The Weekly Consensus

The Weekly Consensus

Maeghan Thompson

Story of the Week

BNPL drives over $1B in online spend on Cyber Monday

Capping off a busy retail weekend, online sales for Cyber Monday (December 1st) in the U.S. increased 7.1% year over year to $14.25 billion, according to Adobe Analytics. The five-day period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday generated $44.2 billion in online sales overall, up 7.7% from 2024, per Adobe. For the second holiday season in a row, Adobe found that online spend on Black Friday increased 9.1% year over year to $11.8 billion — outpacing Cyber Monday. Usage of the short-term financing option, buy now, pay later, drove $1.03 billion in online spend, a 4.2% year-over-year increase on Cyber Monday.

Apparel & Footwear

Centric Brands acquires Vingino to boost global kidswear growth

Centric Brands LLC, a leading global lifestyle brand collective, announced the acquisition of the Vingino Group, an international children’s fashion brand known for its innovative products and design. Through this acquisition, Centric will leverage Vingino’s operational and design infrastructure, benefiting from its extensive retail relationships across Europe, Central America, and South America, and best-in-class merchandising capabilities to help expand Centric’s international kids’ business. Founded in 2001 by Marijke van Beek and Bennie Dekker, Vingino is a denim-focused multi-category global brand, based in the Netherlands, offering fashion for all ages. The brand is rooted in quality craftsmanship and enduring style.

Zara owner Inditex beats forecasts with strong start to winter

Zara’s owner, Inditex, beat analysts’ expectations for the start of its fourth quarter — a period that includes the crucial Black Friday weekend — reporting currency-adjusted sales growth of 10.6% in November. The results from Inditex, widely seen as a bellwether for global fast fashion, offer an early read of how retailers fared during the key discounting season, and signal a strong start to the company’s biggest revenue quarter. Shares jumped 7% in morning trading after the announcement, to a nine-month high. The Spanish fast-fashion group also reported robust third-quarter results to October 31, with currency-adjusted sales up 8.4% to 9.8 billion euros ($11.41 billion), beating the 9.69 billion euros forecast by analysts.

American Eagle’s celebrity-led marketing turns sales growth positive

American Eagle Outfitters posted positive results in Q3, with comp sales at its namesake brand inching up. While the company’s intimates line Aerie saw comparable sales jump 11% for the period ended Nov. 1, bolstered by offerings like its Offline athleisure collection, American Eagle was up 1%, according to an earnings statement. That reverses a negative sales trend — American Eagle’s comparable sales were down 3% the prior quarter — but analysts asked for more detail on why growth has been slower to accrue at American Eagle compared to Aerie, given that the former has run a series of expensive, higher-profile ad campaigns in recent months.

PVH Q3 revenue edged up 2%; narrows fiscal 2025 outlook

Clothing company PVH Corp reported a modest 2% rise in third-quarter revenue to $2.294 billion for the period ended November 2, 2025, though growth turned slightly negative on a constant-currency basis. Performance varied across regions: EMEA rose 4% (down 2% in constant currency), Americas increased 2%, and APAC slipped 1% but was flat after currency effects. Wholesale revenue increased 4% compared to the prior year period (up 1% on a constant currency basis), primarily driven by the increase in Americas, partially offset by the decreases in APAC and EMEA.

Tilly’s delivers stronger FY23 Q3; early Q4 momentum builds

American retail clothing company Tilly’s has reported improved profitability for its fiscal third quarter ended November 01, 2025. Total net sales declined 2.7 percent year on year (YoY) to $139.6 million, but comparable net sales rose 2 percent across stores and e-commerce. Store sales dipped 0.9 percent to $110.3 million. The retailer operated 230 stores at quarter-end, down 16 from a year earlier, yet comparable store sales increased 5.3 percent. Stores contributed 79 percent of total revenue, up from 77.6 percent last year. E-commerce revenue fell 9 percent to $29.3 million, largely due to a 51 percent reduction in clearance activity.

Athletic & Sporting Goods

Hoka Sales Fall at Run Specialty as Nike Rebounds and Topo Surges

The run specialty channel experienced growth this year, largely driven by higher average selling prices rather than increased unit sales and in-store traffic. The channel growth is also weaker than the broader market.  These observations were shared by David Durkin, co-owner of the consultancy firm Karnan Associates, and Beth Goldstein, footwear and accessories analyst with Circana, during a research and trends session at The Running Event (TRE) currently taking place in San Antonio, TX.  Running now accounts for about 10 percent of the overall footwear market, and it’s gained about a share point due to recent growth, according to Goldstein.  The gains in running footwear dollar sales across channels are being driven by both higher volume and higher prices this year, while last year’s gains reflect only inflation. Unit sales in the current period were up 4 percent to 52.5 million after declining 2 percent in the same period a year ago.

Blink Fitness to Convert to PureGym

U.K.-based PureGym Limited said recently-acquired Blink Fitness locations in New York and New Jersey will convert to the PureGym model with an initial pilot involving three locations. The remaining locations are set to rebrand in coming months.  In September 2024, PureGym Limited announced the completion of its acquisition of Blink for $121 million in cash. At the time of the acquisition, Blink Fitness had 67 gym locations in New York and New Jersey.  Launched in the UK in 2009, PureGym operates more than 500 gyms largely in Europe, including corporate-owned gyms in the UK, Denmark, Switzerland and the U.S.  The conversion will lead to the locations being open 24/7. Under PureGym’s high-value, low-cost format model, members pay monthly and have no contractual commitment with an emphasis on affordability.

Cosmetics & Pharmacy

L’Oreal to increase stake in skin care firm Galderma to 20%

L’Oreal will double its stake in Swiss skin care firm Galderma to 20%, potentially earning the French company a bigger cut of profits from the booming market for injectable cosmetics like lip filler and anti-wrinkle treatments. L’Oreal is buying the stake for an undisclosed sum from a consortium led by Swedish private equity firm EQT, which also includes Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Auba Investment Pte. Ltd. The deal is due to close in the first quarter of 2026.

Givaudan Acquires US Perfume Manufacturer Belle Aire Creations

Swiss fragrance maker Givaudan has acquired US fragrance manufacturer Belle Aire Creations, the two companies announced on December 1. While terms of the deal were not disclosed, Givaudan shared in a release that Belle Aire Creations’ business would have added around CHF 65 million ($81.1 million) of incremental sales to Givaudan’s results in 2024. The US perfume manufacturer, founded in 1982, will help the Swiss firm strengthen its consumer base and creative capabilities across North America, according to the release. Givaudan, one of the world’s leading flavor and fragrance makers, is well-known for its roster of 42 perfumers and best-selling creations, such as Carolina Herrera’s Good Girl and Prada Paradoxe.

Estée Lauder Restructuring Costs Hit $1.14 Billion as Workforce Cuts Accelerate

Estée Lauder’s restructuring charges have reached $1.14 billion as the company reduces its headcount and consolidates its operations. In a new SEC filing, the group confirmed an additional $285 million in charges since late October tied to streamlining efforts, including service-provider consolidation and standardized business processes. The multi-year program follows earlier plans to cut up to 7,000 jobs; more than 2,600 roles had been eliminated by May. The company recently returned to profitability in its fiscal first quarter, with leadership attributing gains partly to these restructuring measures. The rising cost of restructuring reflects the pressure on global beauty groups to overhaul operations and rebuild competitiveness, particularly in challenged Asian markets.

LVMH Luxury Ventures Invests in Niche Fragrance Brand BDK Parfums

LVMH Luxury Ventures has taken a minority stake in BDK Parfums, marking the brand’s first outside investment. The minority deal (financial terms undisclosed) will support BDK’s international expansion while maintaining its creative and operational independence. Founded in 2016, BDK joins LLV’s portfolio alongside Our Legacy, Gabriela Hearst, Molli, and past beauty investment Officine Universelle Buly 1803. The brand is known for scents such as Gris Charnel and Rouge Smoking, as well as collaborations with perfumers such as Dominique Ropion and Anne Flipo. Joel Palix of Palix Unlimited advised on the transaction.

Discounters & Department Stores

Macy’s cautiously optimistic about the holidays

Macy’s Inc.’s Q3 net sales were essentially flat year over year, edging down slightly to $4.7 billion. In the strongest growth in 13 quarters, comps rose 3.2%, including licensed and marketplace sales. At namesake Macy’s, net sales fell 2.3%, but comps rose 2%; comps at stores slated to remain open rose 2.3%, and at revamped stores rose 2.7%. At Bloomingdale’s, net sales rose 8.6% and comps increased 9%. At Bluemercury, net sales rose 3.8%, with comps up 1.1%. Gross margin declined 20 basis points to 39.4%, primarily due to a 50-basis-point tariff hit. Net income plunged by more than 60% to $11 million, the company reported.

Costco sues Trump administration for tariff refund

Costco is suing the Trump administration, seeking a refund on the tariffs it paid after President Donald Trump imposed levies globally this year under a self-declared national emergency. The retail giant acknowledged that the U.S. Supreme Court would eventually rule on the tariffs’ legality, but said the suit was necessary to prevent U.S. Customs and Border Protection from finalizing the company’s payments on Dec. 15, which would make it more difficult to obtain refunds. “Plaintiff seeks relief from the impending liquidations to ensure that its right to a complete refund is not jeopardized,” per the lawsuit filed on Nov. 28 in the U.S. Court of International Trade.

Dollar Tree attracts more high-income consumers as sales grow

Dollar Tree’s third-quarter net sales increased 9.4% year over year to $4.7 billion, the company stated on December 3rd. The discount chain’s same-store net sales grew 4.2%, based on growth in average ticket despite a 0.3% decline in store traffic. The retailer’s net income improved 4.8% to $244.6 million while gross profit jumped 10.8% to $1.7 billion. Dollar Tree opened 106 new stores in the quarter, ending the period with 9,269 open locations. Dollar Tree narrowed its previous full-year net sales guidance and now expects net sales from continuing operations to range from $19.35 billion to $19.45 billion.

Belk debuts smaller-format Market stores

Belk is going smaller with its new store concept. The department store will offer a curated assortment of national and private brands at the stores, along with a unique selection of products tailored to its new Belk Market locations. The concept is launching with two locations: one in Wesley Chapel, FL, and another in Frisco, TX. Grand openings for both locations will take place on December 13. The stores range from 25,000 to 30,000 square feet. Belk will add additional locations next year, according to a company spokesperson.

Emerging Consumer Companies

Snack brand Graze sold by Unilever to Katjes International

Unilever confirmed that it has sold UK snacks business Graze to German confectionery group Katjes International. Financial terms of the agreement have not been disclosed. The sale is expected to be finalized in the first of half of 2026. Last week, it was reported that Katjes was in advanced talks to acquire Graze for around $46 million. Unilever acquired Graze in 2019 from private-equity firm The Carlyle Group. At the time, it was estimated that Unilever had paid around $200 million for the brand.

Innerskin raises $15 million to fund European expansion

French medical aesthetics group Innerskin has successfully secured €12.8 million ($15 million) in a new funding round designed to fuel its ambitious European expansion. The investment was led by IRIS Ventures, a growth equity firm specializing in next-generation consumer brands, with continued participation from existing shareholder Label Capital. Founded in 2022 by entrepreneur Chrystelle Eid, Innerskin has demonstrated remarkable growth by establishing 19 centers throughout France in just three years. The company has carved a niche by focusing on preventive face and body care, skillfully integrating high-performance technology with holistic, expert-led guidance.

Food & Beverage

Horizon Family Brands buys Maple Hill Creamery to grow better-for-you portfolio

Horizon Family Brands has acquired organic dairy company Maple Hill Creamery as it looks to position itself as a leader in better-for-you food and beverage products. Financial terms of the deal weren’t disclosed. New York-based Maple Hill was founded in 2009 and uses regenerative agricultural practices, with Horizon calling it the “original 100% grass-fed organic dairy company.” In addition to milk, Maple Hill offers kefir, Greek yogurt, butter, and cream-on-top yogurt. The deal marks the first acquisition since Horizon announced its intention to build out its portfolio with a stable of better-for-you brands earlier this year.

Private label’s allure transcends income levels, survey finds

Consumers with household incomes above $100,000 are becoming more likely to buy private label groceries despite saying they are increasingly confident about their financial security, according to survey results published this month by management consulting firm Alvarez & Marsal. A higher percentage of people in higher-income groups said they shop more frequently at lower-priced grocers than shoppers in lower-income groups. Of the 12 tracked categories in the survey, groceries were the only one where shoppers said they expect to boost spending over the next three months.

AriZona buys California plant shuttered by troubled beverage company

A subsidiary of AriZona Beverages has bought a beverage packaging facility in Anaheim, California, in a move to re-establish production at a shuttered facility. The subsidiary, Beverage Packers West, purchased the facility plus equipment from Manna Beverages for an undisclosed amount. The company said in a statement to Food Dive that it is working closely with the city of Anaheim and California’s Office of Business and Economic Development to evaluate next steps for the facility. The Anaheim facility has the capacity to fill 1,150 bottles per minute, according to Harry Davis & Company, which brokered the deal. It also has the capacity to handle 10.9 million cases.

Grocery & Restaurants

Galloway urges Noodles & Company to sell restaurants

Galloway Capital Partners and affiliated companies, which have acquired 6.01% of Noodles & Company’s outstanding shares over the past year, suggested on Tuesday that the company sell approximately 200 of its company-owned restaurants. The fast-casual noodle chain had 349 company-owned restaurants as of Sept. 30 and had 86 franchised restaurants. “After conducting extensive analysis, we believe the company’s shares are materially undervalued and that management of the board must take decisive action to enhance shareholder value,” Galloway principal and chief investment officer Bruce Galloway said in a letter to Noodles & Company chief executive officer Joe Christina. Galloway said it estimated that the recommended sale would generate around $60 million and would allow Noodles to pay off “a substantial portion of its high-cost debt, which currently carries interest rates in the 9-10% range.” That would in turn strengthen cash flow and “eliminate perceived bankruptcy risk.”

Chick-fil-A transitioning away from some licensed units

Chick-fil-A is making a major strategic change to its non-traditional restaurant portfolio. The company is shifting its licensed locations on college campuses, in hospitals, and at theme parks, to its owner/operator model. Chick-fil-A’s owner/operator model is a highly selective franchise system where operators manage a single restaurant, share profits with the company, and have heavy involvement in daily operations while Chick-fil-A retains ownership of the business assets. In a statement, a company spokesperson said, “Chick-fil-A is shifting its licensed location strategy to better serve guests in non-traditional restaurants by transitioning as many as possible to our local ownership franchise model. Over time this shift will impact restaurant locations on college campuses, hospitals, and theme parks.” The reason behind the shift is to ensure a consistent experience across the entire Chick-fil-A system.

Home & Road

Therapedic International merges with largest licensee to create new structure

Therapedic International has merged with its largest licensing partner. The mattress brand and Sleep International of Tampa, Fla., will rebrand as Therapedic Worldwide. The new company encompasses Therapedic Licensing and Sleep International, as well as the company’s network that includes more than 40 licensing partners. Sleep International is owned and operated by the Antinori family and Adam Weinman, the company’s CEO. Under the new ownership structure, Steve Antinori is executive chairman of Therapedic Worldwide. “This merger results in a unified organization, built to serve retailers at every level and ready to compete with any brand in any environment,” Antinori said. The relationship between the two companies isn’t new. Sleep International has been a Therapedic licensing partner since 2011. Throughout the 14-year relationship, the two companies have worked closely together with Therapedic’s other 10 domestic licensees to develop Therapedic’s product lineup, including Tommy Bahama, Nyx and Agility. Since joining forces, the Florida-based manufacturer has become the brand’s largest manufacturing partner expanding across the Southeast and beyond.

Motion outlines American Signature’s stalking horse bid

As part of its Chapter 11 case, Top 100 retailer American Signature Inc. filed a motion to approve its stalking horse bid and bid procedures. The motion filed Nov. 26 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware would approve the stalking horse bid by ASI Purchaser LLC for $147.89 million, split between $83.15 million in cash, $64.7 million in assumed liabilities and $608,000 in additional signage payment. The buyer would acquire intellectual property, real estate, leases (including designation rights), inventory, receivables (excluding credit card receivables), real property interests, tax refunds, security deposits, and claims and causes of action (except those expressly retained), free and clear of liens. An associated stalking horse agency agreement is included with provisions for the liquidation of store inventory.

Hooker Furnishings releases terms of deal with Magnussen Home

Hooker Furnishings Corp. is selling its Pulaski Furniture and Samuel Lawrence Furniture case goods brands to Magnussen Home Furnishings for approximately $4.8 million. Pursuant to the terms of the asset purchase agreement, an estimated purchase price will be determined and paid at closing based upon the net book value of the assets being sold in the transaction. As of the end of Hooker’s fiscal Q3 on Nov. 2, the currently estimated purchase price is approximately $4.8 million, subject to final adjustment to closing values, pursuant to the terms of the asset purchase agreement. Hooker Furnishings also will shed approximately $4.8 million in Home Meridian showroom lease liabilities and related expenses, as Magnussen will assume the lease of HMI’s High Point showroom.

Jewelry & Luxury

Signet Jewelers’ Q3 Sales Up Amid Continued Focus on Lower Price Points

Signet Jewelers Ltd. reported single-digit sales growth in its third quarter, boosted by lower-priced jewelry offerings at its largest banners—Kay, Zales, and Jared. Signet Jewelers CEO J.K. Symancyk said in Q2 that the retailer planned to deliver jewelry priced under $1,000, focusing on lab-grown diamond fashion jewelry and men’s fashion jewelry categories for holiday gifting. “Our balanced diamond assortment strategy, alongside ongoing stabilization in diamond retail prices, is driving growth and expanded average retails in both bridal and fashion,” Symancyk said in a Dec. 2 press release, as the company announced its third-quarter results.

Hugo Boss Reveals New Strategy Alongside Painful Forecast for 2026

Shares in Hugo Boss sank 9.86 percent in trading on December 3rd after the German menswear specialist unveiled a new strategy — one that will entail significant financial pain and have the company returning to growth in around two years. “Following the successes of recent years, we are now deliberately taking a step back to prepare for tomorrow’s growth,” Hugo Boss chief executive officer Daniel Grieder said in a statement. “Our focus in the coming years will be on the ongoing optimization in the areas of brand, distribution, and operations with the clear ambition to transform them from great to excellent.” Hugo Boss now expects revenues to fall by mid- to high-single digits throughout 2026.

Office & Leisure

Gimv joins forces with CNP to accelerate the global expansion of Equine Care Group

European listed private equity investor Gimv is taking an indirect minority stake in Equine Care Group (ECG) from Belgian family-owned investor Compagnie Nationale à Portefeuille (CNP). ECG becomes one of Gimv’s ten largest holdings. CNP will remain the firm’s lead strategic partner.  By joining CNP, Bencis, the founders, managers and the veterinarians, Gimv becomes part of a shareholder group aiming to accelerate ECG’s development into the world’s leading one-stop partner for high-quality equine medicine.  Created in 2021 by merging Dr Tom Mariën, founder of EquiTom, Dr Frederik Bruyninx‘s Ambulatory Care practice, and Bencis, ECG has evolved into a leading European provider of high-quality equine care. It offers equine hospitals, ambulatory veterinary services, reproductive solutions, nutrition and supplement brands and specialised laboratories.

Accel Entertainment acquires Nevada route operator Dynasty Games

Accel Entertainment has expanded its gaming operations in Nevada with the acquisition of route operator Dynasty Games.  The acquisition expands Accel’s Northern Nevada operations with 20 new active locations, comprising approximately 123 electronic gaming terminals, with two additional locations pending regulatory approval.  The route operation assets have been acquired by Accel subsidiary Century Gaming Technologies Nevada and are expected to be accretive to Accel’s 2026 financial results.  At the end of the third quarter of 2025, Accel’s existing Nevada operations serviced 370 locations featuring 2,757 gaming terminals.

Fanatics Pushes Prediction Markets Into the Mainstream With Ambitious New Platform

Fanatics has spent years reshaping how fans interact with sports—first with jerseys, then collectibles, then tickets, and eventually full-blown sports betting. Now the company is stepping into territory that blurs almost every line it has drawn before. With the launch of Fanatics Markets, the company is betting that prediction markets are finally ready to go mainstream.  At its core, the new platform lets people trade on the outcomes of real-world events—sports scores, economic decisions, political shifts, even cultural moments. In practice, it means your hunch about a team’s performance or a Fed announcement suddenly becomes something you can take a financial position on, without needing the background of a Wall Street analyst.  Fanatics bought Paragon Global Markets back in July 2025, a move that barely made headlines at the time. But Paragon’s regulatory status gave Fanatics what it needed: a legally compliant entry point into CFTC-regulated event trading.

Technology & Internet

Meta acquiring AI wearable company Limitless

Meta is acquiring artificial intelligence wearable startup Limitless, the companies said Friday. “We’re excited that Limitless will be joining Meta to help accelerate our work to build AI-enabled wearables,” a Meta spokesperson said in a statement. Limitless makes a small, AI-powered pendant that can record conversations and generate summaries. Limitless CEO Dan Siroker revealed the deal on Friday via a corporate blog post but did not disclose the financial terms. “Meta recently announced a new vision to bring personal superintelligence to everyone and a key part of that vision is building incredible AI-enabled wearables,” Siroker said in the post and an accompanying video. “We share this vision and we’ll be joining Meta to help bring our shared vision to life.”

iPhone 17 will drive record Apple shipments in 2025: IDC

Apple will hit a record level of iPhone shipments this year driven by its latest models and a resurgence in its key market of China, research firm IDC has forecast. The company will ship 247.4 million iPhones in 2025, up just over 6% year-on-year, IDC forecast in a report on Tuesday. That’s more than the 236 million it sold in 2021, when the iPhone 13 was released. Apple’s predicted surge is “thanks to the phenomenal success of its latest iPhone 17 series,” Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC, said in a statement, adding that in China, “massive demand for iPhone 17 has significantly accelerated Apple’s performance.” Apple’s shipments are expected to jump 17% year-on-year in China in the fourth quarter, IDC said, leading the research firm to forecast 3% growth in the market this year versus a previous projection of a 1% decline.

Finance & Economy

November private payrolls unexpectedly fell by 32,000, led by steep small business job cuts, ADP reports

The U.S. labor market slowdown intensified in November as private companies cut 32,000 workers, with small businesses hit the hardest, payrolls processing firm ADP reported on Dec 3rd. With worries intensifying over the domestic jobs picture, ADP said the situation was worse than anticipated. The payroll decline marked a sharp step down from October, which saw an upwardly revised gain of 47,000 positions, and was well below the Dow Jones consensus estimate from economists for an increase of 40,000. Larger businesses, entailing companies with 50 or more employees, actually reported a net gain of 90,000 workers.

Delayed tariff impact starting to hit, could cause companies to reduce headcount in 2026

President Donald Trump’s tariffs, aimed at reshoring American jobs lost to overseas manufacturing, could end up lowering domestic headcount instead, according to recent statements from corporate executives and economic forecasters. With the labor market already on its heels in a no-fire, no-hire climate, concerns are rising that the duties on U.S. imports will raise operating costs and force companies to start paring their employment rolls. For instance, respondents to the Institute for Supply Management’s November survey of factory conditions expressed elevated levels of worry. “We are starting to institute more permanent changes due to the tariff environment,” one transportation equipment executive wrote. “This includes reduction of staff, new guidance to shareholders, and development of additional offshore manufacturing that would have otherwise been for U.S. export.”

Read the full weekly consensus