The Weekly Consensus

The Weekly Consensus

Maeghan Thompson

Story of the Week

TreeHouse Foods buys private label tea business for $205M

TreeHouse Foods is buying the private brand tea business of Harris Freeman & Co (Harris Tea) for about $205 million. The acquisition includes Harris Tea’s manufacturing facilities in Moorestown, New Jersey, and Marietta, Georgia. Approximately 300 Harris employees will join TreeHouse. The purchase by TreeHouse comes as the private-label giant has been buying and selling food and beverage offerings to improve its margins and generate higher growth.

Apparel & Footwear

PVH names new CEO of Americas

Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger parent company PVH Corp. promoted Donald Kohler to CEO of PVH Americas, the company’s CEO Stefan Larsson said in an earnings call on Dec 5th. Kohler was previously president of Calvin Klein North America. In the call, Larsson said now all three of the company’s key regions have a regional CEO. In September, the company hired Fredrik Olsson as its new CEO of EMEA, the region consisting of Europe, the Middle East and Asia. The Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger parent company announced the hire on the same day it reported revenue of $2.3 billion for the third quarter, representing a 5% year-over-year decrease, according to a press release on December 4th.

Lululemon stock rises on profit beat as company boosts full-year outlook

Lululemon reported third quarter results after the closing bell on Dec 5 that beat on both the top and bottom lines, sending shares of the company higher in after-hours trading. Lululemon stock rose over 8% as the company also raised its full-year sales and profit forecasts for 2024. Still, sales growth in North America once again declined as the retailer grapples with concerns over increased competition heading into the critical holiday shopping season. Revenue came in at $2.40 billion, an increase from the $2.20 billion reported in the third quarter of 2023. Analysts polled by Bloomberg were expecting $2.36 billion after the retailer guided to sales between $2.34 billion and $2.37 billion. Earnings beat estimates of $2.75 a share to hit $2.87. This was also ahead of the $2.53 EPS the company reported in the year-ago period.

Facing Nike ‘softness,’ Foot Locker sales fall 1.4%

Noting “softness” from its largest brand partner Nike, Foot Locker on Dec 4th said its third-quarter sales declined 1.4%, per a company press release. Comps, however, were up 2.4% as the retailer continued to refresh some locations and close others. Foot Locker swung to a $33 million loss in the quarter, compared to net income of $28 million last year. The company also lowered its full-year guidance, now expecting sales to be down 1% to 1.5%, as opposed to up 1% to down 1%. Comps should land between 1% and 1.5%, though initial expectations were for comps to grow up to 3%. CEO Mary Dillon said on a call with analysts that the company has made “meaningful” progress on its Lace Up strategy but has been hurt by a weaker consumer that concentrated spending on the back-to-school season and pulled back in September and October.

 

 

Athletic & Sporting Goods

TaylorMade Acquires Putter Craftsman Logan Olson

TaylorMade has added putter craftsman Logan Olson to its team after a number of its players used models from the 27-year-old Californian on tour over the last year.  Olson, who TaylorMade describes as a “generational talent”, designs and manufactures bespoke and small batch ranges of blade putters out of Fortuna, California and will assume the role of Principal Designer of Olson products with TaylorMade.  He first came to prominence this time last year when World No.1 Scottie Scheffler put one of his putters in play during his Hero World Challenge victory.  Signs could point to a mass release of an Olson line for consumers at some point but there are no indications that is coming yet.

Paige Bueckers Becomes the First NIL Athlete to Launch a Nike Player Edition Shoe

Nike athlete Paige Bueckers is used to making history. And this season, she’s adding yet another first to her name, becoming the inaugural NIL athlete to design and launch a Nike Player Edition basketball sneaker.  Paige’s Nike G.T. Hustle 3 is meant to propel her performance during the final season of her illustrious collegiate career, leveraging Nike’s best basketball innovations in a silhouette that maximizes energy return from tip-off to buzzer.

Cosmetics & Pharmacy

Natura &Co Reaches Agreement with Avon Creditors to Drive Financial Restructuring

Natura &Co, the Brazilian cosmetics giant, has struck a pivotal deal with Avon Products Inc.’s unsecured creditors as part of Avon’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy process in the United States. Natura’s acquisition of Avon in 2020 aimed to revitalize the struggling direct-selling icon, but Avon continued to face hurdles in adapting to shifting consumer preferences and digital trends. The bankruptcy filing underscores the competitive pressures within the beauty industry. As part of the deal, Natura has agreed to waive all secured and unsecured claims against Avon, streamlining the restructuring process. This financial commitment reflects Natura’s focus on ensuring Avon’s operational stability during bankruptcy proceedings, while also highlighting the broader challenges faced by Natura itself. Natura reported a net loss of R$7 billion in the third quarter of 2024, a stark reversal from the previous year’s profits.

Mao Geping Cosmetics gears up for HK$2.3 billion IPO

Mao Geping Cosmetics has passed its initial listing hearing and is hoping to raise some HK$2.3 billion in a planned initial public offering on Hong Kong’s stock exchange. According to a report published by The Standard, the brand has abandoned attempts to list in Shanghai after four failed tries to go public, starting in 2016. The company reported profits of CNY664 million in 2023, with revenue surging 83 percent to CNY2.89 billion. Analysts have put Mao Geping’s business model, product range and R&D spend under the microscope since its first attempt to list, The Standard reports. The report raised some concerns, namely that R&D expenses are less than 1 percent of revenue and its products are mostly produced by contract manufacturers.

Bath & Body Works Exceeds Q3 Expectations and Raises Fiscal Year Guidance

Bath & Body Works reported a 3% increase in net sales for Q3 2024, reaching US$1.6 billion, and earnings per diluted share of US$ 0.49, exceeding guidance. For the quarter ended November 2, 2024, Bath & Body Works achieved $1.6 billion in net sales, up from US$1.56 billion the prior year. Earnings per diluted share stood at $0.49, compared to US$ 0.52 in Q3 2023. Adjusted earnings for Q3 2023 were US$ 0.48, reflecting the exclusion of a one-time US$12 million gain from debt extinguishment CEO Gina Boswell highlighted the company’s focus on innovation in core product categories, strategic collaborations, and digital marketing initiatives as key growth drivers. Bath & Body Works also benefited from its U.S.-based supply chain, allowing for agility in a challenging retail environment.

Covalo acquires Italy’s leading platform for the cosmetics industry

Founded in 2021, Covalo facilitates connections between brands and suppliers of ingredients, packaging, and services essential for product development. The company today enables more than 6000 brands in the cosmetics industry including L’Oréal, Coty, and Lush. The Swiss startup has acquired Cosmetitrovo, Italy’s leading platform as part of its regionalization strategy to provide tailored solutions. Following the acquisition, Covalo will integrate Cosmetitrovo’s network and expertise into its platform, strengthening its market position worldwide and enhancing its capabilities to further drive innovation, transparency, and sustainability in the global consumer goods industry.

 

Discounters & Department Stores

Five Below taps Forever 21 exec as CEO

Five Below on Wednesday announced the appointment of Winnie Park as chief executive officer, effective Dec. 16. Park will also become a member of the company’s board of directors. Most recently Park was the chief executive of fast-fashion retailer Forever 21, a position she held with the company since 2022. Park, whose retail executive career spans over three decades, was also previously the CEO of Paper Source. “I’m a huge fan of the Five Below brand and its unique ability to connect with and empower teens and pre-teens through an amazing assortment of extreme-value items in a fun shopping environment,” Park said in a statement. “There is enormous opportunity to build on the exciting initiatives that are already underway as we elevate our product, value and experience.”

 

Court blocks Target’s attempt to move, dismiss DEI-related shareholder suit

The U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida on Wednesday blocked Target’s motion to dismiss a conservative advocacy group’s lawsuit regarding the retailer’s DEI practices. The court also denied the corporation’s request to move the case to Minnesota, where it is headquartered. America First Legal filed the lawsuit, Craig v. Target Corp., against Target and its board of directors in August 2023, claiming the board had misled investors about the financial risks of its DEI and ESG practices. Specifically, the lawsuit alleged that Target’s 2023 Pride campaign tanked the brand’s profits and that Target failed to warn of the risk of “adverse reactions.”

Off-price retailers aren’t too worried about tariffs

Off-price retailers have yet another advantage over their competition: a measure of protection against protectionism. Tariffs were among Donald Trump’s favorite ideas during his presidential campaign and he has continued to float various levies on imports since his electoral victory last month. As a result, chatter about the effect of tariffs on retail is on the rise, though the topic is rife with uncertainty. “Will Trump really put in place 60% tariffs on goods coming in from China and 10% across-the-board tariffs on other trading partners? Or will a watered-down version be the more likely outcome?” Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Seery Grein said in a Monday research note. “Even in the case of milder tariffs, history teaches us to expect immediate, tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs. On that basis, the sooner a business can procure the needed inputs the less costly they will be, at least on a very basic level.”

Shrink down at Dollar General after backing away from self-checkout

Dollar General Thursday said Q3 net sales rose 5% year over year to $10.2 billion as comparable sales rose 1.3%. Inventory declined 7% on a per-store basis. Net income fell nearly 29% to $196.5 million. Gross margin contracted by 18 basis points to 28.8%, due to markdowns, inventory damages and higher consumables sales, partly offset by higher markups, lower shrink and lower inventory costs. The shrink improvement contributed 29 basis points and beat the retailer’s expectations, Chief Financial Officer Kelly Dilts told analysts. Hurricanes, which forced temporary store closures, took a toll in the period and into Q4, leading Dollar General to lower its full-year guidance. The retailer now expects net sales to rise about 4.8% to 5.1%, down from about 4.7% to 5.3%, with comps up about 1.1% to 1.4%, compared to its previous expectation for 1% to 1.6%.

 

 

Emerging Consumer Companies

Growl raises $4.75M to launch at-home boxing and fitness platform

Connected fitness startup Growl announced it has raised $4.75M and also unveiled its first product – a boxing bag transformed into a personal, at-home boxing and fitness coach. The product goes beyond traditional fitness devices, offering an immersive, gamified, and AI-enabled experience designed for the whole family. The funding was led by Skip Capital, with participation from with Kima Ventures, Teampact Ventures, and former UFC Heavyweight Champion Ciryl Gane.

Khloud, snack brand led by Khloé Kardashian and Kris Jenner, seeking to raise $10 million

Khloé Kardashian and Kris Jenner are looking to raise $10 million for a new business called Khloud, according to an SEC filing. Per the filing, which was listed on Tuesday, the company started raising last month and has already raised $4.49 million. Trademark filings show that earlier this year, trademarks affiliated with Khloud were filed to cover popcorn, granola, and other types of snacks, with one also filed to cover protein supplements.

Planet A Foods Raises $30M to Scale Cocoa-Free Chocolate Alternative with 80% Less Carbon Footprint

Planet A Foods, a food technology company specializing in sustainable ingredients, has raised $30 million in a Series B funding round. The financing will support the industrial-scale production of ChoViva, a cocoa-free chocolate alternative, as well as expand the company’s international presence. The company aims to further its mission of providing sustainable alternatives for the food industry. Following a successful Series A raise at the beginning of 2024, the Series B funding, co-led by Burda Principal Investments and Zintinus with participation from Cherry Ventures, World Fund, and Bayern Kapital, will enable Planet A Foods to increase its production capacity from 2,000 tons to 15,000 tons annually.

 

 

Food & Beverage

The Campbell’s Company names Mick Beekhuizen as CEO

The Campbell’s Company said Mick Beekhuizen will succeed Mark Clouse as president and CEO on Feb. 1, 2025. Beekhuizen will become the 15th CEO in the company’s 155-year history. He joined Campbell’s in September 2019 as CFO and since 2022 has served as president of the company’s $5.3 billion meals and beverages division. Clouse is resigning to join the NFL’s Washington Commanders as the team’s president.

Stoli vodka owners file for bankruptcy following cyberattack

Stoli Group USA and Kentucky Owl, which produce Stoli vodka, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in a Dallas federal court last week. The announcement follows a cyberattack they faced earlier this year. In the legal filings, the companies said the protection would help them pay off a combined $84 million in debts. The bankruptcy news also comes as some Gen Z consumers abandon traditional spirits like vodka as they limit their alcohol consumption or turn to trendier ready-to-drink products. The companies are American subsidiaries of Stoli Group. The vodka brand, which was first sold in the U.S. in the 1970s, has experienced a complex geopolitical history since its founding.

Constellation Brands selling Svedka vodka to Sazerac

Constellation Brands will sell its Svedka vodka brand to Sazerac, the maker of Fireball and Southern Comfort. Financial details were not disclosed, but the deal is expected to be finalized in the coming months. The Corona brewer said the decision follows the divestiture in recent years of most of its popular wine and spirits brands as it focuses on higher-end wine and craft spirits. Facing a decline in alcohol consumption, spirits makers are choosing to sell some of their lower-priced offerings while holding on to faster-growing premium brands.

 

 

Grocery & Restaurants

Chipotle takes a 2% systemwide pricing increase to offset inflation

Chipotle has raised its menu prices by 2% nationwide, marking the chain’s first increase since October 2023. “For the first time in over a year, we have taken a modest price increase of approximately 2% nationally to offset inflation,” Chipotle chief corporate affairs officer Laurie Schalow confirmed in an email to Nation’s Restaurant News. Prior to this increase, the company raised prices twice in 2022 and once in 2021. The exception is in California, where the company raised prices by about 6% to 7% in April to offset the state’s AB 1228 law that went into effect raising quick-service wages to $20 an hour, or by about 20%. During the company’s third-quarter earnings call in late October, chief financial officer Adam Rymer said the cost of sales was 30.6% – an increase of about 90 basis points versus last year. He said the October 2023 price increase was “more than offset by inflation across several menu items,” including avocados and dairy, as well as “higher usage ensuring generous portions.”

Kroger tops sales estimates on higher demand for fresh, cheaper groceries

Kroger topped quarterly same-store sales expectations on Thursday, benefiting from a surge in customers shopping for its lower priced and freshly sourced groceries at its stores and online. The U.S. grocer, which competes with retail giants such as Walmart and Amazon.com, has been ramping up its e-commerce investments to keep pace with customers who prefer shopping online. Kroger’s third-quarter identical sales, excluding fuel, rose 2.3%, beating expectations of 1.77% rise, according to data compiled by LSEG, while its adjusted earnings per share of 98 cents was in line with the estimates. But Kroger’s shares slipped in choppy trading as the supermarket chain narrowed its annual forecasts, saying annualized sales will be about $3 billion lower due to the sale of its specialty pharmacy unit. Separately, CEO Rodney McMullen said Kroger is committed to closing its $25 billion mega merger with Albertsons. The companies are waiting for a decision following the anti-trust trial in September where the U.S. Federal Trade Commission and several states opposed the deal.

Home & Road

Kirkland’s extends comp store sales growth, eyes benefits of Beyond partnership

Despite the impact of hurricanes in its stores’ trading areas, specialty home retailer Kirkland’s saw comparable store sales rise by 1.6% for the third quarter, marking its fourth consecutive quarter of positive comp store sales growth. Net sales, meanwhile, fell to $114.4 million for the quarter from $116.4 in the prior year quarter. Overall comparable sales were off by 3%, including an e-commerce decline of nearly 15% for the quarter. E-commerce accounted for 24% of total sales vs. 28% in the same quarter a year ago. Kirkland’s attributed the sales drop to a decrease in the consolidated average ticket and e-commerce conversion, which was partially offset by an increase in consolidated traffic and store conversion. Hurricanes Helene and Milton had about a 1% impact on sales across stores. “The third quarter marked our fourth consecutive quarter of positive comparable store sales growth and significant year-over-year improvement in adjusted EBITDA,” said Amy Sullivan, CEO. She cited the company’s initiatives on “re-engaging our core customer, refocusing our product assortment and strengthening our omni-channel capabilities” for the improvements.

Customer bankruptcy, severance charges push Hooker’s loss in Q3

Hooker Furnishings reported consolidated net sales of $104.4 million in the third quarter ended Oct. 27, a decrease of $12.5 million, or 10.7%, from last year. It also reported an operating loss of $7.3 million, marking its third quarterly loss in a row. The company attributed ongoing low demand as a reason for the loss, as well as $7.5 million in charges – which came from $3.1 million in severance (from 44 layoffs announced last quarter), $2.4 million from the bankruptcy of a significant customer and $2 million in trade-name impairment charges related to its HMI segment. For the first nine months of the year, sales were $293 million, a 12.9% decline from last year. This was attributed to “persistent low demand affecting the home furnishings industry” and the absence of $11 million in liquidation sales from the unprofitable ACH product line which Hooker exited last year. Hooker saw a $15.4 million operating loss for the period. Still, there are positives. The company says it should exceed its goal of saving $10 million in annual costs in 2026; Home Meridian reported its highest ever gross margin of 20.5%; and macro-economic conditions are trending positively.

Culp’s Q2 for fiscal 2025 feels impact of economic headwinds

Culp Inc.’s earnings results continue to reflect economic headwinds for the second quarter ended Oct. 27. Net sales for the period were $55.7 million, down 5.2% compared with the 2023 second quarter. Mattress fabric sales were down 4.2% year over year, and upholstery fabrics sales were down 6.4% for the period. Operating loss for the period more than doubled compared with the year-ago period: a loss of $5.4 million, including a $2.8 million restructuring expense and related charges, compared with a loss of $2.2 million last year. Culp’s net loss for the period was $5.6 million, or 45 cents per diluted share, compared with a net loss of $2.4 million, or 19 cents per diluted share in the 2023 quarter. President and CEO Iv Culp noted the weakened industry demand conditions and accelerated softness in the company’s residential upholstery fabrics business, resulting in lower-than-expected sales. However, he said the company is outperforming the industry average.

Dunes Point Capital acquires majority interest in Kravet

Home furnishings resource Kravet has announced that Dunes Point Capital (DPC) has acquired a majority stake in the company. The Kravet family will continue to lead the business as it has for five generations and will maintain a significant ownership position. “We are excited to announce this alignment with DPC,” said CEO Cary Kravet. “DPC’s financial and operational resources and expertise, combined with our team’s talent and leadership, will enable us to accelerate our growth and acquisition plans, while we continue to obsessively focus on providing our customers with the highest quality products and services.” Founded in 1918, Kravet has evolved from a small fabric house into a global leader in to-the-trade home furnishings, offering fabric, furniture, wallcoverings, trimmings and carpets. The company is comprised of five core bands and also represents several European brands. DPC, a private -investment firm focusing on industrial and business services sectors, targets companies with enterprise values of up to $1 billion. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Jewelry & Luxury

Signet Jewelers’ Q3 Sales Slide Amid Slow Engagement Ring Sales, Tech Issues

Signet Jewelers Ltd. sales slipped in the third quarter as its engagement ring sales remained stalled and digital banners James Allen and Blue Nile struggled with technical issues. The jewelry giant, which is the parent company of several large jewelry store chains including Zales, Jared, and Kay Jewelers, named a new CEO last month, former PetSmart CEO J .K. Symancyk. “After a month at Signet, I’m energized by our opportunity to accelerate growth. Our strong brands, deep consumer focus, and talented team provide a powerful foundation to strategically evolve and transform our business,” Symancyk said on his first Signet earnings call Thursday morning.

LVMH invests in Scandinavian luggage brand Db

Norwegian accessories upstart Db has quietly been reshaping how adventurers and urban nomads perceive luggage. This week, the brand secured a minority investment from LVMH Luxury Ventures. Founded in 2012 by entrepreneur Truls Brataas and professional free-skier Jon Olsson, Db represents a new breed of design-driven equipment brands that transcend traditional market boundaries. What began as a passion project has evolved into a serious contender in the global travel accessories market, catching the discerning eye of luxury’s most influential investment arm. The investment is more than a simple cash injection. For Db, it represents a path to strategic growth – leveraging LVMH’s global network to translate a cult Scandinavian brand into an international powerhouse.

Former State Department Official Joins De Beers

Pamela Fierst-Walsh, formerly the U.S. State Department’s point person on conflict diamonds, has joined De Beers Group as vice president of government affairs for North America, she announced on LinkedIn. Fierst-Walsh worked in the State Department for 17 years, serving as senior adviser on conflict and critical minerals and U.S. representative to the Kimberley Process from 2017 to 2021. After leaving State, she became vice president of traceability for PVH Corp., parent company of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger. At De Beers, Fierst-Walsh will be part of the new government affairs team headed by Emma Wade-Smith, OBE, the former consul general for the U.K. embassy in Washington, D.C., who was hired by De Beers in February.

Office & Leisure

Chewy raises full-year guidance as it beats Q3 expectations

Chewy reported third-quarter net sales grew nearly 5% year over year to $2.9 billion, exceeding the high end of its guidance for the quarter. The online pet retailer moved into the black during the quarter, reporting an operating income of $25.6 million, from a loss of $9.7 million in the year-ago period, and a $3.9 million net income, from a $35.4 million loss, according to a press release. Chewy’s active customer base fell slightly year over year to 20.2 million, but its net sales per active customer increased 4.2% to $567.

Ashford Hospitality Trust to offload Boston hotel for $123M

Ashford Hospitality Trust signed a definitive agreement to sell the 315-room Courtyard Boston Downtown for $123 million to an undisclosed buyer, the real estate investment trust announced. The sale, valued at $390,500 per key, is expected to be completed next month. The hotel deal is one of several the REIT has underway in the Boston market, as it offloads properties to pay off strategic financing. The Boston transaction comes as hotel investment, particularly in urban markets, is slated to ramp up amid a cooling interest rate environment.

Technology & Internet

TikTok ban: Court upholds law ordering ByteDance to divest app

A federal appeals court on Friday cited national security concerns as it upheld a law requiring China-based ByteDance to sell the popular social media app TikTok next month or face an effective ban in the United States. The unanimous ruling by a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C., rejected TikTok’s argument that the law is unconstitutional and violates the First Amendment rights of the 170 million Americans who use the app. TikTok said later Friday that it will ask the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn the appeals court decision. If ByteDance fails to sell TikTok by Jan. 19, the law would require app store companies, such as Apple and Google, and internet hosting providers to stop supporting TikTok, which would effectively ban the app.

 

Finance & Economy

Bitcoin has surpassed the $100,000 mark as the post-election rally continues

Bitcoin topped $100,000 for the first time this week as a massive rally in the world’s most popular cryptocurrency, largely accelerated by the election of Donald Trump, rolls on. The cryptocurrency officially rose to six figures on Dec. 4th, just hours after the president-elect said he intends to nominate cryptocurrency advocate Paul Atkins to be the next chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Bitcoin has soared since Trump won the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5. The asset climbed from $69,374 on Election Day, hitting as high as $103,713 on Dec. 4th, according to CoinDesk. And the latest all-time high arrives just two years after bitcoin dropped below $17,000 following the collapse of crypto exchange FTX.

Payrolls increased 227,000 in November, more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.2%

Job creation in November rebounded from a near-standstill the prior month as the effects of a significant labor strike and violent storms in the Southeast receded, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 for the month, compared with an upwardly revised 36,000 in October and the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 214,000. September’s payroll count also was revised upward, to 255,000, up 32,000 from the prior estimate. October’s number was held back by impacts from Hurricane Milton and the Boeing strike. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.2%, as expected. The jobless figure rose as the labor force participation rate nudged lower and the labor force itself declined. A broader measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons moved slightly higher to 7.8%.

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