The Weekly Consensus

The Weekly Consensus

Maeghan Thompson

Story of the Week

Kraft Heinz to split into two companies

Kraft Heinz will split into two companies, reversing much of the blockbuster $46 billion merger from a decade ago that created one of the biggest food companies in the world. The first of the two new companies, which are not yet named, will primarily include shelf-stable meals and will be home to brands such as Heinz, Philadelphia, and Kraft Mac and Cheese. Kraft Heinz said that the company on its own would have $15.4 billion in 2024 net sales, and approximately 75% of those sales would come from sauces, spreads, and seasonings. Kraft Heinz said the second new company would be a “scaled portfolio of North America staples” and would include items such as Oscar Mayer, Kraft Singles, and Lunchables. That company would have had approximately $10.4 billion in 2024 net sales.

Apparel & Footwear

Lululemon says it has gotten ‘too predictable,’ as tariffs, outlook sink its stock

Lululemon reported quarterly earnings on Thursday. As a weak outlook and concerns about higher tariffs sank Lululemon Athletica Inc.’s stock, executives at the yoga-wear maker tried to size up the company’s recent struggles, amid concerns about cautious consumers, competition, and what some analysts suggested was a lack of fashion cohesion in stores. In short, they said, they let some of their products get stale. The fix, they said, was in bringing in newer products more quickly.

Caleres Hit by Market Uncertainty in Q2, But Sees Improvement Ahead

Shares of Caleres Inc. dipped over 9 percent in pre-market trading on Thursday (9/4) as the footwear company reported second-quarter earnings below analyst expectations. The St. Louis-based company said net earnings in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 were $6.71 million, or 20 cents per diluted share, down from $29.96 million, or 85 cents per diluted share, in the second quarter of 2024. Net sales totaled $658.52 million, down 3.6 percent from $683.32 million at the same time last year. While revenue slightly beat analyst expectations — market watchers predicted net sales of $656.48 million — Caleres missed on earnings per share. According to Yahoo Finance, analysts were looking for 56 cents a share in the second quarter.

Shoe Carnival Stock Soars After Q2 Earnings Beat

Shoe Carnival’s stock soared nearly 15 percent in pre-market trading on Thursday (9/4) as the company said its rebanner strategy is paying off. The Fort Mill, S.C.-based footwear retailer reported net sales in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 of $306.4 million compared to $332.7 million in the second quarter of 2024, a decrease of 7.9 percent. Net income in Q2 was $19.2 million, or 70 cents per diluted share, compared to $22.6 million, or 82 cents per diluted share in the prior year. The results beat analyst expectations, which were expecting net sales in the second quarter of $299.02 million, with earnings per share of 50 cents.

Athletic & Sporting Goods

Rawlings Acquires Leading Training and Accessories Company, Tanner Tees

Rawlings, the number one diamond sports brand worldwide, and official game ball, glove, helmet, face guard and base of Major League Baseball, announced its recent purchase of Tanner Tees. This partnership reflects a notable entry into the diamond sports training category by Rawlings. Tanner Tees, founded by former baseball coach Joe Tanner in Sarasota, FL, manufactures the “industry standard” in premium batting tees utilized by youth, high school and collegiate programs as well as professional athletes nationwide.  Tanner Tees was founded by retired coach Joe Tanner after nearly fifty years in baseball. Today, Tanner Tees can be found in big league batting cages, thousands of college and high school programs, and training facilities all around the world.

Backcountry.com buys Velotech, the parent of BikeTiresDirect

Backcountry.com has acquired Velotech Inc, the parent of e-commerce retailers BikeTiresDirect, Western Bikeworks, and TriSports.  Backcountry bought the cycling e-commerce site CompetitiveCyclist.com in 2011. In July, it acquired Level Nine Sports, a Utah retailer of outdoor, ski and bike products through brick-and-mortar locations and e-commerce.  Velotech bought TriSports in 2017.  Velotech has its headquarters and a will-call showroom in Portland, where it maintains community ties by sponsoring the Portland Velo non-profit cycling club and numerous local cycling events.

Bregal Sagemount Announces Strategic Growth Investment in Spark Membership

Bregal Sagemount, a leading growth-focused private equity firm, today announced a strategic investment in Spark Membership, a category-leading platform that provides vertically integrated membership management software and embedded payments solutions purpose-built for martial arts studios. Founded in 2017 and headquartered in Tampa, Florida, Spark offers a unified software and payments solution to help owner-operated martial arts studios streamline operations, grow revenue, and enhance member engagement. The Company serves over 2,000 customers internationally and processes over $750 million in annual payments through its fully integrated platform.

Cosmetics & Pharmacy

Ulta Beauty Reports Strong Q2 FY2025 Results With 9.3% Sales Growth

Ulta Beauty delivered a solid second quarter for fiscal 2025, with net sales up 9.3% to US$2.8 billion and comparable sales climbing 6.7%, boosted by strong category performance and the recent acquisition of Space NK. Net income rose to US$260.9 million, or US$5.78 per diluted share, compared to US$252.6 million last year. Gross profit margin expanded to 39.2% on lower shrinkage and higher merchandise margin, though SG&A expenses increased 15% due to payroll and incentive costs. Ulta opened 24 new stores in the quarter, bringing its U.S. total to 1,473, alongside 83 Space NK stores in the U.K. and Ireland.

OLAPLEX acquires biotech firm Purvala to fuel product innovation
OLAPLEX has made its first acquisition since launch, purchasing Boston-based Purvala Bioscience to strengthen its science-led approach to haircare. Purvala, founded in 2020 by MIT’s Dr. Bradley Olsen and colleagues, develops bioinspired molecules with applications in beauty and health. OLAPLEX CEO Amanda Baldwin said the acquisition builds on the brand’s bond-building legacy and will drive the next generation of disruptive, science-backed formulations. The deal reflects OLAPLEX’s commitment to expanding innovation pipelines and reinforcing its position as a leader in professional haircare through biotech-driven R&D.

Violet Grey Acquires The Detox Market, Eyes Cos Bar to Accelerate Growth

Violet Grey, the luxury beauty retailer founded by Cassandra Grey and CEO Sherif Guirgis, has quietly acquired The Detox Market earlier this year and is close to finalizing a deal for Cos Bar, sources told WWD. The Detox Market acquisition expands Violet Grey’s reach into “clean” beauty, while Cos Bar would add 21 luxury stores and a high-spending clientele to its portfolio. The company, which returned to Grey and Guirgis’s ownership after being sold by Farfetch in 2024, has since expanded with a second Madison Avenue store and named Bluemercury alumna Tracy Kline as group president. Deal terms have not been disclosed, and it remains unclear whether Cos Bar’s stores will be rebranded or retain their existing team.

Magic Science Corporation Announces Strategic Partnership With NexPhase Capital and Acquisition of Leading Hypochlorous Acid Manufacturer

Magic Science Corporation, the health sciences company behind the fast-growing skincare brand Magic Molecule, announced an investment by NexPhase Capital (NPC), a thematically driven and operationally-focused private equity firm. The investment will fuel Magic Science Corporation’s expansion across product, retail distribution, and category-defining, science-backed skincare and household consumer goods. Magic Science Corporation is a leading FDA- and EPA-registered manufacturer of hypochlorous acid (HOCl) in the U.S., with patented processes that deliver HOCl consumer goods with one of the longest shelf lives on the market. With full vertical integration through the earlier acquisition of its manufacturer, Magic Science Corporation controls its production from solution to packaging to shelves, ensuring top-tier purity, stability, and efficacy.

Discounters & Department Stores

Macy’s shares jump 20% as retailer tops earnings estimates, raises outlook

Macy’s posted fiscal second-quarter earnings on Wednesday (9/3) that easily topped Wall Street’s expectations, as it said revamped stores helped sales trends. The department store operator also raised its full-year earnings and sales guidance. It now expects adjusted earnings of between $1.70 and $2.05 per share, compared with $1.60 to $2 per share, and revenue between $21.15 billion and $21.45 billion, compared with $21 billion to $21.4 billion. The stock closed 20% higher on Wednesday. Macy’s had slashed its full-year guidance last quarter and reported uncertainty in sales due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Dollar General Q2 sales up 5.1%, raises full-year forecast

Dollar General Corporation has reported financial results for its second quarter of fiscal 2025, ended August 1, 2025, with solid growth across key metrics. Net sales rose 5.1 per cent to $10.7 billion from $10.2 billion in the same quarter last year, driven by contributions from new stores and same-store sales growth of 2.8 per cent. The same-store performance reflected a 1.5 per cent increase in customer traffic and a 1.2 per cent rise in average transaction size, with gains recorded in consumables, seasonal items, home products, and apparel.

Emerging Consumer Companies

Travel brand Antler acquires the assets of Paravel

British travel brand Antler has acquired U.S. luxury fashion and luggage brand Paravel, which was previously in liquidation, to build a global house of travel brands. The acquisition followed Paravel’s bankruptcy filing, and Antler purchased the brand’s assets after becoming the highest bidder. With the acquisition, Antler and its holding group, Strand, now own and operate three global brands under the ATR Group. Each brand holds a market position inspired by its domestic market — Antler (UK), Nere (Australia) and Paravel (USA).

Eyebot raises $20 million to expand access to vision care

Eyebot, the company behind the 90-second vision test kiosk that delivers doctor-verified glasses prescriptions, announced it has raised $20 million in Series A funding. The round was led by General Catalyst, with participation from returning investors AlleyCorp, Baukunst, Village Global, and Ubiquity Ventures. Eyebot is redefining how people access vision care by eliminating traditional barriers like appointment delays, insurance hurdles, and inaccessibility. Its kiosks—currently in malls, universities, retail stores, and grocery chains—provide a free, 90-second vision test that can also generate a glasses prescription reviewed and verified by licensed eye doctors. With this new round of funding, Eyebot will expand across hundreds of new retail locations, scale its clinical and engineering teams, and deepen its engagement with eye care professionals.

Garage Beer, founded by Travis and Jason Kelce, raises significant investment round

Garage Beer announced a strategic growth investment from Durational Capital Management. Proceeds from the investment will be used to further invest in Garage Beer’s marketing, sales force and field resources to accelerate the Company’s explosive growth nationwide and deepen relationships with distributors, retailers and customers. As part of the transaction, Durational will become a large shareholder of Garage Beer, alongside existing owners and operators Travis and Jason Kelce and Andy Sauer. In addition, Bill Hackett, former Chairman & President of Constellation Brands’ Beer Division, Rich Pascucci, former Chief Growth Officer of Pabst Blue Ribbon, and Rhodes McKee, Chairman & Managing Partner of MavenHill Capital & ReynardMcKee, will join Garage Beer’s Board of Directors.

Food & Beverage

Keurig Dr Pepper to buy JDE Peet’s for $18B to boost struggling coffee business

Keurig Dr Pepper is buying JDE Peet’s for $18 billion in cash as the beverage maker aims to grow its struggling coffee operations. Once the merger is completed, Keurig Dr Pepper plans to separate its coffee and beverage units into two independent, publicly listed companies. The intended split would unwind the 2018 transaction that combined Dr Pepper with Keurig Green Mountain, creating a sprawling beverage giant with a portfolio spanning coffee, Bai, 7UP, Sunkist, and A&W under one roof.

PepsiCo ups stake in Celsius to 11% with $585M deal

PepsiCo is increasing its stake in Celsius Holdings as part of a $585 million deal that deepens the beverage giant’s presence in the popular energy drink category. PepsiCo is acquiring convertible preferred stock in Celsius, which will increase its ownership stake in the Florida-based company to 11%. PepsiCo first invested in Celsius in 2022, paying $550 million for an 8.5% stake. As part of the latest deal, PepsiCo will incorporate Alani Nu, Celsius’ recently acquired energy drink brand, into its distribution system in the U.S. and Canada. In addition, Celsius will acquire the Rockstar Energy drink brand from PepsiCo in the U.S. and Canada.

Post Holdings sells recently acquired pasta business for more than $350M

Post Holdings is selling the pasta portion of its 8th Avenue Food & Provisions division to Richardson Holdings just two months after paying $880 million to buy out the Ronzoni owner. The food processor will pay Post $375 million in cash and assume approximately $80 million in leaseback financial liabilities. Post will retain the part of 8th Avenue’s portfolio that includes nut butters, fruit and nut products, and granola. The transaction, expected to close in Post’s first fiscal quarter of 2026, includes three production facilities located in Carrington, North Dakota; New Hope, Minnesota; and Winchester, Virginia. Approximately 500 employees from 8th Avenue will join Richardson after the sale.

Grocery & Restaurants

Noodles & Company to explore possible sale

Noodles & Company has hired financial services firm Piper Sandler to advise it as it embarks on a “review of strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value,” the fast-casual chain said Wednesday. The company based in Broomfield, Colo., said the options it was exploring included a sale or refranchising of all or part of the business and refinancing of current debt. The chain of around 450 restaurants has been out of compliance of the rules of the Nasdaq Stock Market, where its shares are traded, since June 24, 30 consecutive business days after its share price dipped below $1.

Freddy’s Frozen Custard & Steakburgers acquired by PE firm Rhône

Freddy’s Frozen Custard & Steakburgers has been acquired by investment funds affiliated with private equity firm Rhône from Thompson Street Capital Partners, a St. Louis-based middle-market private equity firm. Freddy’s currently has more than 550 locations in the United States and Canada, generating more than $1 billion in systemwide sales in the past year. Freddy’s grew its sales by nearly 7% year-over-year in 2024, according to Technomic, while its footprint grew by nearly 6.5%. Throughout the past five years, the chain’s sales have increased by 13%, outpacing most of its peers in the fast-casual burger segment. Thompson Street Capital Partners acquired Freddy’s in 2021, generating sales and average unit volume expansion, while also supporting operational, innovation, and digital initiatives.

Home & Road

Bed Bath & Beyond chairman heralds “new chapter of growth” at NYSE

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange last week, commemorating its new corporate name and ticker symbol. The shift from Beyond Inc. to the new corporate identity officially took effect Aug. 29 and represented the latest rebrand for what was once the Overstock Inc. company. After Overstock acquired the legacy Bed Bath & Beyond intellectual property in June 2023, it rebranded as Beyond Inc. that November. The business now comprises bedbathandbeyond.com, a Bed Bath & Beyond Home store (with more slated to open), buybuybaby.com, overstock.com, and other related brands and websites as well as a blockchain asset portfolio. “Today’s bell ringing marks more than a name change, it marks a new chapter of growth,” said Marcus Lemonis, executive chairman and principal executive officer. “Our focus is clear: to deliver a seamless shopping experience that combines the strength of our online platforms with the excitement of new store openings nationwide over the next 24 months.”

Williams-Sonoma Inc. boosts top-line outlook

With all its retail banners generating positive comps, Williams-Sonoma Inc. bested its profitability estimates in the second quarter. The company saw growth in both its furniture and non-furniture categories, with total revenues up 2.7% to $1.8 billion for the quarter ended Aug. 3. Consolidated comp rose  3.7%. The company’s merchandise inventories jumped 17.7% year-over-year to $1.4 billion as Williams-Sonoma Inc. pulled forward receipts to reduce the impact of higher tariffs. Net earnings climbed 14.2% to $247.6 million, or $2.00 per diluted share. Following the announcement of its Q2 results, Williams-Sonoma Inc. hiked its top-line guidance for the full fiscal year. It now expects net revenues to increase in the range of 0.5% to 3.5%, with comps up from 2.0% to 5.0%.

Jewelry & Luxury

Zegna Group Reports 53% Profit Surge in H1 2025

Ermenegildo Zegna NV reported its second-quarter 2025 earnings, surpassing analyst expectations with an EPS of 0.17, compared to the forecasted 0.14, marking a 21.43% surprise. The company’s revenue reached approximately €928 million. Following the earnings announcement, Zegna’s stock price rose by 2.64% in premarket trading, reflecting investor optimism. Zegna’s EPS surpassed expectations by 21.43%, indicating strong financial performance. The company reported a 53% year-over-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025.

Golden Goose Reports Strong H1 Growth, Expands Retail Footprint

Golden Goose sneakers continue to sprint ahead. An acceleration in the second quarter and a robust performance across all channels and geographies helped the Italian brand, best known for its successful Super–star sneakers and intentionally distressed styles, report a strong set of results for the first half of the year. In the six months ended June 30, group revenues rose 13 percent to 342.1 million euros compared with 307.3 million euros in the same period last year. In the second quarter, sales rose 14 percent, compared with growth of 12 percent in the first quarter.

Office & Leisure

Great River Entertainment assets acquired by Elite Casino Resorts

Elite Casino Resorts has officially acquired the assets and operations of Great River Entertainment, including the operator’s Catfish Bend Casino and FunCity Resort properties in Burlington, Iowa.  The two facilities will now join Elite Casino Resorts’ portfolio, featuring gaming establishments such as Riverside Casino & Golf Resort, Rhythm City Casino Resort, Grand Falls Casino & Golf Resort, Walker’s Bluff Casino Resort, Grand Island Casino Resort and Lake Mac Casino Resort and Racetrack.  The Kehl family, majority owners of Elite Casino Resorts, originally helped launch casino gaming in Burlington, Iowa throughout the state’s riverboat era before selling assets to Randy Winegard.  Catfish Bend Casino and FunCity Resort offer 30,000 sq ft of gaming space to Iowa residents, featuring more than 600 slot machines, 18 table games, poker, a sportsbook and high-limit room. Team members of both facilities have been assured their roles will remain in place throughout the transaction.

Frasers moves into mini-golf and trampolining with We Do Play investment

Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group is expanding into trampoline parks and mini golf after snapping up a stake in leisure group We Do Play.  Frasers, which runs Sports Direct and House of Fraser, said it will be the company’s first move into the UK leisure market.  The company has acquired an undisclosed minor investment in the business, which runs brands including Flip Out trampolining venues and Activate interactive and live gaming venues. Frasers said it plans to launch more than 40 Activate sites across the UK in the coming years after successful openings in London and Newcastle.  We Do Play also runs the Putt Putt Social and Rumble Rooms brands.

India’s TBO Buys Luxury Tour Operator Classic Vacations

Luxury tour operator Classic Vacations has a new owner.  Gurugram, India-based global travel distribution company TBO has purchased Classic Vacations from its current owner, the Phoenix-based investment firm The Najafi Companies, for “up to $125 million.”  The deal gives Classic its third owner in the last five years; Expedia Group owned Classic before selling it to The Najafi Companies in 2021.  Classic is one of the premier U.S. luxury vacation companies and has always operated under a B2B2C model, with a strong presence in the travel trade. The move from The Najafi Companies to TBO will only enhance that dedication, Melissa Krueger, the CEO of Classic, said in the announcement.  According to the announcement, Classic Vacations delivered revenue of $111 million and operating EBITDA of $11.2 million in the fiscal year ended Dec. 31, 2024.

Videndum sells JOBY brand

Content creation tools group Videndum has sold its consumer-facing tripods and camera mounts business JOBY to shift its focus on the more professional markets.  JOBY has been sold to camera and smartphone accessories company VIJIM for an undisclosed sum, Videndum confirmed.  Videndum’s consumer-facing businesses have been affected by weak demand in recent years due to the impact of weak consumer confidence and inflationary pressures on disposable incomes.

Technology & Internet

Amazon must face US nationwide class action over third-party sales

Amazon.com must face a class action on behalf of hundreds of millions of U.S. consumers over claims that the online retail giant overcharged for products sold by third-party sellers, a federal judge in Seattle has ruled. U.S. District Judge John Chun in an order unsealed on Friday certified a nationwide class involving 288 million customers and billions of transactions, marking one of the largest-ever in the United States. The class includes buyers in the United States who purchased five or more new goods from third-party sellers on Amazon since May 26, 2017. The consumers’ 2021 lawsuit said Amazon violated antitrust law by restricting third-party sellers from offering their products for lower prices elsewhere on rival platforms while they are also for sale on Amazon. Amazon’s policies have allowed the company to impose inflated fees on sellers, causing shoppers to pay higher prices for purchases, the lawsuit said. Amazon has denied any wrongdoing.

Best Buy Reports Modest Sales Recovery

Best Buy surpassed Wall Street revenue and earnings expectations for its most recent quarter on Thursday, but stuck with its full-year forecast, citing tariff uncertainty. On the company’s earnings call, CEO Corie Barry said the retailer is “increasingly confident about our plans for the back half of the year.” She said the company is “trending toward the higher end of our sales range.” Yet she said, “given the uncertainty of potential tariff impacts in the back half, both on consumers overall as well as our business, we feel it is prudent to maintain the annual guidance we provided last quarter.” The consumer electronics retailer said it expects revenue of $41.1 billion to $41.9 billion. The middle of Best Buy’s expected full-year revenue range would be roughly flat to its revenue of $41.53 billion in the previous year. Best Buy said it expects full-year comparable sales, a metric that tracks online sales and sales at stores open at least 14 months, to range between a 1% decline and a 1% increase.

Finance & Economy

Job openings data falls to levels rarely seen since pandemic

Job openings ticked down in July to levels rarely seen since the Covid-19 pandemic, bolstering fears of a cooling in the labor market. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover report showed around 7.18 million listings in July, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday (9/3). That’s only the second reading under the 7.2 million level since the end of 2020. Wednesday’s print was the lowest since September 2024, when just more than 7.1 million openings were reported. Outside of that blip lower last year, these job opening levels were last seen when the pandemic was causing an upheaval of the U.S. economy and labor force.

Mortgage rates see biggest one-day drop in over a year

The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage dropped 16 basis points to 6.29% Friday (9/5), according to Mortgage News Daily, following the release of a weaker-than-expected August employment report. It marks the lowest rate since October 3 and the biggest one-day drop since August 2024. Rates are finally breaking out of the high 6% range, where they’ve been stuck for months. “This was a pretty straightforward reaction to a hotly anticipated jobs report,” said Mortgage News Daily Chief Operating Officer Matt Graham. “It’s a good reminder that the market gets to decide what matters in terms of economic data, and the bond market has a clear voting record that suggests the jobs report is always the biggest potential source of volatility for rates.” Graham said in a post on X that many lenders are “priced better” than October 3 and would be quoting in the high 5% range.

Trump finalizes Japan trade deal with 15% tariffs

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday (9/4) to implement a trade deal with Japan, with 15% baseline tariffs on most Japanese goods, including autos. The deal had been reached in July after months of negotiations, with Washington and Tokyo continuing to haggle over details for weeks before it was signed. As part of the deal, Tokyo agreed to invest $550 billion in projects selected by the U.S. government and ramp up its purchase of American agricultural products, such as corn and soybeans, as well as U.S.-made commercial aircraft and defense equipment.