The Weekly Consensus

The Weekly Consensus

Maeghan Thompson

Story of the Week

Trump announces ‘massive’ trade deal with Japan, setting tariffs at 15%

President Donald Trump announced a “massive” deal with Japan that includes “reciprocal” tariffs of 15% on the country’s exports to the U.S., with auto duties reportedly being lowered to that level as well. In a post on Truth Social, Trump called the agreement “perhaps the largest Deal ever made,” while adding that Japan would invest $550 billion in the United States and the U.S. would “receive 90% of the Profits.” Trump said that Japan will “open their Country to Trade, including Cars and Trucks, Rice and certain other Agricultural Products, and other things.” The U.S. President added that the deal would create “Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs.” Following Trump’s post, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that auto tariffs on Tokyo will be lowered to 15% — from the current 25% that is levied across countries — as part of the deal, Reuters reported. Auto exports to the U.S. are a cornerstone of Japan’s economy, making up 28.3% of all shipments in 2024, according to customs data.

Apparel & Footwear

Skechers Secures Legal Win to Move Forward on Acquisition

A California federal district court judge in Los Angeles has ruled against a pension plan investor’s bid for a preliminary injunction to delay the closing of the planned acquisition of Skechers by 3G Capital. The $9 billion go-private deal with Brazilian private-equity firm 3G Capital is the biggest shoe buyout in history, and the footwear company had already received antitrust clearance from the Federal Trade Commission. But the Key West Police Officers & Firefighters Retirement Plan (Key West) had an issue with the transaction and wanted to delay its closing on the grounds that it didn’t want to be forced to choose between two different shareholder elections without more information. The deal structure has one election at $63 a share and the other at $57 a share in cash, and one unlisted, non-transferable equity unit in a newly formed entity that will become the parent of Skechers upon the closing of the transaction. Key West filed its lawsuit in May and a month later sought a preliminary injunction.

Levi’s boosts inventory to navigate tariff, shipping disruptions

Levi Strauss & Co. reported a 15% increase in inventory costs at the end of Q2 as it navigated global supply chain upheavals, such as ongoing tariff uncertainty and disruptions in the Red Sea, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial and Growth Officer Harmit Singh said on a July 10 earnings call. The apparel maker is also utilizing promotion optimization, targeted pricing actions, vendor negotiations, and supply chain diversification as tariff mitigation initiatives, according to Singh. “Looking beyond ’25, should tariffs remain in place at these levels, given our transformation initiatives, which provide us multiple levers, we believe we are better positioned than most to manage through this uncertainty,” Singh said.

River Island at risk of collapse if landlords fail to back restructuring plan

River Island is at risk of collapsing into administration within weeks if it fails to secure approval for a radical restructuring plan. The high street fashion chain also needs to secure further funding later this year to preserve its future, according to documents shared with creditors. The London-based company has laid out a major rescue plan which will see it shut 33 stores and pay reduced rents on a further 71 shops. Just last month, the retailer permanently closed its store on Dublin’s Henry Street. Landlords are being asked to cut rents for three years and potentially stop payments completely on some sites in a bid to stem losses. The plan, which will also see it write off parts of its heavy debt pile, will need court approval next month. River Island will need the backing of 75% of the group’s creditors, predominantly landlords, at a hearing on August 7. The company said talks with creditors have been positive and it expects to gain approval for the restructuring plan.

Athletic & Sporting Goods

TaylorMade sale takes new turn as F&F hires Goldman for bid

F&F Holdings Co., a South Korean fashion retailer and the largest strategic investor in TaylorMade, has entered a head-to-head showdown with Centroid Investment Partners, with F&F hiring Goldman Sachs to advise on its bid for the golf club and apparel maker.  The move could stall the Seoul-based private equity firm’s attempt to exit the golf company, which it acquired for $1.7 billion or 1.8 trillion won in 2021 with the backing of F&F.  F&F signed an advisory deal with Goldman on its acquisition bid for TaylorMade, according to investment banking sources.  The advisory deal followed Centroid’s recent announcement of plans to divest the US company by appointing JPMorgan and Jeffries as its sale managers.  However, F&F protested the sale plan, saying it failed to win its consent and therefore violated its contract with Centroid.  For the $1.7 billion acquisition of TaylorMade, F&F contributed 550 billion won ($400 million), making it the golf brand’s largest strategic investor.

Backcountry Acquires Value Retailer Level Nine Sports

Outdoor gear retailer Backcountry has acquired Utah-based Level Nine Sports, which will combine Backcountry’s digital expertise with Level Nine’s specialized and cost-conscious product portfolio, according to a news release.  Both Level Nine Sports Utah retail locations, which are in Millcreek and Ogden, will remain open with ongoing support from Backcountry. Level Nine’s employees will join Backcountry’s Gearhead team and will also receive increased vendor training, and the value retailer’s website has also been refreshed with a new look and additional product offerings.  Backcountry has a relatively new owner itself. It was acquired by CSC Generation Enterprise in Sept. 2024. CSC Generation Enterprise also owns Sur La Table, One Kings Lane, Touch of Modern, and DirectBuy.

Echelon Acquires Fortë As It Grows B2B & Enterprise Fitness Arm

Echelon Fitness has acquired Fortë, a B2B fitness streaming platform, as it expands into the commercial SaaS market and rebrands the division as Elevate by Echelon.  The deal comes as Echelon builds momentum beyond at-home fitness. Over the past year, the connected fitness equipment company has expanded its portfolio to include telehealth services through ActiveMD, recovery tools through Echelon Recovery, personalized fitness via Echelon AI and one-on-one live personal training with Echelon Coach.  Founded in 2015 and backed by the LA Dodgers, Billie Jean King Enterprises, and Elysian Park, Fortë provides hardware and software for gyms, boutique studios, influencers and sports organizations to build branded live and on-demand fitness content and has grown to more than 457,000 users across 39 countries.

Cosmetics & Pharmacy

Advent to acquire majority stake in Reckitt’s Essential Home portfolio

Advent, a leading global private equity investor, announced that it has reached an agreement to invest in Reckitt’s Essential Home portfolio (“Essential Home”), whereby Advent will acquire a 70% stake to facilitate the company’s accelerated growth and innovation over the years to come as a standalone business. The carve-out of Essential Home will create a dedicated global home care platform with an iconic portfolio of leading brands – including Air Wick, Calgon, Woolite, Cillit Bang, and SBP – that are widely known and trusted by consumers worldwide. Essential Home’s brands generate ~US$2.6bn net revenue across more than 70 markets, and fulfil consumer needs in key areas of everyday life. The transaction values Essential Home at an enterprise value of up to US$4.8 billion (including up to US$1.3 billion of contingent and deferred consideration). As part of the transaction, Reckitt will continue to support Essential Home by retaining a significant minority interest of 30%, thereby affirming the company’s strong value creation prospects.

Waldencast Acquires Novaestiq Corp. and U.S. Rights to Saypha

Waldencast plc, a global multi-brand beauty and wellness platform, announced that it has acquired Novaestiq Corp., a growth-oriented aesthetic and medical dermatological innovations company, as well as the U.S. rights to the Saypha line of hyaluronic acid (HA) injectable gels. The strategic acquisition expands Obagi Medical’s offerings beyond U.S. medical-grade skincare, a market projected to be $2.2 billion by 2029, into the growing U.S. dermal filler market, projected to reach $2 billion in market size by 2029, effectively doubling its addressable market. The move marks a pivotal step in positioning Obagi Medical as an industry leader in integrated skincare and aesthetic solutions. “We are excited to further diversify Obagi Medical’s portfolio of medical-grade skincare with consumer centric, in-office injectable procedures through the introduction of the Obagi Medical Saypha® ChIQ™ and MagIQ™ lines of injectable HA gels,” said Michel Brousset, Co-Founder and CEO of Waldencast.

Perrigo Announces Agreement to Divest Dermacosmetics Business for up to €327 Million

Perrigo Company plc, a leading global provider of Consumer Self-Care Products, announced it has signed an agreement with Kairos Bidco AB, an investment vehicle managed by KKR, a leading global investment firm, to sell the Company’s Dermacosmetics branded business for up to €327 million, including €300 million in upfront cash and up to an additional €27 million contingent on the achievement of net sales milestones over the next three years. This transaction advances the Company’s Three-S plan to Stabilize, Streamline and Strengthen the organization, honing its strategic focus to invest in its ‘high-grow’, high-return opportunities. Trusted brands within this proposed transaction include ACO, Biodermal, Emolium and Iwostin. “This transaction marks another significant milestone in the execution of our ‘Three-S’ plan,” said Patrick Lockwood-Taylor, President and Chief Executive Officer.

TSG Consumer to Acquire PHLUR

TSG Consumer, a leading private equity firm specializing in consumer brands, announced it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire PHLUR, a modern fragrance brand recognized for its emotion-led storytelling and accessible positioning. Chriselle Lim, Creative Director, will continue in her role and retain a meaningful stake alongside Ben Bennett’s The Center, a renowned beauty accelerator that partnered with PHLUR in 2021. Prelude Growth Partners will exit its investment in PHLUR as part of the transaction. PHLUR has built a loyal community through sophisticated, sensorially rich fragrances crafted in collaboration with master perfumers. Known for bestsellers like Vanilla Skin, Heavy Cream, and Missing Person, the brand has scaled rapidly through PHLUR.com and retail partners including Sephora, Amazon, and Space NK.

Discounters & Department Stores

Walmart cuts market coordinator role

Furthering its efforts to streamline company structures, Walmart is eliminating its market coordinator role, according to an internal email from Walmart U.S. Executive Vice President of Store Operations Cedric Clark. The mass retailer is also cutting some academy coach and academy coordinator positions at certain locations as part of a larger restructure to Walmart Academy (which is the company’s internal training and development program), per the email shared with Retail Dive. The retailer did not disclose how many employees were impacted, but market coordinators and academy coaches “will be guaranteed store-level Coach roles in the local area,” per Clark’s email. Academy coordinators, however, are encouraged to apply for other store roles if they wish.

Nordstrom Rack to Open Five New Locations Across Five States in 2026

Nordstrom Inc. plans to open five Nordstrom Rack locations in 2026 in Massachusetts, Ohio, Virginia, Louisiana and New Jersey. In Massachusetts, Nordstrom Rack is opening a 23,700-square-foot store in Mansfield at Mansfield Crossing in fall 2026. The company currently operates two Nordstrom stores and seven Nordstrom Rack stores in the state. In Ohio, a 23,800-square-foot store will open in Canton in fall 2026 at The Venue at Belden in fall 2026. The company currently operates three Nordstrom stores and eight Nordstrom Rack stores in Ohio. In Virginia, a 25,000-square-foot store will open in Williamsburg at Settlers Market in fall 2026. The company currently operates two Nordstrom stores and seven Nordstrom Rack stores in Virginia. In Louisiana, Nordstrom Rack will open a 27,000-square-foot store in Elmwood at Elmwood Center, the state’s largest open-air shopping center, in spring 2026. The company currently has three Nordstrom Rack stores in Louisiana. In New Jersey, a 24,500-square-foot store will open in Deptford at the Deptford Town Center in fall 2026.

Emerging Consumer Companies

Generous Brands to Acquire Health-Ade Kombucha

Generous Brands, a Butterfly portfolio company and a leader in premium refrigerated beverages offering the Bolthouse Farms, Evolution Fresh and SAMBAZON brands, announced it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Health-Ade, a fast-growing leader and innovator in kombucha tea beverages, from private equity firms First Bev and Manna Tree Partners, who will also continue on as minority shareholders in Generous Brands. Since its founding in 2012, Health-Ade has evolved from selling its flagship kombucha at local farmers’ markets into what is now a top-selling functional beverage brand in the U.S., with retail sales approaching $250 million annually and products in 65,000 outlets nationwide, spanning all major retail channels.

Forerunner leads $30 million round in collectibles marketplace Courtyard

New York City-based Courtyard—has raised a $30 million Series A to double down on growth. Forerunner Ventures is leading the round, joined by the company’s existing investors NEA and Y Combinator. Founded in 2021 by Nicolas le Jeune, who previously worked at YouTube, and Paulin Andurand, a former Apple software engineer, Courtyard markets itself through its website as selling “mystery packs” of cards and comic books via a digital vending machine. The mystery packs have been a hit. In January of 2024, Courtyard was selling about $50,000 of merchandise a month. Today—just a year and a half later—le Jeune says the company is selling $50 million a month.

Boulevard Raises US$80 Million as Medspa Demand Reshapes Beauty Tech Landscape

Scheduling and payments software provider Boulevard has raised US$80 million in Series D funding, bringing its valuation to nearly US$800 million as demand surges for medspa services including Botox and GLP-1-based weight loss treatments. Founded in 2016 to streamline salon bookings, Boulevard has expanded its software offering across beauty and wellness sectors, with recent growth driven by the rise of medical aesthetic clinics. The company reports that medspas—offering services such as fillers, laser treatments, and weight management prescriptions—now make up a significant portion of its client base. The funding reflects a wider shift in the beauty sector as traditional salon services converge with medical aesthetics. Demand for Botox, fillers, and GLP-1 drugs has created a new operational model for beauty businesses—one that sits outside traditional healthcare and insurance billing systems. Software platforms like Boulevard are positioning themselves as infrastructure providers for this space.

Food & Beverage

Coca-Cola to sell cane sugar version of its signature cola in US

Coca-Cola plans to launch a version of its namesake soda this fall made with U.S. cane sugar. Coke with sugar will not replace most Coke that is made with high fructose corn syrup. The beverage giant said the cola “is designed to complement the company’s strong core portfolio and offer more choices across occasions and preferences.” The news comes after President Donald Trump said Coca-Cola agreed to use cane sugar in its signature soda in the U.S. High-fructose corn syrup has been previously criticized by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as “a formula for making you obese and diabetic.” After peaking in 1999, soft drink consumption has fallen every year as people become more health-conscious and prices increase, according to IBISWorld. Consumers are forecast to drink 42 gallons of soft drinks this year, down from nearly 50 gallons at its peak. The decline has prompted soda makers to look for ways to have their core brands appeal to more consumers.

Vilore Foods Expands Portfolio with Acquisition of Tia Lupita Foods

Vilore Foods, a trusted partner in the U.S. for distributing and growing culturally connected and emerging brands such as La Costeña, Jumex, Totis, announced the acquisition of popular Mexican food brand Tia Lupita Foods. The acquisition marks a strategic step in expanding Vilore Foods’ portfolio of authentic, beloved brands. Vilore Foods’ acquisition of Tia Lupita Foods reflects the company’s continued commitment to supporting culturally connected and emerging brands that celebrate heritage and flavor. Known for its bold, authentic Mexican flavors and better-for-you, simple ingredients, Tia Lupita Foods perfectly aligns with Vilore Foods’ mission to bring culturally rich products to modern consumers. The acquisition also marks Vilore Foods’ official entry into the natural foods space, expanding its portfolio with Tia Lupita Foods’ distinct offerings of gluten-free, non-GMO and no preservative products.

Grupo Bimbo to invest $2 billion in Mexico

Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV plans to invest more than $2 billion in operations and sustainability across Mexico from 2025 to 2028 through President Claudia Scheinbaum’s “Plan Mexico” economic development strategy. In announcing Grupo Bimbo’s investment at a press conference on July 17, Scheinbaum said the Mexico City-based bread and baked foods giant would create over 2,000 direct jobs and 10,800 indirect jobs. Plans call for the funds to be allocated to projects in the states of Baja California, Yucatán, Nuevo León, Querétaro Puebla and Mexico, as well as in Mexico City. Grupo Bimbo is investing the funds to boost productivity and upgrade technology at its manufacturing plants, modernize its fleet of electric delivery vehicles, and promote a circular economy via sustainable packaging and continued work with Mexican farmers, José Manuel González Guzmán, president and general director of Bimbo Mexico, said at the press event.

Grocery & Restaurants

Chipotle Stock Tumbles 9% After Chain Cuts Same-Store-Sales Forecast

Chipotle Mexican Grill on Wednesday cut its forecast for same-store sales growth this year after traffic declined for a second straight quarter. The burrito chain now anticipates flat same-store sales growth for 2025, down from its prior projection of a low-single-digit percentage increase. Chipotle trimmed its same-store sales outlook for the second consecutive quarter. But the company said sales trends are turning around. Starting in June, customers have been returning to Chipotle restaurants, thanks to its summer promotions and the launch of its Adobo Ranch dip, CEO Scott Boatwright said. Chipotle’s net sales rose 3% to $3.06 billion, thanks to its new restaurants. But the company’s same-store sales shrank 4%, steeper than last quarter’s decline of 0.4% and StreetAccount estimates of a 2.9% decrease for the second quarter. Average check increased roughly 1%, partially offsetting traffic declines of 4.9%. During the company’s first-quarter earnings call, Boatwright said diners’ concerns about the economy led them to skip restaurant visits and save their money instead.

Friendly’s parent company Brix Holdings acquired by franchisee

Brix Holdings — the 250-unit parent company to Friendly’s Restaurants, Clean Juice, Red Mango, and Orange Leaf — has been acquired by Legacy Brands International, an investment group managed by multi-unit Friendly’s franchisee, Amol Kohli. As part of the transaction, which was finalized by the now-former owner, Jamco Interests, for an undisclosed sum, Brix will remain headquartered in Dallas and will continue to be led by the existing leadership team, including CEO Sherif Mityas. Kohli will continue to manage his 30 franchised locations and will join the Brix board as chairman. Following the ownership transition, Kohli will not only lead Brix in its “better for you” mission but also seek further brands to acquire. Additionally, he will focus on expanding Friendly’s into Southeast and Southwest markets like Georgia, the Carolinas, and Texas, while increasing brand awareness.

Home & Road

HNI grows earnings in Q2 as residential, office furnishings show strength

HNI Corp. reported strong earnings and revenue growth in the second quarter of 2025, driven by broad-based volume gains and improved profitability in both its workplace and residential furnishings segments. The company posted net sales of $667.1 million, up 7% from the prior year, and net income of $48.2 million, with diluted earnings per share rising to $1.02 on a GAAP basis, up 36% year-over-year. Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share increased 41% to $1.11, reflecting the benefit of synergies from HNI’s 2023 acquisition of Kimball International (KII) and efficiencies from its Mexico facility ramp-up. The company raised its full-year earnings outlook modestly and now expects continued growth through 2026. The workplace furnishings segment, which includes HNI’s commercial office furniture brands, was the primary engine of growth during the quarter. Net sales for the segment rose 7.4% year-over-year to $516 million, or 8.5% on an organic basis.

‘Choppy demand’ impacts Sherwin-Williams’ second quarter

While consolidated net sales saw a bit of an increase for paint and coating supplier Sherwin-Williams Co., expenses were outpacing them in what the company’s CEO called a choppy demand environment. Consolidated net sales were $6.31 billion for the second quarter ended June 30, up 0.7% over the year-ago quarter. Among the company segments, the Performance Coatings Group showed a 5.3% decline in net sales for the period, dropping to $1,801.1 million compared with $1,806.4 million last year. PCG profit was off even more, down 18.7% to $245.1 million for the quarter. In its summary statement, Sherwin-Williams noted several things that impacted its profits for the period: increased selling, general and administrative expenses for broader restructuring initiative related to softer demand, sooner than anticipated building related costs and heightened growth investment related to incremental competitive opportunities.

Court confirms distribution plan in Conn’s bankruptcy

While its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case is not yet closed, Conn’s Inc. reached a key milestone nearly a year after its initial filing. On July 21 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas, Judge Alfedo R. Perez approved the third amended joint Chapter 11 plan of distribution of Conn’s Inc. and its debtor affiliates, which included former Top 100 retailers Conn’s HomePlus and Badcock Home Furniture &more. Both brands went out of business since the proceedings began on July 23, 2024. In approving the plan, the court overruled the U.S. Trustee’s objections to the scope of third-party releases and exculpation provisions. The confirmed plan details distribution of assets, wind-down of operations, settlement of claims and dissolution of debtors, although no effective date was set in the filed documents.

Jewelry & Luxury

Titan to Acquire 67% of Gulf Jeweler Damas

Indian jewelry giant Titan has agreed to pay AED 1.038 million ($283 million) for a 67% stake in Damas, the 250-store Middle Eastern jeweler based in Dubai. Currently owned by Qatar’s Mannai Corp., Damas is considered one of the largest jewelers in the Middle East, with stores in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain. Starting in 2030, Tanishq will have “a path” to purchase the remaining 33% of the company from Mannai, it said. Damas’ sales for its most recent fiscal year totaled AED 1.46 million ($397 million). One of its holdings—a franchise of a Graff store—will be discontinued after this transaction. Post-transaction, Signature Jewellery Holding Ltd. will become the holding company for Damas, and all Damas entities will become subsidiaries of Signature.

De Beers Sees Diamond Production Sink 36% in Q2

De Beers Group continues to hold back on diamond production as demand for rough diamonds remains lower. The company’s second-quarter production report was released as part of parent company Anglo American’s broader report on all of its operations. Anglo confirmed last May that it is looking to sell De Beers. The company said that the formal process to offload De Beers is “advancing,” despite market conditions. In the second quarter, De Beers’ production dropped 36 percent year-over-year to 4.1 million carats, down 36 percent from 6.4 million in the same period last year. Canada, where De Beers operates one diamond mine (Gaucho Kué), reported the sharpest drop in production at 46 percent, followed by Botswana at 44 percent, and Namibia at 5 percent.

LVMH net profit dropped 14% in H1

LVMH reported a net profit decline of 14% to 7.3 billion euros (or about $7.9 billion) in the first half of 2024, down from 8.5 billion year over year, per an earnings release. Revenue for the period dropped 1%, with fashion and leather goods falling 2% and watches and jewelry down 5%. The company said it was subject to a substantial “negative impact of exchange rate fluctuations, particularly on Fashion & Leather Goods.” Profit from recurring operations fell 6% in fashion and leather goods and 19% in watches and jewelry. The company’s largest declines continued to hit its Wines & Spirits division, which saw a 12% revenue decline and a 26% drop in profit from recurring operations in H1, “reflecting the ongoing normalization of demand that began in 2023,” per the release. Demand for Moët & Chandon champagne and Hennessy cognac has begun to wane since its peak during the pandemic.

Office & Leisure

LVMH-backed investor group takes 20% stake in private jet company Flexjet

An investment group led by LVMH’s private equity arm is buying 20% of private jet company Flexjet, marking the latest push by the luxury industry to expand into travel.  L Catterton, the private equity firm backed by French luxury giant LVMH, is leading an $800 million investment in Flexjet that will also include brand partnerships and collaborations. The investment group also includes affiliates of KSL Capital Partners and the J. Safra Group. Flexjet will continue to be controlled by parent company Directional Aviation Capital.  The deal highlights the luxury industry’s rapid expansion into the experience economy as wealthy consumers increase their spending on travel, dining and special events. LVMH acquired hospitality group Belmond in 2018 for $3.2 billion, and has been building out its Cheval Blanc and Bulgari hotel and resort brands.

Rent Like A Champion Acquires CollegeWeekends

Rent Like A Champion, a short-term vacation rental platform headquartered in Chicago, IL, has acquired CollegeWeekends, a short-term rental platform focused on college towns based in Chesapeake, VA.  The acquisition provides Rent Like A Champion with added market presence and access to new customers. Over the past five years, CollegeWeekends has expanded into new markets across the country with listings in over 25 markets and will extend Rent Like a Champion’s national footprint.  Rent Like A Champion is a vacation rental platform for major sporting events, focusing primarily on college town markets and PGA Tour events.  The company was founded by three Notre Dame students in 2006 and has expanded to several other college town markets and PGA events.

Technology & Internet

Amazon to buy AI company Bee that makes wearable listening device

Amazon plans to acquire wearables startup Bee AI, the company confirmed, in the latest example of tech giants doubling down on generative artificial intelligence. Bee, based in San Francisco, makes a $49.99 wristband that appears similar to a Fitbit smartwatch. The device is equipped with AI and microphones that can listen to and analyze conversations to provide summaries, to-do lists and reminders for everyday tasks. Bee CEO Maria de Lourdes Zollo announced in a LinkedIn post on Tuesday that the company will join Amazon. “When we started Bee, we imagined a world where AI is truly personal, where your life is understood and enhanced by technology that learns with you,” Zollo wrote. “What began as a dream with an incredible team and community now finds a new home at Amazon.”

Amazon backs 3D imaging startup Cambridge Terahertz, return fraud

Amazon is turning to the startup world to find a potential fix for one of its thorniest logistics problems. Retailers of all sizes have in recent years struggled with an uptick in fraudulent returns. The scam involves shoppers requesting a refund, but instead of returning the merchandise, they keep the item and send back an empty package or a box of unrelated junk. It’s become a costly nuisance for retailers, accounting for $103 billion in losses last year, according to Appriss Retail. Cambridge Terahertz, a Sunnyvale, California-based startup, has developed a 3D imaging system that can see inside unopened packages, enabling retailers to more easily and quickly spot cases of return fraud. The company has just closed a $12 million seed financing, led by venture firm Felicis, with participation from Amazon’s $1 billion Industrial Innovation Fund and other investors.

Cloaked, a consumer app for user identity protection, raises $11 million and launches new features

Lux Capital-backed Cloaked, a consumer app for user identity protection, launched an AI-powered caller screening and dark web monitoring feature today. Additionally, the startup is releasing a dark web monitor for personal data. Until 2023, the startup had raised $29 million in funding. Bhatnagar said that the company has gotten an additional $11 million in funding from a mix of existing and new investors, but it is not defining the round or disclosing the new investors as it plans to close a formal round by the end of this year. Cloaked said that it has added more than 100,000 paying customers since the beginning of the year and is seeing strong month-over-month growth.

Finance & Economy

US recession signal flashes again as LEI falls for 3rd straight month

The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined by 0.3 per cent in June 2025 to 98.8, after no change in May. As a result, the LEI fell by 2.8 per cent over the first half of 2025, a substantially faster rate of decline than the –1.3 per cent contraction over the second half of 2024. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the US rose by 0.3 per cent in June 2025 to 115.1 after being unchanged in both May and April. The CEI rose by 0.8 per cent over the first half of this year, down from 1 per cent growth over the previous six months, The Conference Board said in a press release. The CEI’s four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components of the coincident index improved in June.

Oil Extends Losses With Focus on US Trade Talks and Stockpiles

Oil inched lower as investors monitored progress on US tariff talks and eyed stockpile data. Brent crude traded near $68 a barrel. While President Donald Trump unveiled deals with Japan and the Philippines, the European Union plans to quickly hit the US with 30% tariffs on billions of dollars worth of goods if no agreement is reached. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he’ll discuss a potential extension of the trade truce with China during talks in Stockholm next week. The discussions can now take on a broader array of topics, potentially including Beijing’s continued purchases of “sanctioned” oil from Russia and Iran, he said.