The Weekly Consensus

The Weekly Consensus

Maeghan Thompson

Story of the Week

EA going private in $55 billion deal that will pay shareholders $210 a share

Electronic Arts said that it has agreed to be acquired by the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia, Silver Lake and Affinity Partners in an all-cash deal worth $55 billion.  Shareholders of the company will receive $210 per share in cash.  The group of companies is making a total $36 billion equity investment, with $20 billion in debt financing from JPMorgan, according to the release.  PIF is rolling over its existing 9.9% stake in the company and will, by far, be the majority investor in the new structure, people close to the deal told CNBC’s David Faber.  JPMorgan was brought in a couple of weeks ago, people familiar with the deal told Faber.  The take-private deal for the maker of popular games like Battlefield, The Sims and the Madden series of NFL games, among others, is set to be the largest leveraged buyout in Wall Street history.

Apparel & Footwear

Carter’s adopts poison pill after hedge fund amasses nearly 17% of shares

Carter’s, Inc.’s board of directors has adopted a shareholder rights plan (also known as a poison pill) following an investment firm’s “rapid accumulation of a significant amount” of its common stock, the children’s wear retailer said in financial filings on Sept 24th. Hedge fund Roseman Wagner Wealth Management (RWWM) earlier this month disclosed it had acquired nearly 17% of the company’s shares, making it the retailer’s top shareholder. “Carter’s was given no advance notice of the stock accumulation by RWWM, and there has been no communication from RWWM, despite attempts by Carter’s management to contact RWWM,” Carter’s said in its filing. “It is possible that RWWM is continuing to accumulate stock.” RWWM did not reply to Retail Dive’s requests for comment.

H&M profit jumps as brand-boosting strategy starts to pay off

Swedish fashion group H&M reported a bigger-than-expected rise in third-quarter profit on Sept 25, and while its autumn collections were selling well, CEO Daniel Erver cautioned that U.S. tariffs may dampen consumer demand there. Shares in the world’s second-largest listed apparel retailer jumped 10% to hit their highest level in 11 months after operating profit for the June-August period increased by 40%. Daniel Erver, CEO since January 2024, has been working to improve profitability by appealing to shoppers with trendier styles, aiming to compete with fast-fashion rivals such as Shein and Inditex’s Zara, as the sector contends with disruption from U.S. tariffs.

Stitch Fix Q4 revenue falls 2.6% but grows on adjusted basis

Online personal styling service Stitch Fix Inc. has reported net revenue of $311.2 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, ended August 2, down 2.6 percent year-over-year (YoY). Adjusting for the impact of the extra week in Q4 FY24 of $21.6 million, net revenue increased 4.4 percent YoY. Active clients totaled 2.309 million, down 7.9 per cent YoY. The gross margin slipped 100 basis points to 43.6 percent, while the company reported a net loss of $8.6 million, compared with a net loss of $35.7 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $8.7 million, reflecting ongoing cost discipline. It reported a basic and diluted loss per share of $0.07.

Former The Row President Trish Donnelly Named CEO of Chico’s, Sister Brands

Chico’s and its sister brands have a new leader. The women’s wear retailer owned by the KnitWell Group has named Trish Donnelly as division CEO. Most recently president of The Row, Donnelly will oversee all product and customer-facing functions for the Chico’s, Soma, and White House Black Market brands, while also leading the day-to-day operations of KnitWell Group’s Fort Myers campus in Florida. The last person to hold the position was Molly Langenstein, who exited the company in January 2024 after it was acquired by the KnitWell Group for $1 billion. Since then, Lizanne Kindler, Executive Chair and CEO of KnitWell Group, has overseen the division.

Birkenstock Raises Sales Outlook; Buys Factory to Expand Production

Birkenstock Holding Plc has raised its sales forecast for its fiscal fourth quarter and year, driven by consumer demand for its sandals and clogs. The company has also outlined plans for a new factory near Dresden, Germany, to boost production. The announcements come as Birkenstock management plans to host a meeting with analysts and investors at its headquarters in Munich. The company expects fourth-quarter revenues to total at least €520 million ($611 million), representing growth of at least 14% on a reported basis and 18% in constant currency. Analysts’ consensus target had been €515 million.

Athletic & Sporting Goods

Long-Awaited NikeSKIMS Launches To Reignite Nike’s Women’s Business

After delays due to product issues in its scheduled May release, the first NikeSKIMS activewear collections – the strategic partnership between the sportswear giant and Kim Kardashian’s $4 billion disruptive shapewear venture – will launch on both companies’ websites and in select Nike and SKIMS stores Friday, September 26. NikeSKIMS’ first outing will include three core activewear collections, along with four seasonal collections, all designed to support women with high-performance fabrication expected from Nike and the body-conscious styling SKIMS is known for. NikeSKIMS is part of the company’s multi-pronged offense to boost Nike’s women’s business, starting with its Super Bowl commercial featuring an all-female cast, the new A’One sneaker with A’ja Wilson and the recently announced Caitlin Clark partnership.

USL sells minority stake as ex-Carlyle CEO joins board

The United Soccer League (USL) has added private investment firm BellTower Partners as an investor.  The organisation, which runs most of the lower-league soccer divisions in the US, also announced that BellTower’s founder Kewsong Lee will join its board of directors as vice chair, serving alongside USL chief executive Alec Papadakis and chairman Rob Hoskins.  Lee served as chief executive of investment firm The Carlyle Group from 2018 to 2022. The BellTower-led investment is a purchase of a minority equity stake in the USL.

Cosmetics & Pharmacy

Windsong Global Acquires KVD Beauty

KVD Beauty has found a new owner in private equity firm Windsong Global, marking the first-ever brand divestiture by Kendo, the beauty incubator owned by luxury conglomerate LVMH. The deal was first reported by Beauty Independent. Launched in 2008 with just four red lipsticks, the brand—originally known as Kat Von D Beauty—rose to fame with its gothic aesthetic and bold, high-performance makeup. Following Kat Von D’s exit in 2020, Kendo took full ownership and rebranded the line as KVD Beauty, repositioning it as a fully vegan offering. Under Kendo’s stewardship, the brand underwent two costly relaunches, most recently in 2021, and introduced products such as the Good Apple Lightweight Full-Coverage Concealer in 2022.

L’Oréal Announces Major Executive Committee Reshuffle Effective 2026

L’Oréal has announced a series of leadership changes within its Executive Committee, effective January 1, 2026, with transitions beginning in October 2025. David Greenberg will become Chairman of L’Oréal USA, a newly created role focused on representing the Group with key stakeholders in its largest market. He is succeeded as CEO of L’Oréal USA and President of North America by Alexis Perakis-Valat, currently President of the Consumer Products Division. Fabrice Megarbane, Chief Global Growth Officer, will succeed Perakis-Valat as President of the Consumer Products Division, while Vianney Derville, currently President of Europe, will assume the role of Chief Growth Officer. Emmanuel Goulin, President of Travel Retail, will move to lead the Europe Zone, with Eva Yu, President of L’Oréal Hong Kong, appointed as his successor in Travel Retail and joining the Extended Executive Committee.

Rhode’s Sephora Debut Hits US$15 Million, Outpaces Rare Beauty and Fenty

Hailey Bieber’s skincare brand Rhode generated about US$15 million in first-week sales at Sephora North America, surpassing the launch figures of Selena Gomez’s Rare Beauty and Rihanna’s Fenty. Backed by E.l.f. Beauty’s billion-dollar acquisition, Rhode launched with a compact range of around 10 SKUs. Demand was immediate, with sellouts reported in key stores such as New York’s SoHo location. Insiders called the rollout “unprecedented,” citing the impact of Bieber’s personal branding and Sephora’s shift toward buzzy, influencer-driven lines. The performance highlights the market power of celebrity-backed beauty and intensifies competition among Sephora’s top-selling brands.

Natura to Sell Avon International to Regent, Refocus on Latin America

Natura has entered a binding agreement to sell its Avon International operations in Europe, Africa, and Asia to private equity firm Regent. Avon Russia is excluded from the deal and remains held for sale. The divestment, subject to regulatory approval, marks the final stage of Natura’s corporate simplification program launched in 2022. Avon International has been undergoing restructuring, while Natura will retain control of the brand and intellectual property in Latin America. The company recently sold Avon’s Central America and Caribbean assets to Grupo PDC.

Discounters & Department Stores

Galeries Lafayette names Alexandre Liot Deputy CEO, Alix Morabito to lead Offer and Purchasing

French department store Galeries Lafayette has announced significant changes to its executive committee, elevating Alexandre Liot to Deputy CEO in charge of operations and appointing Alix Morabito as Director of Offer and Purchasing. These moves follow the appointment of Arthur Lemoine as CEO in June and signal a renewed focus on operational excellence and strategic purchasing. Liot, a company veteran, will now oversee operations across the entire store network, building on his experience managing key locations and leading customer experience initiatives at the flagship Boulevard Haussmann store. Morabito, with a strong background in buying and merchandising, will shape the group’s offer and purchasing strategy, reporting directly to Lemoine.

Costco tops earnings, revenue estimates as warehouse club gains more members

On Thursday, Sept 25th, Costco topped Wall Street’s expectations for quarterly earnings and revenue as the warehouse club posted double-digit gains in both membership income and its e-commerce business. Unlike many other retailers, the company does not share an annual outlook. During the company’s earnings call, CFO Gary Millerchip stated that the retailer has worked diligently to offset higher tariff costs. In some cases, it has introduced new items from its Kirkland Signature private-label brand as alternatives to goods hit by tariffs, he said. About a third of Costco’s U.S. sales come from imported goods. Costco is also adjusting its merchandise assortment in some cases, he said, such as purchasing more U.S.-made items or focusing on categories with less tariff exposure, like health and beauty.

Emerging Consumer Companies

Ben Stiller launches soda brand

Ben Stiller announced the launch of his soda brand, Stiller’s Soda, with three nostalgic flavors: lemon-lime, Shirley Temple, and root beer. Stiller’s Soda is low-calorie, low-sugar, and enriched with three added vitamins, while still maintaining the classic soda taste. The three debut flavors will be sold at select retailers in New York City and available for shipping nationwide via Amazon, with additional retail expansion planned soon. Stiller’s new product aims to balance classic flavors with health-conscious appeal, without veering too far from tradition. Stiller explains that “People still love soda — they just want one that feels right for today. For me, it started with Shirley Temples as a kid, and even now, that first sip still takes me back.”

Ankored raises $4M seed round to address youth sports safety compliance gap

Ankored, a Boston-based youth sports safety platform, closed a $4 million seed funding round led by Rally Ventures, marking a significant investment in compliance technology for the youth sports ecosystem. The funding positions Ankored to scale its unified approach to managing the complex requirements that youth sports organizations face across states and sports. Ankored’s platform centralizes compliance requirements into a single workflow that serves guardians, coaches, players, and administrators. The system provides real-time visibility into both organizational and individual compliance status through automated reminders, dashboards, and AI-powered tools. The platform integrates with existing sports management systems, allowing organizations to maintain their current registration and communication tools while adding compliance oversight. This integration approach addresses a key adoption barrier for youth sports organizations that already manage multiple software platforms.

Epic Padel raises $10 million

Virginia-headquartered padel operator and investor Epic Padel has raised $10 million in seed funding to accelerate U.S. expansion and support new projects in the sport globally. The seed round was led by NowaisWorld (the sports investment arm of Nowais Inc.) and Stryde Ventures with participation from 305 Ventures, High Water Venture Partners, Lane Holdings, Off Court Ventures, Silverback Capital Group, and influential angel investors Elias Sultan and Sharam Gulzad. Founded by Maryam Al Muslehi and Hala Sarkis, Epic Padel is creating a platform for padel that combines club operations, investments, and technology. The company is currently running its first club in North Carolina to test its concept and plans to use new funding to open 4-6 more clubs. Possible locations include Virginia, Milwaukee (Wisconsin), South Carolina, and Utah. The goal is to create both indoor and outdoor clubs with sustainable designs and integrated technology.

Highsnobiety winds down e-commerce, lays off staff

Highsnobiety is calling an end to its days as a multi-brand retailer. The company announced that it will wind down its e-commerce business by the end of the year and focus on its core operations, specifically its publishing arm, which has made it an influential voice in the sneaker and streetwear industries, as well as the creative and advisory services it offers to brands. As part of the restructuring, the business will eliminate approximately 50 jobs from its total workforce of around 275, including roles in departments such as finance and technology that were related to its retail operations. Highsnobiety launched its e-commerce platform in 2019, aiming to leverage its cultural authority into product sales. The company began as a blog covering topics such as sneakers and luxury in 2005, steadily building a following and eventually branching into consulting for brands on subjects like collaboration partners and refining their storytelling.

Food & Beverage

Molson Coors promotes company insider to CEO

Molson Coors named Chief Strategy Officer Rahul Goyal as its next president and CEO effective Oct. 1. He replaces Gavin Hattersley, who announced in April that he planned to retire later this year. Hattersley will stay in an advisory role through the end of 2025 to “ensure a smooth transition,” the company said in a statement. Goyal has worked with Molson Coors for 24 years, holding executive roles in technology, finance, and strategy. He has also been instrumental in the company’s expansion into nonalcoholic beverages and energy drinks, the company said.

Tito’s Vodka buys majority stake in tequila brand in first acquisition

Tito’s Handmade Vodka bought a majority stake in Lalo Tequila, the company announced Sept 23rd, marking the first acquisition in the spirit maker’s history. Financial terms weren’t disclosed. The two Texas-based brands are positioning the deal as a “different type of spirits partnership” that allows both companies to focus on their respective product. The deal will allow Lalo to expand its distribution network and “scale from a local name to one with global reach,” according to the release.

Regal Foods acquires soft drinks brand Suncrest

Regal Foods, a global food and beverage group headquartered in the UK, has announced its acquisition of soft drinks brand Suncrest. The acquisition, which was completed for an undisclosed sum, marks a key milestone in Regal Foods’ growth journey. It will expand the group’s portfolio of F&B products – which already includes bakery, confectionery, snacks, and drinks – while creating new opportunities for growth in both the UK and international markets. Headquartered in Bradford, Regal Foods operates across both the retail and food service sectors. Suncrest, founded in 1985, is well known for its range of tropical fruit-flavored beverages. Its soft drink offerings span across still and carbonated varieties, available in bottled and carton formats. Popular flavors within its portfolio include mango, tropical, lychee, guava, coconut water, aloe vera, and the South Asian favorite, lassi.

Grocery & Restaurants

Starbucks to close stores, lay off workers in $1 billion restructuring

Starbucks announced a $1 billion restructuring plan Thursday that involves closing some of its North American coffeehouses and laying off more workers as it moves ahead with its “Back to Starbucks” transformation under CEO Brian Niccol. The number of company-operated stores in North America will decline by about 1% in fiscal 2025, accounting for both openings and closures, the company said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. That figure translates to roughly 500 gross closures, according to TD Cowen estimates. Approximately 900 nonretail employees will be laid off on Friday, Starbucks said. Starbucks estimates that 90% of the expected $1 billion restructuring cost will be attributable to the North America business. In total, the company expects to incur about $150 million in employee separation costs, plus about $850 million in restructuring charges related to the store closures, according to the filing.

Chick-fil-A is opening a beverage concept, Daybright

Chick-fil-A is the latest quick-service chain to aggressively go after the growing number of beverage-seeking consumers. The chain and its subsidiary, Red Wagon Ventures LLC, plans to open Daybright, a beverage-focused concept, in the coming months. Details are minimal at this time, but some social media sleuths have spotted the concept in Hiram, Ga., which is about 30 miles west of downtown Atlanta. According to a company spokesperson, “Daybright is a new beverage-focused restaurant concept and is scheduled to open in the greater Atlanta area this fall. Daybright is brought to you by Red Wagon Ventures, LLC, which is a subsidiary of Chick-fil-A Inc. We look forward to sharing more details in the future.” The concept will focus on specialty coffees, smoothies, cold-pressed juices, and food, but the “food” part of the menu will not include signature Chick-fil-A items. Additionally, Daybright’s beverages will differ from Chick-fil-A’s signature beverages, illustrating its autonomy from the parent brand.

Home & Road

Steelcase Q2 revenues rise, but profit pressured by tariffs 

Steelcase reported higher revenue but lower profit in its fiscal 2026 second quarter as the office furniture maker prepares to be acquired by HNI Corp. in a $2.2 billion deal. The company posted revenue of $897.1 million for the quarter ended Aug. 29, up 5% from $855.8 million a year earlier. Net income fell to $35 million, or 29 cents per share, from $63.1 million, or 53 cents per share, in the prior-year period. Adjusted earnings per share rose to 45 cents from 39 cents, reflecting stronger operating performance once merger costs and restructuring expenses were excluded. Steelcase announced in August that it had agreed to be acquired by Muscatine, Iowa-based HNI in a cash-and-stock transaction. The deal is valued at about $2.2 billion for Steelcase shareholders and is expected to close by the end of 2025, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals.

Jewelry & Luxury

Spanish Brand Tous Appoints New CEO

Spanish jewelry brand Tous has named Susana Sánchez its new CEO. She takes over from Carlos Soler-Duffo, who has led the “affordable luxury” jewelry-maker for the last six years. Sánchez will report to company president Alba Tous. Sánchez has over 25 years of retail experience, including serving as managing director of Spanish seafood company Grupo Profand. “With Susana’s arrival, we are embarking on an exciting phase in which we continue our GEM [growth, elevation, mindset] strategic plan,” Alba Tous said in a statement.

Brunello Cucinelli CEO Denies Allegations of Russian Market Irregularities, Shares Plunge

On Thursday, Sept 25th, Brunello Cucinelli firmly rejected a short-seller’s allegations of irregularities in the company’s business activities in Russia. This, however, was not enough to avoid a sharp decline in its shares on the Italian Stock Exchange. Trading was suspended earlier in the day and, after resuming, shares closed down 17.3 percent to 85.08 euros. Morpheus Research, which is betting Cucinelli’s stock will fall, issued a report alleging the company misled its shareholders and continues to operate stores in Moscow.

Luxury outerwear brand Moorer to open first U.S. store in NYC

An Italian luxury brand is set to make its debut in the United States. Real estate management and services firm Colliers has announced the lease of Moorer’s first U.S. retail store, located in New York City’s Meatpacking District in Manhattan. Founded in Verona, Italy, Moorer specializes in luxury outerwear and apparel, including jackets, coats, and vests, made exclusively in Italy, blending refined tailoring with advanced fabrics. The brand’s retail debut in New York City represents a milestone in the brand’s global expansion, which operates nine boutiques worldwide. The long-term lease covers approximately 3,400 sq. ft. on the corner of Gansevoort Street, offering Moorer a highly visible location steps from the High Line public park and Whitney Museum of American Art.

Office & Leisure

The ODP Corporation to Be Acquired by Atlas Holdings in All-Cash Transaction

The ODP Corporation, a leading provider of products, services, and technology solutions to businesses and consumers, announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by an affiliate of Atlas Holdings, which owns and operates a global family of manufacturing and distribution businesses, for $28 per share in cash. The purchase price represents a premium of 34% to The ODP Corporation’s closing share price on September 19, 2025, valuing The ODP Corporation at approximately $1 billion. The ODP Corporation is a leading provider of products, services, and technology solutions, which include world-class supply chain and distribution operations, dedicated sales professionals, online presence, and a network of Office Depot and OfficeMax retail stores. Headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut and founded in 2002, Atlas and its affiliates own and operate 29 companies that employ more than 60,000 associates across 375 facilities worldwide.

Allwyn buys $1.6-billion stake in fantasy sports operator PrizePicks to expand in US

European lottery giant Allwyn said it will acquire a majority stake in U.S. fantasy sports operator PrizePicks in a deal that values the Atlanta-based company at $1.6 billion. The move is a significant step in Allwyn’s strategy to expand beyond traditional lottery operations and deepen its presence in the U.S. gaming market. The transaction, which is expected to close in the first half of 2026, gives Allwyn a foothold in the fast-growing daily fantasy sports segment and positions PrizePicks as its primary platform for U.S. expansion. Unlike traditional sports betting, daily fantasy sports are considered a game of skill, a concept that allows it to operate in more jurisdictions.

Technology & Internet

Amazon reaches $2.5 billion settlement with FTC over Prime program

Amazon will pay $2.5 billion to settle Federal Trade Commission allegations that the company duped users into paying for Prime memberships, the regulatory agency announced Thursday. The surprise settlement comes as Amazon and the FTC were just three days into the trial in a Seattle federal court. Opening arguments in the case occurred Tuesday, but the settlement allows Amazon to avoid having a jury at the trial return a verdict with potentially larger damages than the settlement with the FTC. The lawsuit, filed by the FTC in June 2023 under the Biden administration, claimed that Amazon deceived tens of millions of customers into signing up for its Prime subscription program and sabotaged their attempts to cancel it. Amazon will pay a $1 billion civil penalty to the FTC and will refund $1.5 billion to an estimated 35 million customers impacted by “unwanted Prime enrollment or deferred cancellation,” the agency said.

Trump approves TikTok deal through executive order, business valued at $14 billion

President Donald Trump on Thursday signed an executive order approving a proposal that would keep TikTok alive in the U.S. in a transaction that Vice President JD Vance said values the business at $14 billion. The deal satisfies the requirements of a national security law requiring China-based ByteDance to sell TikTok’s U.S. operations or face an effective ban in the country, according to the executive order. Under the terms, which China must still approve, a new joint-venture company will oversee TikTok’s U.S. business, with ByteDance retaining less than a 20% stake. Enterprise tech giant Oracle, Silver Lake and the Abu Dhabi-based MGX investment fund will be main investors in TikTok’s U.S. business, controlling a roughly 45% stake in the entity, while ByteDance investors and new holders will own 35%.

Oura ring maker raising $875M Series E, bringing valuation to $11B, report says

Oura Health Oy, the maker of the Oura health and fitness ring, is raising $875 million in a new Series E financing round valuing it around $10.9 billion, according to a new report from Bloomberg. The round, which is expected to close by the end of the month, would double the company’s $5 billion valuation from its Series D round announced last December. The report notes that the Series E round could still exceed $900 million. Oura has sold 5.5 million rings to date, a notable increase from the 2.5 million reported in June 2024. The company is expected to generate more than $1 billion in revenue this year, doubling the $500 million it made in 2024. As for 2026, the company forecasts sales to exceed $1.5 billion.

Finance & Economy

Core inflation rate held at 2.9% in August, as expected

Core inflation was little changed in August, according to the Federal Reserve’s primary forecasting tool, likely keeping the central bank on pace for interest rate reductions ahead. The personal consumption expenditures price index posted a 0.3% gain for the month, putting the annual headline inflation rate at 2.7%, the Commerce Department reported on Sept 26. Excluding food and energy, the more closely followed core PCE price level was 2.9% on an annual basis after rising 0.2% for the month. The headline annual inflation rate increased slightly from 2.6% in July, while the core rate remained unchanged. All the numbers were in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast.

Powell says slowing labor market prompted rate cut, sees ‘challenging situation’ ahead

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Sept 23 that weakness in the labor market is outweighing concerns about stubborn inflation, leading to a decision he backed to lower the central bank’s key interest rate last week. The Federal Open Market Committee’s first cut of the year came amid signs that both supply and demand of workers are waning at the same time that the near-term impact from tariffs has pushed inflation higher. At such times, Powell said, during a speech to business leaders in Providence, Rhode Island, the Fed’s job is to “balance both sides of our dual mandate” for stable prices and low unemployment. “Near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside — a challenging situation,” he said.a

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