plan by March 2025.

Home & Road

Williams-Sonoma posts Q3 profit even as revenues remain down

Top 100 retailer Williams-Sonoma Inc., which owns and operates Pottery Barn and West Elm, posted another three months of profits in the third quarter of fiscal year 2024, even as its sales remained off last year’s pace. For the three months ended Oct. 27, the San Francisco-based retailer’s net revenues totaled $1.8 billion, down 2.86% compared with $1.854 billion for the third quarter of 2023. By brand, Pottery Barn’s $718 million was 7.71% off the $778 million from a year ago, while West Elm totaled $451 million, down 3.22% from 2023’s $466 million. But while sales were down, the company recorded another quarter of profits. For the quarter, Williams-Sonoma’s net earnings totaled $248.95 million, or $1.96 per diluted share, an increase of 25.11% compared with net earnings of $237.29 million, or $1.83 per diluted share.

Retail segment drives La-Z-Boy sales gains in Q2

La-Z-Boy reported its second consecutive quarter of sales growth during its second quarter, with its retail segment leading the way. For the quarter ended Oct. 26, written sales for the retail segment (which consists of company-owned La-Z-Boy Furniture Galleries stores) rose 6% to $221.6 million as growth from new and acquired stores more than offset lower same-store sales, which slipped 1%. The comp decrease resulted from lower traffic and softer industry-wide demand. Delivered sales in the segment increased 3% to $222 million versus last year, primarily due to growth from new and acquired stores. La-Z-Boy added three new stores and acquired two independent La-Z-Boy Furniture Galleries® stores during the quarter.

Jewelry & Luxury

Rocksbox Ventures Into Brick-and-Mortar Retail

At its first physical location, a pop-up boutique in San Francisco, Rocksbox is targeting jewelry self-purchasers who want to visit a store to try on new pieces, learn more about jewelry styling, and discover designers. Rocksbox’s San Francisco shop is located at 2208 Fillmore St. in the fashionable Pacific Heights neighborhood, with neighbors including Catbird, Alexis Bittar, Gorjana, Fiat Lux Jewelry, and Eileen Fisher. It will host a grand-opening event on Dec. 14 and will run through May (with an option to continue). The store’s interior was designed to look like a friend’s home, where you are meeting to experiment with new and new-to-you jewelry, says Rocksbox president Allison Vigil. Instead of glass cases, jewelry is displayed out in the open, so shoppers can see pieces without looking through anything.

50 million people have stopped buying luxury brands like Dior and Burberry after ‘broken promises’ to customers

Nothing gold can stay. Despite years of strong performance, the market for personal luxury goods is set to slow down this year for the first time since the 2009 Great Recession. Now, 50 million luxury consumers have either ditched buying designer bags, scarves, watches, and more—or have been priced out, Bain & Company’s new annual luxury report warns. Only a third of luxury brands will end the year with positive growth, Bain posited, down from two-thirds last year. Looking ahead, it said that to stay alive, brands need to reevaluate their value proposition—mainly for Gen Zers—and keep meeting their growing expectations. As for how? Marie Driscoll, an equity analyst focused on luxury retail, told Fortune that reinvention is key. “Get back to books, make products more inspirational, make the shopping experience marvelous,” Driscoll said. “You need to constantly meet consumers at a new angle and surprise and delight them.”

Office & Leisure

Bally’s Investors Approve Standard General Takeover

Casino operator Bally’s announced on November 19th that its shareholders approved a previously announced takeover by Standard General, a hedge fund with an existing stake in the Company. In March, Standard General, which is controlled by Bally’s Chairman Soo Kim, floated a $15 per share takeover offer. This was upped to $18.25 a share, which the regional casino operator accepted in July. The March offer arrived 26 months after the hedge fund attempted to acquire the gaming company in January 2022, offering $38 a share at that time.

Marriott lays off workers amid larger organizational restructuring

The state of Maryland made public a Work Adjustment and Retraining Notice stating 833 Marriott employees were impacted by a mass layoff at the company. Marriott International is underway on a companywide restructuring that will result in layoffs for a significant number of corporate employees, the company confirmed to Hotel Dive on November 15th. A Marriott spokesperson told Hotel Dive that, earlier this year, the company “began a strategic review of all aspects of Marriott International’s business across geographies to enhance our enterprise-wide effectiveness.” This process has resulted in job reductions companywide.

Developer FromSoftware’s parent Kadokawa confirms buyout interest from Sony

Video game developer and publisher FromSoftware’s parent company Kadokawa has confirmed that Sony has issued a letter of intent to acquire the firm’s shares, but clarified that “no decision has been made at this time.” The statement was posted on the firm’s website and is signed by CEO Takeshi Natsuno, following a Reuters report earlier this week that Sony was in talks to acquire Kadokawa. “There are some articles on the acquisition of Kadokawa Corporation (hereinafter ‘the Company’) by Sony Group Inc,” the statement read. “However, this information is not announced by the company. The company has received an initial letter of intent to acquire the company’s shares, but no decision has been made at this time. If there are any facts that should be announced in the future, we will make an announcement in a timely and appropriate manner.”

Technology & Internet

Oura valued at $5B following deal with medical device firm Dexcom

Smart ring maker Oura announced on Tuesday that it has received a $75 million investment from glucose device maker Dexcom. The investment marks Oura’s Series D funding round and brings the company’s valuation to more than $5 billion. The partnership paves the way for the two companies’ devices and apps to be used together, which means Oura rings will eventually help users monitor their blood sugar. “Ninety-seven percent of Oura Members have expressed interest in understanding how the food they eat impacts their health,” said Oura CEO Tom Hale in a press release. “This partnership with Dexcom will enable us to empower our members to make informed decisions and adjust behaviors to positively impact their biometrics and long-term health.” The first app integration resulting from the partnership is expected to launch in the first half of 2025.

Amazon to invest another $4 billion in Anthropic, OpenAI’s biggest rival

Amazon on Friday announced it would invest an additional $4 billion in Anthropic, the artificial intelligence startup founded by ex-OpenAI research executives. The new funding brings the tech giant’s total investment to $8 billion, though Amazon will retain its position as a minority investor, according to Anthropic, the San Francisco-based company behind the Claude chatbot and AI model. Amazon Web Services will also become Anthropic’s “primary cloud and training partner,” according to a blog post. From now on, Anthropic will use AWS Trainium and Inferentia chips to train and deploy its largest AI models. Anthropic is the company behind Claude — one of the chatbots that, like OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini, has exploded in popularity.

 

Finance & Economy

Jobless claims fall to 7-month low, show labor market ‘trending sideways at a healthy level’

Weekly jobless claims rose less than expected last week, reaching a seven-month low, as the impact of labor strikes and severe weather has made weekly data noisy over the last few months. New data from the Department of Labor showed 213,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the week ending Nov. 16, down from 219,000 the week prior and below the 220,000 economists had expected. The weekly unemployment claims have been falling steadily throughout the past several weeks after hitting their highest level in more than a year in October. Meanwhile, the number of continuing applications for unemployment benefits hit 1.9 million, up 36,000 from the week prior and the highest level since November 2021.

Oil Rises on Signs of Further Escalation in Russia-Ukraine War

Oil rose on signs that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is escalating further. Brent climbed near $74 a barrel after Ukraine said Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile at the central city of Dnipro, following the expanded use of Western-provided long-range weapons by Kyiv’s forces. The Russian strike, if confirmed, appears to be the first use of such a weapon since its development at the inception of the Cold War. There have also been some bullish indications for prices in recent days, with premiums of refined products over crude climbing to multi-month highs. In the US, a proxy of the margins obtained from turning crude into gasoline and diesel hit the highest level since August as Gulf Coast fuel makers step up production to meet rising exports.

Home sales surged in October, just before mortgage rates jumped

A sharp drop in mortgage rates brought homebuyers off the fence in October after a slow summer. Sales of previously owned homes last month rose 3.4% from September to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 3.96 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 2.9% higher than October of last year, marking the first annual increase in more than three years. This count is based on signed contracts, meaning most of the deals were made in August and September. During that time, the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage was falling. It started August around 6.6% and dropped to a low of 6.11% by mid-September, according to Mortgage News Daily. “The worst of the downturn in home sales could be over, with increasing inventory leading to more transactions,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, in a release.