The Weekly Consensus

The Weekly Consensus

Maeghan Thompson

Story of the Week

U.S. sets new tariffs at 10% to 12.5% on 60 trade partners

The U.S. trade representative announced a wave of tariffs on dozens of economies Thursday to replace President Donald Trump’s temporary 10% tariff, which expired.  Sixty trading partners, including all of America’s most important ones, will face tariffs of 10% to 12.5%, according to a fact sheet. The new duties took effect at 12:01 a.m. ET Friday.  Some of the trading partners facing a 10% tariff include Canada, Mexico, India and the United Kingdom.  The U.K. tariff closely mirrors a deal that Trump and then-Prime Minister Keir Starmer reached last year to lower tariffs on U.K. imports to the U.S. to 10%.  Taiwan and the European Union, which is the largest single U.S. trading partner, will face up to a 12.5% tariff rate. The new rate announced Thursday appears to lower the 15% cap Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed upon last year.

Apparel & Footwear

Nike to Tighten Online Sales in China Amid ‘Fragmented’ Marketplace

Nike is tightening control over its China business by ending online sales through most third-party distributors and shifting shoppers to its own website, app, and official storefronts on major platforms such as Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin. The move, which begins in January, is designed to reduce fragmentation, improve brand consistency, and help Nike rebuild pricing discipline in a market that has become increasingly important to its turnaround. The company is also pairing the distribution reset with a broader push to strengthen local product creation and elevate the in-store experience through its retail partners. The strategy reflects Nike’s effort to regain control of its brand presentation and revive growth in China after persistent sales pressure.

Reformation targets $1 billion valuation with IPO

Reformation is targeting a valuation of up to $1 billion through its initial public offering. The direct-to-consumer fashion brand’s offering of more than 14 million shares of common stock is expected to be priced between $15 and $17. Nearly 9.5 million of those shares are from Reformation, with the rest from certain existing stockholders. An additional 2.1 million shares of common stock from selling stockholders could also be available for purchase by underwriters under a 30-day option. Reformation expects to net about $134.5 million from the IPO, assuming a price of $16 per share. The brand — which expects to have just over 59 million shares of common stock outstanding after the offering — plans to use about $125 million of the net proceeds to partially repay a loan. Reformation also intends to use about $9.5 million of the net proceeds to purchase more outstanding shares and stock options, per an updated S-1 filing.

Sporting Goods & Leisure

Nike to cut off thousands of online distributors in China, restructure digital footprint

Nike is planning to cut off thousands of online distributors in China beginning in January as the sneaker giant looks to clean up what’s become a messy digital marketplace and get the region back to growth, the company said.  Starting next year, Nike’s online footprint will shift primarily to the retailer’s official website and app, and the storefronts it operates on Tmall, JD.com and Douyin, some of China’s largest online marketplaces and social platforms.  Currently, consumers can shop Nike through all of those channels as well as thousands of other online storefronts powered by Nike’s brick-and-mortar partners in the region and a network of secondary distributors. While the vast digital network has led to widespread consumer access to Nike’s products, it’s also created an inconsistent branding and pricing experience and hampered the company’s efforts to reverse a sales decline in the region.

Bluestone Equity Partners Leads $55 Million Investment in Poolhouse to Expand Tech-Enabled Cue Sports Platform

Bluestone Equity Partners has led a $55 million growth equity investment in Poolhouse, the technology-enabled cue sports company founded by Steve and Dave Jolliffe, the entrepreneurs behind Topgolf and Puttshack, to accelerate global expansion of its proprietary BillyQ technology platform and premium entertainment venues.  The investment positions Poolhouse to capitalize on the growing market for competitive social entertainment by bringing advanced technology and data-driven gameplay to cue sports, a category with more than 200 million weekly players worldwide and an estimated $35 billion total addressable market.

Garmin Buys TrainingPeaks and TrainHeroic

Garmin announced that it has acquired both TrainingPeaks and TrainHeroic, bringing together the technology wearables company with the high-powered analytics, athlete relationship, and training platform.  Garmin is by far the largest sports-specific wearables brand in the marketplace, only outpaced by general electronics brands such as Apple in terms of overall market share.  The deal sees Garmin expand its presence on the analytics and athlete relationship side of the space.

Cosmetics & Pharmacy

Merit lands minority investment from Vasiliki Petrou-led Semcap Beauty & Wellness

Merit has received a minority investment from investment firm Semcap’s Beauty & Wellness vertical to fuel the next stage of growth for the US minimalist brand. The investment was led by Vasiliki Petrou, Managing Partner at Semcap Beauty and Wellness, who was also the founder and ex-CEO of Unilever Prestige. Although the exact funding amount was not disclosed, the investment will fuel the brand’s ongoing growth and globalisation goals.

IFF sells natural ingredients business

IFF said it will sell its portfolio of functional ingredients and natural colors to nutraceutical firm SuanNutra for an undisclosed amount. The deal, set to close by the end of the year, covers IFF’s botanical extracts, vitamins and minerals, and food enhancement assets, including its range of natural colors and antioxidants. The sale comes approximately two months after the flavor and fragrance giant said it would sell its food ingredients business to CVC Capital Partners for $4.3 billion in a bid to improve profitability.

Eli Lilly makes an investment in smart ring manufacturer Oura Health

US-based pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly (publ.) has made an equity investment in Oura Health, a Finnish-American firm specializing in health-tracking wearables and applications. The funds will be used to accelerate the development of connected care and metabolic health tools. Oura, which believes healthcare is becoming more holistic and integrated into daily life, has recently introduced GLP-1 Insights, a feature that combines biometric data with GLP-1-specific context. Oura Health, which was last valued at USD 11.5bn in a Series E funding round in 2025, has confidentially filed for a US IPO in May this year.

Discounters & Department Stores

Lord & Taylor Revives Private Label Strategy

Lord & Taylor has relaunched a private‑label strategy with the debut of the Heritage Collection, a curated line that the revived department‑store brand is selling first on its marketplace and positioning for wider distribution via licensing, wholesale and off‑price partners. Sina Yenel, Lord & Taylor’s chief strategy officer, framed the drop as a return to the company’s merchandising DNA and said the Heritage Collection is just the first chapter of a broader brand rebuild that could include home textiles, daywear and a future return to brick‑and‑mortar.

Ross Accelerates Brick-and-Mortar Expansion with Nearly 50 New Locations

Ross Stores said it is continuing to expand its brick-and-mortar footprint, opening new Ross Dress for Less and dd’s Discounts stores as part of its broader store-growth plan for fiscal 2026. The retailer said the new locations build on strong new-store performance in 2025 and support its long-term target of roughly 2,900 Ross stores and 700 dd’s Discounts locations nationwide. The expansion underscores Ross’s confidence in the off-price model and its ability to keep taking share from value-conscious consumers even as the broader retail environment remains uneven.

Emerging Consumer Companies

Smash Foods, better-for-you jam brand, raises $18 million

Smash Foods cofounders Anna Peck and Steven Ford announced that the company has closed a fresh funding round of $18 million led by legacy consumer growth firm, L Catterton. The Family Fund and Eclair Partners also contributed. The two entrepreneurs started with a simple passion for health through food and have gone from delivering homemade jams in the back of their Subaru to gaining a major investment from one of the nation’s leading consumer growth funds, on the road to becoming the next classic American grocery brand. Surpassing 10,000 doors nationwide, Smash Foods has more than tripled its business in the past year and has driven past profitability. The valuation was a significant markup to its 2025 Series A round. The husband-and-wife business partners began their entrepreneurial journey together when they met while working at another booming food startup, Blue Apron, prior to its acquisition by Wonder Group.

Stantt Acquires Knitwear Brand Vastrm to Become a Multi-Brand Platform

Stantt has acquired Vastrm, the direct‑to‑consumer men’s knitwear brand, as part of a push to become a multi‑brand menswear platform and broaden its ready‑to‑wear assortment. The deal, with terms undisclosed, adds Vastrm’s made‑to‑order polos, pullovers and knit constructions to Stantt’s tech‑enabled product and fulfillment stack, giving the buyer immediate access to premium knit SKUs and fit expertise that complement its custom sizing capabilities.

Food & Beverage

Intersnack to take Utz Brands private for $2.9B

After six years operating as a public company, Utz Brands Inc. will once again function as a private entity. Utz, a U.S. manufacturer of branded salty snacks, and Intersnack Group GmbH & Co. KG, a multinational savory snack manufacturer based in Germany, have entered into a definitive agreement that allows Intersnack to acquire all outstanding shares of Utz’s Class A Common Stock for $14.25 per share in cash. The price represents a premium of approximately 91% over the July 20 closing price and an enterprise value of approximately $2.9 billion.

The Vita Coco Company Announces the Acquisition of Copra, Inc.

The Vita Coco Company, Inc., a leading high-growth platform of better-for-you beverage brands, announced that the Company acquired Copra, Inc. one of the leading producers of super-premium Thai Nam Hom coconut water. Copra has built a differentiated position in the super-premium cold-chain coconut water segment, supported by expertise in Thai Nam Hom sourcing, an extract-and-fill-on-site operating model, an emerging branded business, and a very strong private label business. The transaction gives Vita Coco a platform to participate in this attractive, fast-growing segment of the coconut water category where the Company does not currently compete. The transaction closed on July 22, 2026. The purchase price consisted of an upfront consideration of $175 million paid at closing, subject to customary closing adjustments, with additional earnout consideration to be paid in 2029 based on 2028 financial performance with a floor of $45 million and a cap of $100 million. The initial purchase price consisted of 80% cash on hand with the balance paid in Vita Coco common stock.

Final Boss Sour gaming-themed sour candy brand raises capital from Mondelez Venture Arm SnackFutures

Final Boss Sour, the gaming-themed better-for-you snack alternative brand known for its bold, retro-gaming-inspired sour snacks, and built in studio by Science Inc, announced that it has raised a strategic funding round. The round includes new investors Evolution VC Partners, The Angel Group, Mondelez International SnackFutures Ventures and others. Final Boss Sour will soon be available at Walmart, Kroger, H-E-B, Wegmans and Hy-Vee, with launches planned at Target and 7-Eleven this fall. Built around real fruit snacks, gaming culture and a social-first growth strategy, Final Boss Sour has rapidly grown into one of the fastest-growing sour snack brands in the country.

Grocery & Restaurants

Albertsons stock plunges on lowered outlook, softened grocery trends

Shares of grocer Albertsons sank more than 20% on Thursday after the company lowered its fiscal 2026 outlook, citing softer demand and a more cautious consumer. The company said it is now “moving decisively” to invest in the customer experience because it believes that will improve its growth trajectory. “In the first quarter, our digital and pharmacy businesses continued to deliver strong growth, while core grocery faced increasing pressure from softer industry unit trends and a more cautious consumer,” CEO Susan Morris said in a statement. The company’s outlook cut comes amid broader signs that U.S. consumers have scaled back their grocery trips. Food inflation and tighter budgets due to high gas prices, among other factors, appear to be hurting spending.

Biscuit Belly acquires Maple Street Biscuit Company

Louisville, Kentucky-based brunch concept Biscuit Belly has acquired Maple Street Biscuit Company, a subsidiary of Cracker Barrel. The acquisition adds 34 Maple Street locations to Biscuit Belly’s footprint, more than tripling its growth. Those locations will be converted to the Biscuit Belly brand throughout the next 18 to 24 months. Biscuit Belly, which currently has 15 locations, is targeting over 60 restaurants by the end of 2028. “Acquiring an iconic brand like Maple Street, one of the original gourmet biscuit sandwich concepts, was not on my 2026 bingo card,” Biscuit Belly Founder and CEO Chad Coulter said in a statement. “Two of the biggest headwinds that growing brands encounter are the time required to find and build locations, and the difficulty of finding great teams. When we looked at Maple Street’s geography, footprints, and established teams, a light bulb went off.”

Home & Road

Sleep Country Canada wins bid to acquire Sleep Number

A bankruptcy judge has approved the sale of substantially all of Sleep Number Corp.‘s assets and ongoing business operations to Sleep Country Canada Inc., clearing the last major hurdle in a Chapter 11 process that began in June. The deal, which closed a competitive auction process, is expected to close by July 31. The buyer is officially SNBR Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Sleep Country Canada. According to court filings in the case, pending in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York, the total adjusted cash consideration in the deal rose to $122 million from $100 million in Sleep Country Canada’s original stalking-horse bid. The increase came from amendments made after Sleep Country Canada’s bid was selected as the winner at a July 13 auction, including the removal of a cap on cure costs, the removal of a processor reserve reduction, and the buyer’s assumption of severance liabilities and accounts payable. Brooklyn Bedding, part of 3Z Brands, which submitted a qualified bid ahead of the bid deadline, was named back-up bidder. The amount of Brooklyn Bedding’s bid was not disclosed in court filings. A late effort by Sleep Number’s former CEO Shelly Ibach fizzled shortly after the filing was made.

Tractor Supply Lowers Full-Year Guidance After Comps, Profits Slip in Q2

The second quarter fell short of expectations for Tractor Supply Co. as comparable sales declined due to fewer transactions. Net income was $360.7 million, or 69 cents per diluted share, versus $430 million, or 81 cents per diluted share, in the year-previous quarter. Adjusted for one-time events, net income was $423.5 million, or 81 cents per diluted share. The company didn’t post an adjusted net income in the year-before quarter. A Zacks Investment Research analyst consensus estimate called for adjusted diluted earnings per share of 83 cents on revenues of $4.62 billion. Comparable sales decreased 1.5% year over year in the quarter as transaction count slipped 1.7% and average ticket gained 0.2%. Net sales increased to $4.54 billion from $4.44 billion in the year-before period, Tractor Supply reported, with the advance driven by new store openings partially offset by the comps decline.

Jewelry & Luxury

21% Surge in Richemont Jewelry Sales

Richemont’s jewelry sales surged by 21% (at actual exchange rates, 24% at constant) in the three months to 30 June, as demand for high-end items remained strong. The Swiss luxury conglomerate said its four jewelry maisons – Buccellati, Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels and Vhernier had seen “excellent growth”, and had enjoyed a seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Revenue from jewelry for the quarter was EUR 4.7 billion (USD 5.4 billion). Sales of watches – from maisons including Vacheron Constantin, Jaeger-LeCoultre and A. Lange & Sohne – saw notably slower growth, up by 6% (8% at constant exchange rates). Revenue from watches for the quarter was EUR 873 million (USD 997 million). Overall the company reported group sales up 17% (20% at constant exchange rates) to EUR 6.3 billion (USD 7.2 billion). Organic growth was almost twice the level of a forecast of 11%.

Royal Pop Frenzy Helps Lift Swatch Group’s H1 Sales but Net Profit Still Shrinks

Swatch Group is showing signs of improvement with an uptick in sales in the first half of 2026. The Swiss watchmaking company said Tuesday that net sales grew 8.5 percent at constant exchange in the six months ended June 30, reaching 3.12 billion Swiss francs. Attributing the increase to “a solid momentum across all price segments and on every continent,” it noted a marked acceleration in the second quarter’s sales, which were up 9.4 percent at constant exchange rates. Operating profit reached 52 million Swiss francs, down 23.5 percent compared to the same period in 2025. The figure was weighed down by currency headwinds, which left a 200 million Swiss francs dent, and the production segment, as Swatch chose to keep factories and jobs intact rather than cut hours. Net income stood at 16 million Swiss francs.

De Beers Sale: Ex-CEO’s Consortium is Frontrunner

Anglo American has selected a preferred bidder for De Beers, its loss-making diamond division. The Global Diamond Consortium, led by former De Beers CEO Gareth Penny, has emerged as the frontrunner, ahead of two other shortlisted bidders that have not officially been identified. Botswana, which currently owns 15% of De Beers, is still expected to increase its share, and fellow diamond producers Angola and Namibia are expected to join the new ownership structure alongside private investors. Penny took over as CEO at De Beers in March 2006 after Gary Ralfe’s retirement and announced his resignation in August 2010. He was nonexecutive chairman of Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), Russia’s largest diversified mining and metals company, until the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and is currently nonexecutive chairman of Ninety One Plc and Ninety One Ltd, the asset management group.

Temperley London has a New CEO and Design Director

Temperley London has appointed Morgaine McGee as chief executive officer brining more than two decades of global fashion experience as the British luxury label enters its next chapter. The move comes shortly after founder Alice Temperley stepped away from the company, making this a meaningful reset rather than a routine hire. The brand said the new leadership is intended to showcase a refreshed vision, which could signal changes in wholesale focus, direct-to-consumer execution, and product expansion beyond its core occasionwear base.

Asia Lifts Moncler’s Quarterly Revenue as New CEO Looks to Expand Business to All Seasons

Moncler Group said second-quarter revenue rose 5% at constant exchange rates to €409.3 million, driven by strong demand in Asia while weaker tourism weighed on sales in Europe. Revenue at the Moncler brand, the group’s largest division, grew 12% in Asia, led by robust performance in China and South Korea, while the Americas also expanded modestly, supporting the group’s broader recovery. First‑half operating profit climbed to €245.4 million from €224.8 million a year earlier, reflecting improved margins even as Moncler works to diversify beyond seasonal outerwear.

Technology & Internet

CloudKitchens owner Atoms raises $1.7B to automate food and more

Atoms, the newly formed parent company of CloudKitchens, has raised $1.7 billion to further its plan to automate restaurants, cars, and mining, CEO Travis Kalanick announced Wednesday on X. The equity investment was led by formidable venture firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), with support from others, including Uber, the company Kalanick co-founded and later left amid accusations that he’d fostered a toxic workplace. In his X post, Kalanick said the latest funding will allow Atoms to merge its various businesses, which include CloudKitchens ghost kitchens, Lab37 food robots, and Pronto, a maker of autonomous mining vehicles that Atoms recently acquired. And he said it will help Atoms finish the job he started at Uber of “[digitizing] the physical world,” or using software to control things like transportation and food production. His vision for Atoms is to become the infrastructure for this digital world by developing software, sensors, robotics, and AI that can be used to automate entire industries.

Alphabet beats on revenue, GOOGL stock sinks on capex hike

Google parent Alphabet reported better-than-expected revenue for the second quarter on Wednesday, driven by growth of 82% in its cloud business. But the stock sank in extended trading as the company lifted its forecast for capital expenditures. Google now expects capex for the year of $195 billion to $205 billion, up from the $180 billion to $190 billion forecast provided last quarter. The company is pouring money into artificial intelligence infrastructure to keep pace with booming demand. “We’re still in a supply-constrained environment,” finance chief Anat Ashkenazi told analysts on the company’s earnings call. “I think we’ve said this now for multiple quarters in a row, and we are seeing very strong demand both from external cloud customers as well as across the business.” As AI competition heats up, Google said its Gemini App now has 950 million monthly active users and can process 22 billion tokens per minute.

Finance & Economy

World Cup hands US economy $20B boost

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has given a $20 billion boost to the US economy, according to Bank of America, sparking massive local booms in host cities and helping propel the strongest surge in consumer spending in more than four years.  BofA CEO Brian Moynihan said half of the tournament’s $40 billion in fresh economic activity has been funneled to the US, and that the footprint extends far beyond the turnstiles. The bank’s 70 million consumer customers, who spend more than $400 billion a month, are shelling out 5% to 6% more than a year ago.  Americans are spending at their fastest clip since early 2022. Total credit and debit card spending jumped 6.3% year over year in June, or 5.6% after stripping out gasoline, economists at the financial giant found.

US weekly jobless claims plunge to lowest since 1969

The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits for the first time unexpectedly fell ‌last week to the lowest since the 1960s, indicating the U.S. job market continues on an even keel and leaving Federal Reserve officials to keep their focus on containing inflation.  Covering the survey week for the national employment report for July that will be issued ​in about two weeks, Thursday’s report was the latest to signal continued stability in the labor market. Meanwhile, the number of ​people on jobless benefit rolls for more than a week, a proxy for hiring, fell to a six-week low of 1.796 million in the week ended July 11.  The unemployment rate dipped unexpectedly in June to a one-year low of 4.2%, although that was more the result of a decline in ​the workforce than a boom in hiring.

US business activity hits 8-month high but supply strains, costs rise

US business activity expanded at its fastest pace in eight months during July. Strong domestic demand for services offset cooling factory production and rising costs. Service providers saw their highest activity levels since November 2025. Manufacturing gauges fell to their lowest point since March. Supply chain delays and price pressures intensified, impacting growth and demand.  Activity at service providers climbed to 53.6, the highest since November 2025, as World Cup and July 4th celebrations boosted demand in hospitality and other service industries.